2021 Weather Thread

[Phil]

2021 is gonna do something special. I can feel it.

Anyway, currently 19°F and stagnant here in the smoky mountains. Heading back to Maryland on the 12th.

[Phil]

We’re in a dry/NW flow pattern for awhile. Not much precip of late, only 0.14” here over the last 15 days. Temps pretty close to average, highs in the 30s/40s, lows in the 20s.

Next shortwave swings through overnight into tomorrow AM. Looks mostly dry east of the BR, with typical blustery midwinter conditions around 40mph. Slight chance flurries can spill over the mountains in the forenoon hours, but otherwise dry.

 

 

[Phil]

Some snow squalls moving through early this morning with the cold front. Main squall is still ~ 10 miles to the NW of here.

Currently getting some type of hybrid between rimed snowflakes and graupel/corn snow. Bounces and rolls right off the roofs, but falls like snow. Intriguing.

Still awaiting the wind. Totally calm at the moment. Temperature 30.7°F.

[Phil]

Breezy day with flurries. DCA gusted to 48mph. Turned sunny late in the day.

Late January starting to look interesting in the snowfall department. Hopefully we can cash in. 

[Phil]

Coldest low of the season (so far) this AM at 22.3°F. Which is somehow more pathetic than last winter at this point, which had the warmest minimums on record (seasonal minimum here was 18.7°F which is only ~ 6-7 degrees below average midwinter minimum). Hard to believe we dropped to -1°F in *March* of 2014.

Currently a balmy 52°F with 15-25mph downslope wind. Cold front moves through tonight with a reinforcing shot later tomorrow w/ more CAA. Lows might finally dip below 20°F over the weekend.

[Phil]

Re: winter threats next week. Complex picture as multiple waves eject out of the SW US.

First threat mon/tues has trended warmer aloft..looks like more of an ice threat at the moment, but that’s obviously subject to change.

Next threat thurs/fri could be a more significant snow maker if it isn’t suppressed south and/or sheared apart by confluence.

[Phil]

Winter weather advisory for a coating of snow and a couple tenths of an inch of ice. We’re on the edge of it here so will have to see how it unfolds, but welbulb temps are still below freezing here with precip a few hours away.

Currently 36.7°F, dewpoint 21.6°F.

[Phil]

Mix of rain and sleet as precip begins. Not many snow reports around the area yet..will have to see if the column can cool enough to flip us over but usually that doesn’t happen w/ in-situ CAD.

[Phil]

Got 2/3” of snow/sleet. Now freezing mist at 30.9°F.

[Phil]

Everything glazed over this morning. Not a ton of ice, maybe 0.1” on trees/railings. Pavement slushy.

Archambault signal growing for early next week. Most confident I’ve been all winter for a legit snow threat. We’ll see!

[Phil]

It’s blowing out there today. PWS has already notched multiple gusts above 40mph. Also nippy..temp is 31.3°F with a dewpoint at 13°F and dropping. 

[Phil]

Wind was roaring most of last night. Didn’t get a great night sleep. Diurnal lull from 4-7AM followed by a quick ramp up once again this morning.

In other news, looks like our biggest snowfall of the season so far is in the pipeline for Sunday-Monday. Should be an initial WAA thump (more certain) followed by the more complicated formation of the comma head as the coastal low develops. So it’s more like a miller-B evolution.

Which means we probably have to play with the dryslot to get the best totals. Want to be just above the 700mb low and ride the dryslot without getting in it. Whoever can get the most out of the WAA thump and the comma head will probably score 5-8” of snow. Areas that get dry slotted and/or flip to IP/ZR may end up with 2-4”.

[weatherfan2012]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

Wind was roaring most of last night. Didn’t get a great night sleep. Diurnal lull from 4-7AM followed by a quick ramp up once again this morning.

In other news, looks like our biggest snowfall of the season so far is in the pipeline for Sunday-Monday. Should be an initial WAA thump (more certain) followed by the more complicated formation of the comma head as the coastal low develops. So it’s more like a miller-B evolution.

Which means we probably have to play with the dryslot to get the best totals. Want to be just above the 700mb low and ride the dryslot without getting in it. Whoever can get the most out of the WAA thump and the comma head will probably score 5-8” of snow. Areas that get dry slotted and/or flip to IP/ZR may end up with 2-4”.

It almost as if mother nature knew that Trump the red is out of office and Biden the blue group is in

[Phil]

Winter storm warning for 4-8” here. Tiny flakes just beginning to fall here as of 330AM.

Will be an interesting one to track. Kinda bearish on Monday with the deform band likely to be well off to the north in PA/NJ, but hoping for an inch or two of additional snow.

Currently 31.2/20. Let’s roll.

[Phil]

About 3.3” here so far. Have been getting light snizzle for the last 5-6hrs. Hoping to eek out another 1-2” over the next 36hrs.

[weatherfan2012]

Pattern looking really good going into Febuary lots of potential coming up the ones that went for a Febuary pattern very unlike La nina progressions I serlute them because it looks more and more like a good call.if anything our winter may just be starting lol.

[Phil]

Finally got into some better banding from 5-615pm. Picked up ~ 1”, on top of the ~ 3.5” of snow/ice already on the ground.

Trees still glazed over from the ZR fest this morning. Temp had dropped to 25.9°F so it accreted literally everywhere, even on pavement.

Currently ~ 30.5°F with light snow and a building N/NW breeze.

[Phil]

Wow it’s still snowing lol. Picked up ~ 2” overnight, now have ~ 6” on the ground.

Been going for almost 53 hours now.

[weatherfan2012]

Sure has been an crazy storm to follow.

[Phil]

Roaring wind and blowing snow now. Still a few stray flakes coming down but the accumulating snow has definitely ended.

Pattern going forward looks interesting. Seems we have a lot of winter left to go.

[Phil]

Winter storm warning out for 3-6” of wet snow starting late tonight, continuing until tomorrow afternoon. Gonna be a marginal airmass in the boundary layer, would feel more comfortable if guidance were to bump a bit farther NW here in the come stretch.

Should be in the mid/upper 40s today so will need some dynamic cooling for substantial accumulation.

[Phil]

Got ~ 3/4” of snow. Still coming down but temps have warmed enough that it’s melting faster than it can accumulate.

Currently 33.3°F/31 with moderate snow and a calm wind.

[Phil]

Snow has begun here. Boundary layer temps are toasty, so not expecting much accumulation locally. Maybe a slushy inch at best.

Precip should continue until midday tomorrow. Next wave propagates thru over the weekend, which looks like a ZR fest.

[Phil]

Puking sleet. Got ~ 1/4” of snow before the subsequent changeover and glaciation.

Currently 33.4/31.6.

[weatherfan2012]

As much as la nina sucks it may pay off when  we do have another El nino.El nino winters follwing a few years of la nina are some of our snowest colder winters results 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 came after a 3 year nina.

[Phil]

Ice storm warning just issued by LWX.

So far ~ 0.15” of ice accreditation, could approach 0.3” by sunset. Temp currently 28.2°F.

[weatherfan2012]

It's been a mess for sure.I would not rule out March eather some of the La nina years had our biggest snow events in March it would not surpised me in the least if our biggest snow storm this winter happens in March

[Phil]

It’s a winter wonderland out here. ZR can be pretty as long as it’s not too much.

Approximately ~ 0.2” of ZR, maybe a bit more. Not nearly enough to cause damage so it’s all good.

 

[Phil]

Winter storm warning from 3AM overnight to 6AM Friday. Looks like 3-6” of snow/sleet and 0.1-0.25” of ZR total.

Coldest lows of the season likely Fri/Sat. Amazing we haven’t even dropped into the teens yet..usually hit single digits at least once per year.

[Phil]

Barely snowed at all. Been puking sleet since 6AM, now have about 1” of it on the ground.

[Phil]

Still have a solid 1” sleet glacier. You can walk on it and not fall through.

Chilly day today. Sunny with a subfreezing high and stiff NW breeze. Looking at middle teens tonight, most likely.

[Phil]

Low was 17.6°F last night. Still pathetically warm for a seasonal minimum, but at least we dropped below 20°F.

Awaiting a wintry mix to start the day tomorrow. Prob flips to rain midday, before ending shortly thereafter.

Currently 31°F with a thickening cloud deck and southerly wind.

[Phil]

Got a quick dusting of snow this AM, followed by just under 0.1” of ZR. Didn’t warm above freezing until after most precip had excited.

[Phil]

Wind advisory from 2-6pm tomorrow for gusts to 50mph. Favorable setup for deep mixing and compressional warming.

Could hit mid/upper 50s tomorrow & low 60s Wed.  

[Phil]

7 hours ago, iFred said:

Probably should have pinned this.

Thank u brother.

[Phil]

Wind hit like a ton of bricks at ~ 250pm today, roared for a few hours, and was over by 450pm. Recorded a gust to 48mph, probably stronger at treetops.

High was 57°F here, warmest since Christmas Eve. Should pass 60°F tomorrow. Can really feel the Sun intensifying of late.

[Phil]

Steady, soaking rain this evening with a temp of 36°F. Seeing nearby reports of snow and sleet mixing in, but have not seen anything here.

Looks like a wet weekend in store either way.

[Phil]

Nice crispy 25°F this morning. Midday sun is really intensifying though..felt downright warm today wearing dark clothes, even with a subfreezing wind chill. Car interior got uncomfortably warm as well after 20mins in the lot.

It’s coming

[Phil]

A nippy 21.6°F this AM. The NW wind completely died off last night, for the first time since Wednesday.

Back up and blowing this AM but not nearly as strong.

[Phil]

Record highs at all three airports today.

Hit 80°F here. Kind of a shock to the system. But it was very comfortable with the low humidity.

Another mild day tomorrow but given the frontal passage there’ll be some clouds/showers around.

[Phil]

Wind is roaring this afternoon. Must be at least 50mph at the treetops.

DCA has hit 55mph and they’re at sea level.

[Phil]

There’s blowing dust/dirt thanks to the dry weather lately. Probably lots of pollen mixed in too.

[Phil]

Looks like BWI 54mph, DCA 55mph, IAD 46mph. In other words, it’s March.

Calming down a bit here. Though I suspect there’ll be another uptick as CAA increases later this evening.

[Phil]

Raining pretty good today. Just passed 0.6” here, DCA is at 1.5”. Over-performer for sure.

Stretch of warm weather begins tomorrow.  Could be 4 straight of 70s with 80s possible Friday, along with some gusty W/SW winds in the 40-50mph range, possibly stronger further N.

[Phil]

Now ~ 1.1” on the day. Badly needed.

Should help temper fire concerns around here on Friday.

[Phil]

Warm, windy morning. Tulip poplars, willows, and a few other species are leafing out. Temp is ~ 77°F, dewpoint 63°F. Very comfortable.

Wind advisory in effect for 50mph gusts this afternoon. Already had one ~ 40mph gust ~ 15mins ago. Front is crossing the Blue Ridge now, where a high wind warning is in effect for 60-65mph gusts.

[Phil]

Raining with some distant booming thunder as of 615AM. Looks like elevated convection is developing ahead of the warm front. First thunderstorm of 2021!

Should be a dynamic day. We’ll probably get (briefly) warm sectored this afternoon ahead of the cold front, w/ a strong wind field to tap into and modest sfc CAPE. Squall line/T-storms should blow through this afternoon along/just ahead of the cold front, followed by strong gradient winds gusting to 50mph or so.

[Phil]

Holy crap it’s really wild out there. Gusting over 50mph very frequently.

[Phil]

Apparently Camp David hit 74mph.

[Phil]

Heard multiple trees go down in the woods. One fell on a house, another on power lines on Heatherhill Rd.

Gusts were easily 55+mph. My tree-obstructed anemometer registered a 51mph gust, which usually means winds are much stronger at the treetops. Strongest of the year so far.