Tom Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 I think it's time to start a thread for this system as all the models are now showing a strong storm to traverse the Upper MW/N GL's during the Thu-Sat period ushering in a fresh round of snowfall along with colder temps. It appears this system will be multi faceted bring lots of wind, snow and heavy LES downwind of the GL's. I like the fact that some of the models show it sorta occluding allowing for some wrap around snows on the backside of the system for those farther S of the track who miss out on the heavier snows N/NW of the track. I'm sure there will be run to run variations with this system. I'm also seeing more blocking upstream which the ensembles are picking up on as we get closer in time. Should be an interesting system to track. I'm sure @FAR_Weather and those in the Upper MW are stoked to see this one coming! 00z EPS... 00z GEFS... 00z UKIE... 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 06Z EURO has defo band much further S than 00Z had it at 90 and 96 hours respectively. - and E also in ND. 00Z Euro at HR 96- 06Z Euro at HR 90- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Not much to look at on 6z GFS. Some backside snow showers. Wind is a sure bet with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 6z Euro Control 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Yeah, we'll see. Euro is a good model to have on my side, but right now it is an outlier with how far south it is. Also, ensembles indicate that the operational is too juiced. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 12z GFS isn't running. Not even on the NOAA site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 12z GFS isn't running. Not even on the NOAA site. The run is just starting on the COD site. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 12z GGEM... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 I've got a "warm" lake working in my favor. So while it won't be extreme cold, a colder setup and moisture will do me well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I've got a "warm" lake working in my favor. So while it won't be extreme cold, a colder setup and moisture will do me well. Thats my hope up here as well....even marginal cold with the lakes sitting at +3-4c should make it work 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 UKie more S and more robust with moisture. 1 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 GFS is still in Manitoba with the energy. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 Euro and others shifting SE. ST Paul Storm looks good. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 12z Euro... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: 12z Euro... lmao we getting shafted again somehow huh @jaster220 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, whatitdo said: lmao we getting shafted again somehow huh @jaster220 Probably because, as usual, there is no REAL cold air coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 55 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Probably because, as usual, there is no REAL cold air coming. Sigh. I guess at least it is something. From GRR: The other trend for the consensus of models and ensembles, is that a closed sfc low does not develop to our SE and bring a band of snow to the area. Instead, we end up under the upper low complex as it evolves, likely leading to periods of light snow showers Thursday night and into Friday. The air is not all that cold (-8C at 850 mb), so lake instability is not that impressive. Also, the flow pattern in the lower levels is kind of disorganized. -- Colder and unsettled for the weekend and early next week -- Right now, we are not looking for significant accumulations of snow once the colder air settles in. We will see on and off snow showers however that will slowly increase snow depth over the favored lake effect areas this weekend and early next week. The general flow pattern aloft will be cyclonic in nature, and from the NW. We will see multiple short waves move through, which will see lake effect snow showers flare up ahead of them, and diminish behind them. The biggest factor looks to be that we do not stay under cyclonic flow/cold pool aloft persistently. This will allow for breaks in the snow showers, and keep snow from adding up too quick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 12z EPS...looks like a solid hit coming for those of you up north.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 18z GFS a little more robust with the precip associated with the front, but is still pretty weak with the wrap around snow showers. This will be interesting to see play out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, whatitdo said: Sigh. I guess at least it is something. From GRR: The other trend for the consensus of models and ensembles, is that a closed sfc low does not develop to our SE and bring a band of snow to the area. Instead, we end up under the upper low complex as it evolves, likely leading to periods of light snow showers Thursday night and into Friday. The air is not all that cold (-8C at 850 mb), so lake instability is not that impressive. Also, the flow pattern in the lower levels is kind of disorganized. -- Colder and unsettled for the weekend and early next week -- Right now, we are not looking for significant accumulations of snow once the colder air settles in. We will see on and off snow showers however that will slowly increase snow depth over the favored lake effect areas this weekend and early next week. The general flow pattern aloft will be cyclonic in nature, and from the NW. We will see multiple short waves move through, which will see lake effect snow showers flare up ahead of them, and diminish behind them. The biggest factor looks to be that we do not stay under cyclonic flow/cold pool aloft persistently. This will allow for breaks in the snow showers, and keep snow from adding up too quick. Yes. Something better than what we have now. But nothing to excited about. It seems this winter is moving fast towards spring. This forcaster was promoting cold and snowy the last few days and now almost sounds dejected realizing that the mid-long range is once again proving to be fantasy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 I may not sit in the jackpot- but do like my spot come defo band- I'll take 1-3" wind blown any day in this winter- esp mention of snow squall warning. Turning to Friday, main concerns will be accumulating snowfall, strong winds, and snow shower potential as the upper and surface lows track across/near the MN/IA/WI tri-state area. Uptick in overall snowfall across northern Iowa has continued within the models/ensembles, pushing ~4 inch snowfall amounts into portions of northern Iowa. While sub-warning criteria, toss in persistent strong winds and the conditions will be unpleasant to say the least, likely warranting at least an advisory somewhere across northern area. Elsewhere, steep low level lapse rates suggest the potential for convective snow showers (dare we say snow squall like) across at least portions of the CWA from early Friday and through much of the day. Total snowfall amounts would remain light, but brief intense rates would likely cause travel issues, especially along highways and interstates. Depending on how exactly it plays out, an advisory or snow squall warning could be warranted. Regardless, unpleasant, though thankfully not incredibly cold. All of this said, expect at least subtle changes to continue as model suites continue to come into better agreement on track/timing and other features, but be prepared for some unpleasant conditions beginning Thursday and on through Friday. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 hours ago, whatitdo said: lmao we getting shafted again somehow huh @jaster220 Yup. As expected, stuck in Scrapville USA. This winter's winners and losers were determined already with prior cycles. Hits E,N,S,W and now another flavor of the Christmas week storm. More "scraps on maps" for my county with little expectations that later trends will change that. Oh, and not to forget the usual "fake out" weenie run by the Euro yesterday. GEM has also been hitting the Canibus too often. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 11, 2021 Report Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: Yes. Something better than what we have now. But nothing to excited about. It seems this winter is moving fast towards spring. This forcaster was promoting cold and snowy the last few days and now almost sounds dejected realizing that the mid-long range is once again proving to be fantasy. Lol i noticed his optimism last week too. Reality bites! 21 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Yup. As expected, stuck in Scrapville USA. This winter's winners and losers were determined already with prior cycles. Hits E,N,S,W and now another flavor of the Christmas week storm. More "scraps on maps" for my county with little expectations that later trends will change that. Oh, and not to forget the usual "fake out" weenie run by the Euro yesterday. GEM has also been hitting the Canibus too often. Loll just punt it away. Had a dream there was a significant winter storm but then I woke up. Hate sounding like a drag but it is what it is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: 12z EPS...looks like a solid hit coming for those of you up north.. just on the edge of 6+. Its a start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 All the models show some good energy rounding the base of the trough as it moves through, which produces snow on the front end before the storm spins up and pulls down the backwash snow. 00z UK 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Euro further S in IA with backwash---- nice trend. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Minnesota special Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Would not be surprised if FSD or even DMX or MSP mentions the potential of the "B" word for NW IA, SW MN and vicinity with these kinds of winds- and these are likely underdone. Couldn't get the entire screen to fit, but these are in KT. This may also give DLH a rare lake effect event but the delta "T" s are not that impressive. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 It does seem to be adding moisture well S ( Gitchiegumme_) , maybe as far as MSP. Seems several years ago I remember a system similar to this that wrapped moisture from Superior well S and W. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Jesus H. Christ. Why is the Red River the exact cutoff point for every single storm this season? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 NAM continues its front end thump snow. Fun to look at but not happening. Maybe in Minny, but not here in IA. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 00z EPS below...this is turning into quite the system and as @Grizzcoat mentioned, this could very well turn into a tightly packed Blizzard for those directly W/NW of the SLP's track. I'm seeing stronger upstream blocking which is leading to a slower, longer duration system that spins over the GL's. There are several interesting features that the models are picking up on which is a rotating piece of energy that swings through the region that provides another round of lift thus increasing totals somewhat on the southern edge of the track. 00z GEFS ensemble members seeing this secondary piece and increasing snowfall totals throughout the GL's region...I may have to extend the storm dates due to the longevity of this system. Interestingly, this storm correlates to the monster Bearing Sea storm that spun for days in that region in late Dec around Christmas I believe it was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 00z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 DMX's thoughts with am AFD (sounds like they wanna throw out GFS, but never really do so)- .LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Monday/ Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021 Confidence: Medium There remain some considerable differences between the GFS/Euro deterministic models with regard to the development and evolution of our late week system with the GFS most likely still too far north initially with most of the upper level support, due to model bias. This difference eventually is ironed out with the H500 low consolidating over Iowa/Wis/MN region by 18z Friday. Overall, the initial surge of colder air and cold front arriving late Wednesday into Thursday morning will provide the first opportunity for any precipitation. The GFS is slightly faster with the onset and timing differences of 3 to 4 hours will mean the difference between a chance for early morning light rain vs light freezing rain Thursday. So far model soundings are not very supportive of much of any freezing rain, but the onset timing may result in a brief mixture. Overall, the risk of any impacts initially look to be small even if light fzra occurs as temperatures warm quickly in the morning to change to light rain before a light rain/snow mix takes over as colder air moves in aloft through the remainder of the day. Highs Thursday will recover at best into the mid to upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. Both the GFS and Euro hint at a period of lesser precip chances from late morning Thursday through afternoon as the first surge of colder air move into the region. Though at the same time winds will be on the increase from the northwest and likely already be gusting to 25 to 35 mph at times. As the upper level low drops south Thursday night into Friday, snow will increase across the area and continue on Friday. A combination of snow showers, stronger northwest winds and continued cold air advection will make for a rather inclement day. The differences in the models are resulting in a low confidence snowfall forecast for now, but indications from the GEFs and deterministic GFS suggest as little as 1 to 3 inches during the 2 day period while the Euro/Euro ensembles suggests up to 2 to 4 inches possible with the higher totals north of US 20. With steep lapse rates Friday especially, and potential wind gusts over 35 mph, some travel difficulties may arise later in the day through Friday night. By nightfall, a transition from more upright snow showers to shear driven snow showers should occur based on present soundings and this would keep snow going into early Saturday. Certainly this period will need further scrutiny with the current Euro solution more impactful for our forecast area compared to the GFS with regard to precipitation/wind impacts. Cold air forecast in both models will drag highs back into the 20s Friday and Saturday with lows in the teens Friday night. Though the coldest air will pass over the region Friday into Friday night with a minor moderation on Saturday, additional energy in the northwest flow aloft will result in another push of cold air into the late weekend and early next week. There remains a loose consensus as to how this will transpire into Monday with one or two weak waves accompanied by possible light snow, plenty of clouds and minor snow accumulations possible. Highs Sunday into Monday will remain mainly in the 20s to around 30 with lows in the teens. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 OMA blows it off- Wednesday night through Friday Attention turns anticipated rain/mix event during the period. Models are in rather good agreement a Pacific NW shortwave will drop through the northern Rockies Wednesday morning before reaching the western Dakotas Wednesday night. Stout 500mb height falls of roughly 20dam will precede the system. Increasing DPVA will induce synoptic scale lift and aid with inducing snow over the western Dakotas in the vicinity of attendant cold front. At this point given the track of 500mn HFC/best dendritic omega, mail area of snowfall will be across the eastern Dakotas/Mn. Nevertheless cannot totally discount some light snow accumulations over portions of the northern CWA generally northeast of a line from about Niobrara to Woodbine IA. Abouts will be on the light side with less than an inch in general. Meanwhile over the rest of the CWA small rain chances per soundings are the best fit. Small snow chances continue thursday night/Friday along the northeast NE/SD/IA border in part to a stout vort max riding down the backside of the exiting upper low. Again no significant accumulations expected Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 06Z GFS has accumulating snow well into MO. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 Euro control Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 MPX's thoughts- Meanwhile by Thursday afternoon, the aforementioned amplifying upper- level trough will take on a more negative tilt shifting over the Central Plains. In turn, this would place strong upper-level diffluence and differential positive vorticity advection over the Upper Midwest. From synoptic meteorology, it can be reasoned that surface cyclogenesis would occur within this region. Indeed, the 00z ECMWF and a large portion of the EPS members produce a low within the post-frontal cold air over MN/WI by Thursday evening. Guidance also shows a large area of snow enveloping the Upper Midwest from the deepening low. The low then stalls through Friday as the upper- level trough becomes cutoff. While snowfall rates wouldn't be too heavy in this solution, the long duration means there is potential for at least a couple inches of snow in MN and west-central WI. In fact using WPC QPF, snowfall amounts upwards of 5 inches are shown in western MN by Friday morning. Have boosted PoPs using a blend of NBM, CONSAll, and the ECMWF Thursday and Friday. Also, forecast surface winds will be rather breezy (especially across western MN) as a strong pressure gradient would exist. This would likely create blowing snow and reduced visibility. It must noted that the GFS and NAM are not as optimistic about the secondary low development and consequential snowfall. However, they do make attempts at both and show accumulating snowfall within MN and WI. Forecast synoptic trends and snowfall amounts will need to be monitored to determine how significant this system could be. Headlines for winter weather may be necessary as this event draws closer. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 12, 2021 Report Share Posted January 12, 2021 06Z Euro- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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