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Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak


Tom

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It appears that Ol' Man Winter is coming out of the gates early this year and the regions first chance of seeing accumulating snow is on the table.  There still is alot of uncertainty if the storm heading out of the Rockies will phase and spin up into a formidable storm or rather produce post frontal snows behind a frigid early season arctic blast.  Let's discuss.

 

 

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It appears that Ol' Man Winter is coming out of the gates early this year and the regions first chance of seeing accumulating snow is on the table.  There still is alot of uncertainty if the storm heading out of the Rockies will phase and spin up into a formidable storm or rather produce post frontal snows behind a frigid early season arctic blast.  Let's discuss.

 

I would love to lock in this map!

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This morning's Euro isn't quite as bad with the cold, and has no snow for Iowa.  This run swings a little more troughiness into the Gulf of Alaska, which doesn't allow the west coast ridge to bump northward as much, which then leads to less digging of our cold trough.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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From NWS Hastings this AM- 

 

THE MILD EARLY NOVEMBER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY CHANGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR LOW MIGRATES SOUTH FROM CANADA. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR SETTLING IN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL PLUMMET EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE FRIGID AIR WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY LIKELY TO STRUGGLE IN THE 30S...A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM. A STRONG 1040MB
SFC HIGH IS POISED TO BUILD SOUTH FM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD NOVEMBER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
ANOTHER FRIGID DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT WX CONDITIONS DRY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PCPN WHICH
WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
MONITOR. AS IT IS...ENJOY THE MILD WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS
CHANGES ARE HEADED OUR WAY EARLY NEXT WEEK BY VETERANS DAY

 

Here comes the cold let the fun again.  Hopefully we get at least a little snow.

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Parallel GFS (18z) total snowfall:

 

 

Sweet!

 

La Crosse AFD with an interesting tidbit regarding temps next week:

THE GFS

HAS ITS COLDEST AIR BETWEEN -10 AND -14C ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS

ENSEMBLE RETURN FREQUENCY SHOWS THIS IS THE LOWEST EVER RECORDED

SINCE 1985 FOR THAT DAY.

 

I take it that's at the 850mb level?

 

Local forecasters calling for highs in the mid 30s Monday and Tuesday around here.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I hope these aren't weenie maps like Weatherbell's from last year?  Seems awfully generous on the southern extent of snows.

 

Hey if South Carolina can get snow in November, we can get snow next week! haha

 

Money is right - Those are brand new maps this year.

 

There's always the possibility in seeing a surprise dusting to a couple inches with the Arctic front. I know that happens usually once every winter.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Hey if South Carolina can get snow in November, we can get snow next week! haha

 

Money is right - Those are brand new maps this year.

 

There's always the possibility in seeing a surprise dusting to a couple inches with the Arctic front. I know that happens usually once every winter.

Especially along a tight temp boundary and baroclinic zone...we may see some surprise even 48 hours out.  Saw this plenty of times last year.

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Parallel GFS

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

This storm has a lot of potential, just need it to dig some more...hopefully when more data comes into the models over the next day or so we can start seeing something better.

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Is the parallel GFS new this year? Never knew they had this.

 

Yes, brand new!

 

Liking the "older" OP GFS this run!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This is just fascinating to see winter come during the second week of November.  Just amazing to see these kind of weather maps so early in the season.  I can't imagine what this pattern will do Dec-Mar.  This nation may set a snow cover record this year.

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Hmm. Wish we had that HR 132 panel. 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

Probably a 1002mb low in Illinois or something?

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