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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


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I think it's time to start a thread for this system as all the models are now showing a strong storm to traverse the Upper MW/N GL's during the Thu-Sat period ushering in a fresh round of snowfall along with colder temps.  It appears this system will be multi faceted bring lots of wind, snow and heavy LES downwind of the GL's.  I like the fact that some of the models show it sorta occluding allowing for some wrap around snows on the backside of the system for those farther S of the track who miss out on the heavier snows N/NW of the track.  I'm sure there will be run to run variations with this system.  I'm also seeing more blocking upstream which the ensembles are picking up on as we get closer in time.  Should be an interesting system to track.  I'm sure @FAR_Weather and those in the Upper MW are stoked to see this one coming!

 

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00z EPS...

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00z GEFS...

150

 

00z UKIE...

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

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Just got in from busting drifts in the country. This is the kind of site I really don't care what I look like, let her buck!! Gotta like the 91' Twins coat!!!wind driven snow removed one of my contact

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I'm not sure I got to the 6.5 they said the airport had, but with it compacting it's possible. Was pretty nonetheless

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Yeah, we'll see. Euro is a good model to have on my side, but right now it is an outlier with how far south it is. Also, ensembles indicate that the operational is too juiced. 

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

12z GFS isn't running.  Not even on the NOAA site. 

The run is just starting on the COD site.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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8 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I've got a "warm" lake working in my favor.  So while it won't be extreme cold, a colder setup and moisture will do me well.  

Thats my hope up here as well....even marginal cold with the lakes sitting at +3-4c should make it work 

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GFS is still in Manitoba with the energy.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Euro and others shifting SE. ST Paul Storm looks good.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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55 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Probably because, as usual, there is no REAL cold air coming.  

Sigh. I guess at least it is something. From GRR:

The other trend for the consensus of models and ensembles, is that a
closed sfc low does not develop to our SE and bring a band of snow
to the area. Instead, we end up under the upper low complex as it
evolves, likely leading to periods of light snow showers Thursday
night and into Friday. The air is not all that cold (-8C at 850 mb),
so lake instability is not that impressive. Also, the flow pattern
in the lower levels is kind of disorganized.

-- Colder and unsettled for the weekend and early next week --

Right now, we are not looking for significant accumulations of snow
once the colder air settles in. We will see on and off snow showers
however that will slowly increase snow depth over the favored lake
effect areas this weekend and early next week. The general flow
pattern aloft will be cyclonic in nature, and from the NW. We will
see multiple short waves move through, which will see lake effect
snow showers flare up ahead of them, and diminish behind them. The
biggest factor looks to be that we do not stay under cyclonic
flow/cold pool aloft persistently. This will allow for breaks in the
snow showers, and keep snow from adding up too quick.
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18z GFS a little more robust with the precip associated with the front, but is still pretty weak with the wrap around snow showers.  This will be interesting to see play out.  

Season Snowfall: 20.5"

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1 hour ago, whatitdo said:

Sigh. I guess at least it is something. From GRR:


The other trend for the consensus of models and ensembles, is that a
closed sfc low does not develop to our SE and bring a band of snow
to the area. Instead, we end up under the upper low complex as it
evolves, likely leading to periods of light snow showers Thursday
night and into Friday. The air is not all that cold (-8C at 850 mb),
so lake instability is not that impressive. Also, the flow pattern
in the lower levels is kind of disorganized.

-- Colder and unsettled for the weekend and early next week --

Right now, we are not looking for significant accumulations of snow
once the colder air settles in. We will see on and off snow showers
however that will slowly increase snow depth over the favored lake
effect areas this weekend and early next week. The general flow
pattern aloft will be cyclonic in nature, and from the NW. We will
see multiple short waves move through, which will see lake effect
snow showers flare up ahead of them, and diminish behind them. The
biggest factor looks to be that we do not stay under cyclonic
flow/cold pool aloft persistently. This will allow for breaks in the
snow showers, and keep snow from adding up too quick.

Yes.  Something better than what we have now.  But nothing to excited about.  It seems this winter is moving fast towards spring.    This forcaster was promoting cold and snowy the last few days and now almost sounds dejected realizing that the mid-long range is once again proving to be fantasy. 

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I may not sit in the jackpot- but do like my spot come defo band- I'll take 1-3" wind blown any day in this winter-  esp mention of snow squall warning.

Turning to Friday, main concerns will be accumulating snowfall,
strong winds, and snow shower potential as the upper and surface
lows track across/near the MN/IA/WI tri-state area. Uptick in
overall snowfall across northern Iowa has continued within the
models/ensembles, pushing ~4 inch snowfall amounts into portions
of northern Iowa. While sub-warning criteria, toss in persistent
strong winds and the conditions will be unpleasant to say the
least, likely warranting at least an advisory somewhere across
northern area. Elsewhere, steep low level lapse rates suggest the
potential for convective snow showers (dare we say snow squall
like) across at least portions of the CWA from early Friday and
through much of the day. Total snowfall amounts would remain
light, but brief intense rates would likely cause travel issues,
especially along highways and interstates. Depending on how
exactly it plays out, an advisory or snow squall warning could be
warranted. Regardless, unpleasant, though thankfully not
incredibly cold.

All of this said, expect at least subtle changes to continue as
model suites continue to come into better agreement on track/timing
and other features, but be prepared for some unpleasant conditions
beginning Thursday and on through Friday.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 hours ago, whatitdo said:

lmao we getting shafted again somehow huh @jaster220

Yup. As expected, stuck in Scrapville USA. This winter's winners and losers were determined already with prior cycles. Hits E,N,S,W and now another flavor of the Christmas week storm. More "scraps on maps" for my county with little expectations that later trends will change that.

Oh, and not to forget the usual "fake out" weenie run by the Euro yesterday. GEM has also been hitting the Canibus too often. 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Yes.  Something better than what we have now.  But nothing to excited about.  It seems this winter is moving fast towards spring.    This forcaster was promoting cold and snowy the last few days and now almost sounds dejected realizing that the mid-long range is once again proving to be fantasy. 

Lol i noticed his optimism last week too. Reality bites! 

21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Yup. As expected, stuck in Scrapville USA. This winter's winners and losers were determined already with prior cycles. Hits E,N,S,W and now another flavor of the Christmas week storm. More "scraps on maps" for my county with little expectations that later trends will change that.

Oh, and not to forget the usual "fake out" weenie run by the Euro yesterday. GEM has also been hitting the Canibus too often. 

Loll just punt it away. Had a dream there was a significant winter storm but then I woke up. Hate sounding like a drag but it is what it is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

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All the models show some good energy rounding the base of the trough as it moves through, which produces snow on the front end before the storm spins up and pulls down the backwash snow.

00z UK

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 23.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro further S in IA with backwash---- nice trend.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Would not be surprised if  FSD or even DMX or MSP mentions the potential of the "B" word for NW IA, SW MN and vicinity with these kinds of winds- and these are likely underdone. Couldn't get the entire screen to fit, but these are in KT. This may also give DLH a rare lake effect event but the delta "T" s are not that impressive.image.thumb.png.d0567c49fcc243f01859c3672fdd4f44.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It does seem to be adding moisture well S ( Gitchiegumme_) , maybe as far as MSP. Seems several years ago I remember a system similar to this that wrapped moisture from Superior well S and W. prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nc.pngsfct.us_nc.png

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Jesus H. Christ. Why is the Red River the exact cutoff point for every single storm this season?

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.7"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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NAM continues its front end thump snow. Fun to look at but not happening. Maybe in Minny, but not here in IA.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z EPS below...this is turning into quite the system and as @Grizzcoat mentioned, this could very well turn into a tightly packed Blizzard for those directly W/NW of the SLP's track.  I'm seeing stronger upstream blocking which is leading to a slower, longer duration system that spins over the GL's.  There are several interesting features that the models are picking up on which is a rotating piece of energy that swings through the region that provides another round of lift thus increasing totals somewhat on the southern edge of the track.  

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00z GEFS ensemble members seeing this secondary piece and increasing snowfall totals throughout the GL's region...I may have to extend the storm dates due to the longevity of this system.  Interestingly, this storm correlates to the monster Bearing Sea storm that spun for days in that region in late Dec around Christmas I believe it was.

168

 

 

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DMX's thoughts with am AFD (sounds like they wanna throw out GFS, but never really do so)-

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Monday/
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

Confidence:  Medium

There remain some considerable differences between the GFS/Euro
deterministic models with regard to the development and evolution of
our late week system with the GFS most likely still too far north
initially with most of the upper level support, due to model
bias. This difference eventually is ironed out with the H500 low
consolidating over Iowa/Wis/MN region by 18z Friday. Overall, the
initial surge of colder air and cold front arriving late Wednesday
into Thursday morning will provide the first opportunity for any
precipitation. The GFS is slightly faster with the onset and
timing differences of 3 to 4 hours will mean the difference
between a chance for early morning light rain vs light freezing
rain Thursday. So far model soundings are not very supportive of
much of any freezing rain, but the onset timing may result in a
brief mixture. Overall, the risk of any impacts initially look to
be small even if light fzra occurs as temperatures warm quickly
in the morning to change to light rain before a light rain/snow
mix takes over as colder air moves in aloft through the remainder
of the day. Highs Thursday will recover at best into the mid to
upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. Both the GFS and Euro hint
at a period of lesser precip chances from late morning Thursday
through afternoon as the first surge of colder air move into the
region. Though at the same time winds will be on the increase from
the northwest and likely already be gusting to 25 to 35 mph at
times. As the upper level low drops south Thursday night into
Friday, snow will increase across the area and continue on Friday.
A combination of snow showers, stronger northwest winds and
continued cold air advection will make for a rather inclement day.
The differences in the models are resulting in a low confidence
snowfall forecast for now, but indications from the GEFs and
deterministic GFS suggest as little as 1 to 3 inches during the 2
day period while the Euro/Euro ensembles suggests up to 2 to 4
inches possible with the higher totals north of US 20. With steep
lapse rates Friday especially, and potential wind gusts over 35
mph, some travel difficulties may arise later in the day through
Friday night. By nightfall, a transition from more upright snow
showers to shear driven snow showers should occur based on present
soundings and this would keep snow going into early Saturday.
Certainly this period will need further scrutiny with the current
Euro solution more impactful for our forecast area compared to the
GFS with regard to precipitation/wind impacts. Cold air forecast
in both models will drag highs back into the 20s Friday and
Saturday with lows in the teens Friday night. Though the coldest
air will pass over the region Friday into Friday night with a
minor moderation on Saturday, additional energy in the northwest
flow aloft will result in another push of cold air into the late
weekend and early next week. There remains a loose consensus as to
how this will transpire into Monday with one or two weak waves
accompanied by possible light snow, plenty of clouds and minor
snow accumulations possible. Highs Sunday into Monday will remain
mainly in the 20s to around 30 with lows in the teens.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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OMA blows it off-

Wednesday night through Friday

Attention turns anticipated rain/mix event during the period. Models
are in rather good agreement a Pacific NW shortwave will drop
through the northern Rockies Wednesday morning before reaching
the western Dakotas Wednesday night. Stout 500mb height falls of
roughly 20dam will precede the system. Increasing DPVA will
induce synoptic scale lift and aid with inducing snow over the
western Dakotas in the vicinity of attendant cold front. At this
point given the track of 500mn HFC/best dendritic omega, mail area
of snowfall will be across the eastern Dakotas/Mn. Nevertheless
cannot totally discount some light snow accumulations over
portions of the northern CWA generally northeast of a line from
about Niobrara to Woodbine IA. Abouts will be on the light side
with less than an inch in general. Meanwhile over the rest of the
CWA small rain chances per soundings are the best fit.

Small snow chances continue thursday night/Friday along the
northeast NE/SD/IA border in part to a stout vort max riding down
the backside of the exiting upper low. Again no significant
accumulations expected

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MPX's thoughts-

Meanwhile by Thursday afternoon, the aforementioned amplifying upper-
level trough will take on a more negative tilt shifting over the
Central Plains. In turn, this would place strong upper-level
diffluence and differential positive vorticity advection over the
Upper Midwest. From synoptic meteorology, it can be reasoned that
surface cyclogenesis would occur within this region. Indeed, the 00z
ECMWF and a large portion of the EPS members produce a low within
the post-frontal cold air over MN/WI by Thursday evening. Guidance
also shows a large area of snow enveloping the Upper Midwest from
the deepening low. The low then stalls through Friday as the upper-
level trough becomes cutoff. While snowfall rates wouldn't be too
heavy in this solution, the long duration means there is potential
for at least a couple inches of snow in MN and west-central WI. In
fact using WPC QPF, snowfall amounts upwards of 5 inches are shown
in western MN by Friday morning. Have boosted PoPs using a blend of
NBM, CONSAll, and the ECMWF Thursday and Friday. Also, forecast
surface winds will be rather breezy (especially across western MN)
as a strong pressure gradient would exist. This would likely create
blowing snow and reduced visibility. It must noted that the GFS and
NAM are not as optimistic about the secondary low development and
consequential snowfall. However, they do make attempts at both and
show accumulating snowfall within MN and WI. Forecast synoptic
trends and snowfall amounts will need to be monitored to determine
how significant this system could be. Headlines for winter weather
may be necessary as this event draws closer.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I hope the Euro jostles a little further east with the wrap around snows.  It would be fun to see  near blizzard conditions for the first time in years over here. 

Season Snowfall: 20.5"

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7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Jesus H. Christ. Why is the Red River the exact cutoff point for every single storm this season?

Cuz the rich get richer in this LRC pattern, that's why.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 9.6"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 4.5 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Jesus H. Christ. Why is the Red River the exact cutoff point for every single storm this season?

There is quite a gradient of decreasing average annual snowfall from east to west across MN extending into ND.  This trend shows up as a hard cut off point for weak to moderate snowfalls somewhere between Detroit Lakes MN and about Jamestown ND.  Fargo is often in near this hard cutoff zone.  It takes a strong storm to overcome this climo and there have no strong snowstorms so far this winter.  

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17 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

There is quite a gradient of decreasing average annual snowfall from east to west across MN extending into ND.  This trend shows up as a hard cut off point for weak to moderate snowfalls somewhere between Detroit Lakes MN and about Jamestown ND.  Fargo is often in near this hard cutoff zone.  It takes a strong storm to overcome this climo and there have no strong snowstorms so far this winter.  

Being born and raised in MN- I agree with this. Also- Fargo also has avg snowfall quite a bit lower than MPLS-- NOTusing the 30 year avg's but avg's since records were taken- MPX is 43.3- Fargo is 40.3. Fargo does have a few mighty ones at 117 (96-97') but also has a lot of duds compared to MPLS. The 117 in 96-97' skews the 30 year avg which is 49 compared to 45+ in MPLS. If I had to pick Fargo or MPLS to live for snow- I'd take MPLS every day, maybe not that big FALL or SPRING event, but who cares, it's going to melt soon anyway.

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8 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Still snowing well after the end of this run too.....snowing all the way back the eastern Dakotas.  

Like the Canadian model!! But their World Junior team got schooled by the USA!! btw- that coach for USA (Nate Leaman) needs an NHL job. Great Coach!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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