Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Only 7 days left till February. What will the final month of winter bring us all!? First 5 day chunk of February, temperature departures. SE ridge starts heating up things! Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think there will be at least 2 significant shots of arctic air this month. The first coming the 1st week and the second the following week. Both more than likely coming after some big storms hit the region. February is likely going to be a very snowy month around these parts as the LRC pattern has at least 2 or 3 bigger storms hitting the region. As for temps, I'm guessing we will average out about 4 or 5 degrees below normal. The 1st of a parade of storms we have to start monitoring already showing up for next weekend. Feb is going to be a fun time tracking these storm systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Strong baroclinic zone develops the first full week of February. CMC Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 00z Euro showing a very wet system next weekend. Right now it's not showing much cold air with it, especially in IN/OH/MI, but things will change in time. Could be our next major storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Been reading that this month will continue to be brutal as far as temps go, but the only difference this month is there will be many more moisture laden storm systems traversing the nation. With a tanking WPO and high latitude blocking, cold air will be entrenched over the eastern 2/3rd's of the Nation. By the end of this month, some cities will be buried with snow and signs pointing that the Midwest/GL region will be hit the hardest. In fact, there are similarities that this winter is similar to '78/'79 and February 1979 was down right brutal with major snows and cold. It will be exciting to see this month unfold in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 i agree that midwest and greatlakes will be the hardest because of the southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Indeed, SE Ridge/-PNA can be our friend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 As Tom alluded to, the LRC is looking quite favorable for our region as we head into February. Naturally, slight shifts and other deviations from the past cycle in mid-December can be anticipated, but the general feel of the mid/late December pattern ought to stay in place. I'm somewhat concerned about suppression with these storms, mainly for the early February system(s?), in the event the polar vortex wants to stick around in Canada. Other than that, I'm liking our chances for February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Snowman, I believe that with a decent SE Ridge, Chicago seems to be in a safe spot for seeing all snow and not necessarily worry about rain/snow line. The LRC also had the systems track to our south as well. Like you said, there will be some deviation in track but I don't think it will affect us to much...maybe downstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 i agree but rapid wx said that we will have an early feb warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 What is this rapid wx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 weather blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I think the departure this month will be higher than January. Thinking there will be Arctic air intrusions, but they will stay shorter periods of time. (SE ridge should prevent departures of over 5° east of a line from Green Bay to Kansas City roughly) Thinking it will be a snowy month for the entire northern part of the nation with wild temperature swings, especially east of the Mid and Upper Mississippi River Valley. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z GFS looking much better in regards to the snow. Through HR 144, 6+ for NE east into Iowa and IL. Closed low near STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ends up going from east of STL through central IN and then the IN/OH borer. 8-10 for Chicago. 6-8 for Milwaukee and 3-5 up towards GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Definitely a much more organized system this run. Let's hope the trend continues in future runs. This could become a monster. Temps in low 20's and loads of moisture with this system. Snow ratios would be 12:1 up to 15:1. Here we go boys and girls! Rough estimate looks like .60+ for ORD... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 It's gonna be a fun Feb. if current trends hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 this could be a big one and we could have one with a foot or more of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Snowman, I believe that with a decent SE Ridge, Chicago seems to be in a safe spot for seeing all snow and not necessarily worry about rain/snow line. The LRC also had the systems track to our south as well. Like you said, there will be some deviation in track but I don't think it will affect us to much...maybe downstate.Agreed. EPS Control snow thru Hour 360 may be a testament to the stormy pattern ahead. Highlights big storm here in IL February 4-6, which fits in relatively OK with a December 14, 2013 system that also impacted us (image of sfc, 500mb map attached as well). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 I liked the extended EURO run a lot better. Not much in the way of below zero temperatures beyond Wednesday except maybe one or two mornings near that mark. The snow prospects were not bad either. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Definitely a much more organized system this run. Let's hope the trend continues in future runs. This could become a monster. Temps in low 20's and loads of moisture with this system. Snow ratios would be 12:1 up to 15:1. Here we go boys and girls! Rough estimate looks like .60+ for ORD... And it's only 5-6 days away to. Love the moisture from pacific feeds into this. Looks like a solid plausible winter storm for part of Plains and into the Lakes region later next week POSSIBLY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 This should probably be kept in the January discussion or start of a new thread? Also. with this storm we could possibly break the January snowfall record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Another storm comes through 2-6 and drops 3-5. Overall, through HR 300 12-16 for Chicago area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Indeed Tony, looks like it sped up this run and will be hitting before the month ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Below normal, but it has a different look. I think this is your Month Nebraska! (western Iowa and Kansas too) 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 The deep purples are gone - that's better. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 this is looking epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012600/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_32.png http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012600/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_33.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Superbowl storm! 12z delayed it till the 3rd. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GGEM also showing the system early in February...loaded with moisture and cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GGEM also showing the system early in February...loaded with moisture and cold air...wow. nice bullseye for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS picking up on the Friday/Saturday system. It could be at least a nice widespread mod snow event from NE to OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nice storm on the GGEM at HR 228.... 985 in N. MI. Also has a 998 low in Chicago around HR 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Nice storm on the GGEM at HR 228.... 985 in N. MI. Also has a 998 low in Chicago around HR 132 Yeah, I saw the first storm of note. That would be quite the active few days, four days between pretty strong cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Could we say...Here Blizzard Blizzard Blizzard??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Take a look at the loads of moisture the 00z GGEM is showing heading into the 1st week of February. CFS was latching on to this idea a while ago producing tons of moisture in our region. Huge temperature gradients this month and storms coming out of the SW will set the stage for juicy systems. It's going to be a fun week tracking these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Could we say...Here Blizzard Blizzard Blizzard??? I will say yum, yum, yum, though I'd prefer it was the Euro or GFS showing this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 euro showing that big storm developing http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_35.png http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_36.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 27, 2014 Report Share Posted January 27, 2014 Boom for the Chicago posters http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012700/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_37.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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