Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 One bad run just throw it away. Euro isn't feeling well tonight. EPS is up to hour 126 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Back. Thanks for taking over. Yeah Day 10 looks amazing. PV lobe moving southwestward and arctic ridge bridge coming which would direct the PV right to us. It's just so far out. The ridge merger doesn't begin until Day 7.5 to 8, so we have to pump the breaks a bit and also not take every model run as gospel. Take it at face value. Onto 6z, 12z. C'MON!!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Europe just declared war. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ensembles are more important. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, wxmet said: Ensembles are more important. Of course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Back. Thanks for taking over. Yeah Day 10 looks amazing. PV lobe moving southwestward and arctic ridge bridge coming which would direct the PV right to us. It's just so far out. The ridge merger doesn't begin until Day 7.5 to 8, so we have to pump the breaks a bit and also not take every model run as gospel. Take it at face value. Onto 6z, 12z. C'MON!!!! lol I was thinking the same thing. It looks like it's trying to merge at day 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Can’t take 1 run and put a fork in it. The main goods aren’t even supposed to be coming until after day 10 anyways...which isn’t visible on the EURO. 2 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 One thing really working for the Euro that would increase winds tomorrow night is the low continues to rapidly deepen well after landfall. This creates a very tight pressure gradient as the low swings through. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Conflicting reports! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Bad run. Throw it out. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Strong jet and that low is deepening at a pretty good clip at landfall. We will see! Would be a big win for the euro if it verifies without much support from other models. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: One thing really working for the Euro that would increase winds tomorrow is the low continues to rapidly deepen well after landfall. This creates a very tight pressure gradient as the low swings through. I can’t read the times on the map, when are they supposed to hit? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 58 minutes ago, MossMan said: .49” here. Dry day up your way, approaching 3" on the day here now, might make it in the next 46 minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: I can’t read the times on the map, when are they supposed to hit? First is 10pm tomorrow, second is 4am Wednesday, and third is 10am Wednesday. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ensemble still looks good... just a bad op run. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is why we have ensembles... OP is less amplified than the EPS mean. 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bonovox said: Not as good as the 12Z, but still pretty good. We just had a streak going where every run was better than the last. That wasn't going to continue. It it had, then we would be headed toward all time record cold when we got there. We were just spoiled by the streak of better and better runs. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Difference in 850 temps is even more noticeable. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 EPS looks pretty decent yup. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Difference in 850 temps is even more noticeable. This one looks better I think it's the same right? Except this one is also the mean. Edit: lol I'm dumb. I just releasied the mistake. I thought you were posting a 12z and 00z comparison... Not a EMCWF and EPS one... lol blonde moment 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonovox Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Day 10-15 of the 00z EPS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 45 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Dry day up your way, approaching 3" on the day here now, might make it in the next 46 minutes. Bam, 3.01" for 1/11, last 10 minutes made up the deficit!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 The one thing I’ve been concern about is the ridge continuing to trend further west. At some point we really need it to stop, but I’m not really liking the trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bonovox said: Day 10-15 of the 00z EPS. Very nice. Appreciate all the EPS maps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 For @DJ Droppin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Bam, 3.01" for 1/11, last 10 minutes made up the deficit!! Wow. That is some wet soil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: For @DJ Droppin Thanks. Can see the low level blast intensifying the last 3 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 00z GEFS for comparison 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Thanks. Can see the low level blast intensifying the last 3 days. Yeah looks like you might stay below freezing for a couple of days 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Yeah looks like you might stay below freezing for a couple of days Definitely. In this kind of pattern I'm always 2-3 F colder than the airport too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, Cloud said: The one thing I’ve been concern about is the ridge continuing to trend further west. At some point we really need it to stop, but I’m not really liking the trend. This is something to look out for. The features to the west of the high are weakening while the features to the east are strengthening. Nothing to keep the GOA high in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 I have a bad feeling the overnight run is going to be a step back but I hope to be pleasantly surprised. Not sure I'll be able to stay up for it tho. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 That’s a pretty ridiculous long range blocking signal on the GEFS. Placement is just a little wonky. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, einsteinjr said: Wow. That is some wet soil. It's insane, 14" of rain in 11 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: It's insane, 14" of rain in 11 days. Aberdeen gets hammered with rain. Fun fact, Ik the owner of the Aberdeen mall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 PNA still looks good. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 How is the 6z NAM 3km handling the winds tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 52 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Aberdeen gets hammered with rain. Fun fact, Ik the owner of the Aberdeen mall I wouldn't call it a mall these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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