james1976 Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Every model has the heavy snow in exact same area. Lucky dogs up there! Maybe the 2nd low will develop a bit more. I could be wrong but it looks like 12z GFS is trying to develop the 2nd low too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 It looks like it really tries to strengthen the low as it passes by Chicago. Another nice band of snow develops that affects E. IA/most of Wisconsin. GFS tried to do the same thing too. These minor changes will be better analyzed as we get closer and it seems the pieces to this system are trying to come together for a larger snow band than what was originally shown. Good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 A bit off topic, but I just got the free trial of Weatherbell and I love it so far. I had Accuweather Pro last winter and so far I like Weatherbell a bit better. The one thing I miss is the text data from Accuweather Pro. But, Weatherbell has more user-friendly maps and also you don't have to wait until the whole run is done before you can view the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 If something like the EURO/GGEM can happen, but a tad SE with second wave that would be awesome! I'm surprised there is no winter storm watches up yet - and more special wx statements. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 That secondary low could be interesting. If that thing can generate some more energy we could be talking some WWA's in our area, as well as for you guys out in Chicago! If the 12z GFS Parallel pans out though, my family is really in for it. Just a bullseye right over the Rochester/Red Wing area. Unreal amounts on are being spit out again and again on that model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 These minor changes will be better analyzed as we get closer and it seems the pieces to this system are trying to come together for a larger snow band than what was originally shown. Good sign. We'll see. Should hopefully have this locked down by 12z tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 GFS Ensembles: 60: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f60.html 66: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f66.html 72: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f72.html 78: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f78.html Couple GGEM type solutions in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 GFS Ensembles: 60: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f60.html 66: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f66.html 72: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f72.html 78: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f78.html Couple GGEM type solutions in there. I'm seeing very little in the way of a secondary wave on those though, maybe a dusting to a sloppy inch for those who see it go by during the nocturnal hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 MKE AFD: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF INTEREST OVER THE MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATEDSNOWFALL FORECAST HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT NORTHWARD SINCEYESTERDAY MORNING. THE MKX FORECAST AREA NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ENDUP WITH MAINLY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND NOT MUCH OF IT...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOWSHOWING SNOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK PARKED OVER THE GREATLAKES REGION WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSUREOVER THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPWILL EXPAND EAST ALONG THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CENTRAL WIESTABLISHED FROM THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONT. THE 500MBFLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS ASHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIGS INTO THE PLAINSAND MIDWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDENORTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY AND PULL COLDER AIR INTOSOUTHERN WI BEHIND IT. THIS COULD LEAD TO HIGHER THAN FORECASTSNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST WI IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.YESTERDAY THERE WAS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ABOUTQPF WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS PLACED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. THISMORNING... THE BETTER AGREEMENT IS WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND NOTWITH THE QPF. THE WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION /PMDHMD/ FAVOREDTHE 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS/00Z UKMET FOR QPF AND EXPLAINED SOMEWEAKNESSES FOR THE 00Z ECWMF/NAM QPF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 1004.3 L just SW of Chicago at HR 72 on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 1004.3 L just SW of Chicago at HR 72 on the Euro. 850's look warm up into Wisco...Wx Bell not loading yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Yeah looks like LSE to GB gets a pretty good storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Havent had a real november snow in a long time. Skeptical Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z Euro...looks like this is going towards a Northwoods special...develops the SLP near N IL/S MI but too warm in S WI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 12Z Euro does show around 0.4 QPF for the Chicago area, but it's mostly rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Scott, do you have the text output for OSH at all? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Man, just keeps going further north. Does it get sampled tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Scott, do you have the text output for OSH at all? No, I have weatherbell. I was just estimating the QPF based on the precip maps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Man, just keeps going further north. Does it get sampled tonight? Actually, the 12z euro went south from 0z. At least the main band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 12z Euro...looks like this is going towards a Northwoods special...develops the SLP near N IL/S MI but too warm in S WI. I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two.The problem I see with the baraclinic zone is it sets up farther north and the main "push" of arctic air is happening in the Plains states and once the system passes the Lakes feel it. If the pattern upstream on Sunday by the little wave passing through N Wisco/U.P. can push that first front farther south, then yes, I can see the storm track a bit south. You have to look up stream in order for the storm behind it to react where to go. By tomorrow 12z runs it will be fully sampled so we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 I'm really surprised the twin cities office didn't issue a winter storm watch. I suspect it will this afternoon. Right after the hawkeyes destroy the gophers!U of M Graduate. Payback for all those blowouts you did to us at Kinnick North. Kinnick North is dust now!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 What I did like is the 12z runs all shifted south from 0z (at least a little bit) and the NW trend stopped. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of any appreciable snow on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of the snow on this one.Cant see it budging much further south than what the southern camp is showing right now, but I could see the EURO blinking south to catch up with the rest of the models. MSP looks like the place to be at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 I don't think there is going to be much more of a change. We're within 36 hours of the event for most places. Also hasn't this storm been sampled by now? Before, Tom said by the 0Z runs last night it would be sampled and now I see Tom saying the 12Z runs TOMORROW?? One thing I do know is Nebraska is out of any appreciable snow on this one.You can see the storm hitting British Columbia at 00z Sunday, so partial sampling will be taken, but 12z Sunday you can be sure it would be fully sampled. That's what I was trying to say.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 The problem I see with the baraclinic zone is it sets up farther north and the main "push" of arctic air is happening in the Plains states and once the system passes the Lakes feel it. If the pattern upstream on Sunday by the little wave passing through N Wisco/U.P. can push that first front farther south, then yes, I can see the storm track a bit south. You have to look up stream in order for the storm behind it to react where to go. By tomorrow 12z runs it will be fully sampled so we shall see. Thanks for that further explanation. Some really cold air in back of that disturbance pushing eastward. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 18z NAM coming in way NW of 12z. Brings 40's up into SE WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 NAM takes the low to DBQ and then moves pretty much east into MKE area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 18z NAM...some lolipop totals showing up in the U.P....skiing and snowmobile season will be getting off to an early start if this transpires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Winter Storm Watch posted for: .EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...CRIVITZ 6-12 inches possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 By looking at the watches that have been issued by MPX and GRB, they are not siding with the NAM. More like a GGEM/GFS blend. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 MPX mentions very low confidence in where the band will set up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 I have a feeling that the system will be a bit south of where that maps show due to the baroclinic zone pushing in a bit more. As far as the second low, I think the models are under doing the low level cold air being tugged down behind the first wave. The winds will be offshore at 78 hours, so that throws out the marine influence. The 850 mb's temps just need to crash a little sooner. By 84 hours the area is down near -5°C. Most locations in SE WI wouldn't have a probably getting an inch or two. No recent trends indicate that. Not only that, but the last several days we have generally overachieved with temps vs the forecast, so sadly I'm going to have to assume some more overachieving temps, at least with this trough (that is to say, probably mid 30s vs staying below freezing for highs, which is cold either way, but Monday might hit 50 here lol.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 Cant see it budging much further south than what the southern camp is showing right now, but I could see the EURO blinking south to catch up with the rest of the models. MSP looks like the place to be at the moment. I think MSP will be just north of the main band, Rochester to Green Bay looks to be the place to be as I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 GB current thinking: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/maps/FCST_TotalSnowAmt.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 MKE current thinking: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_WI.png Talks about maybe a couple inches on Tuesday on the backside of the system but mentions that's uncertain at this time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 MKE current thinking: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_WI.png Talks about maybe a couple inches on Tuesday on the backside of the system but mentions that's uncertain at this time. It's funny that the same areas that hogged all the fall severe weather (N Wisconsin esp) are the same areas that are receiving the first big snowfall of fall. Time to share the wealth of interesting weather, Hayward and Rhinelander had some explosive thunderstorms in September and October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 8, 2014 Report Share Posted November 8, 2014 No recent trends indicate that. Not only that, but the last several days we have generally overachieved with temps vs the forecast, so sadly I'm going to have to assume some more overachieving temps, at least with this trough (that is to say, probably mid 30s vs staying below freezing for highs, which is cold either way, but Monday might hit 50 here lol.) You're probably right given that there isn't much snow cover south of Lake Superior. Now if there was, it would be a different story. Hopefully with covering the Northwoods country with snow it will mean the next system to come along with have a strong/significant supply of cold air just to the north of itself.In a way I wish this system would speed back up, but if there isn't snow cover to the north than the cold air supply won't be as strong. 18z GFS hasn't budged really at all. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 9, 2014 Report Share Posted November 9, 2014 This is what the new GFS thinks will fall in the Upper Great Lakes. Northern Plains. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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