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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


Tom

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7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Jesus H. Christ. Why is the Red River the exact cutoff point for every single storm this season?

Cuz the rich get richer in this LRC pattern, that's why.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Jesus H. Christ. Why is the Red River the exact cutoff point for every single storm this season?

There is quite a gradient of decreasing average annual snowfall from east to west across MN extending into ND.  This trend shows up as a hard cut off point for weak to moderate snowfalls somewhere between Detroit Lakes MN and about Jamestown ND.  Fargo is often in near this hard cutoff zone.  It takes a strong storm to overcome this climo and there have no strong snowstorms so far this winter.  

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17 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

There is quite a gradient of decreasing average annual snowfall from east to west across MN extending into ND.  This trend shows up as a hard cut off point for weak to moderate snowfalls somewhere between Detroit Lakes MN and about Jamestown ND.  Fargo is often in near this hard cutoff zone.  It takes a strong storm to overcome this climo and there have no strong snowstorms so far this winter.  

Being born and raised in MN- I agree with this. Also- Fargo also has avg snowfall quite a bit lower than MPLS-- NOTusing the 30 year avg's but avg's since records were taken- MPX is 43.3- Fargo is 40.3. Fargo does have a few mighty ones at 117 (96-97') but also has a lot of duds compared to MPLS. The 117 in 96-97' skews the 30 year avg which is 49 compared to 45+ in MPLS. If I had to pick Fargo or MPLS to live for snow- I'd take MPLS every day, maybe not that big FALL or SPRING event, but who cares, it's going to melt soon anyway.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Still snowing well after the end of this run too.....snowing all the way back the eastern Dakotas.  

Like the Canadian model!! But their World Junior team got schooled by the USA!! btw- that coach for USA (Nate Leaman) needs an NHL job. Great Coach!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Being born and raised in MN- I agree with this. Also- Fargo also has avg snowfall quite a bit lower than MPLS-- NOTusing the 30 year avg's but avg's since records were taken- MPX is 43.3- Fargo is 40.3. Fargo does have a few mighty ones at 117 (96-97') but also has a lot of duds compared to MPLS. The 117 in 96-97' skews the 30 year avg which is 49 compared to 45+ in MPLS. If I had to pick Fargo or MPLS to live for snow- I'd take MPLS every day, maybe not that big FALL or SPRING event, but who cares, it's going to melt soon anyway.

Getting off topic for this thread, but just have to add about 96-97 winter.  I can't think of a superlative strong enough to describe the huge snowfall that year for the Red River valley.  Looking back at the numbers, its hard to believe that winter could even be real.  

I grew up in central mn but have relatives in Kittson county in extreme NW Minnesota and got regular updates that year along with visiting them over Christmas break 1996 I saw some of it myself.  They had 2 feet of snow on the ground from end of November until April.  Was there memorial day weekend for cousins graduation and there was still a snowdrift in one of the fields. 

On the downside they had a massive ice storm in march that snapped hundreds of miles power lines like twigs followed by unprecedented flooding in spring when all that snow melted.  Between snowstorms/blizzards, ice storm, and flooding my cousins had no 5 day school weeks after New Years.  In spring they were taking the high school students out of school to help sand bag for flood control.   

 

Back to the current event.  I am not expecting to much for northern minnesota except for the extreeme arrowhead.   whatever models put out 4-5 days in advance we are just in a pattern that leads to storms falling flat around here.  It will change sometime....probably in April. 

 

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Beltrami Island-

That winter of 96-97 I worked at a Gander Mtn store in Fridley,MN. All I did is fish fish fish and more fish. Ice fishing that year I caught this on the Rainy River right at Indus Rapids- (usually doesn't freeze over , but -50F (( -60F in Tower)) will do that.  31.5" 11.5 lbs. My buddies caught several others near this size. If you got the guts- fish Indus Rapids in the  late Winter- but be prepared with ice picks and PFD's as the ice even a cold year is razor thin.

https://photos.bwca.com/w/WHITEWOLF-120716-221259.JPG

I also fished that Spring for the SD/MN opener on Big Stone lake. There are still ponds/small lakes in the area that weren't their previous to the winter of 96-97'. Also- I remember an old lady that lived rural near Crookston that needed to be dug out by a front end loader. Winds and snow had literally drifted her house "over'. I tried searching it years back but got nothing. But it's the truth.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Beltrami Island-

That winter of 96-97 I worked at a Gander Mtn store in Fridely,MN. All I did is fish fish fish and more fish. Ice fishing that year I caught this on the Rainy River right at Indus Rapids- (usually doesn't freeze over , but -50F (( -60F in Tower)) will do that.  31.5" 11.5 lbs.

https://photos.bwca.com/w/WHITEWOLF-120716-221259.JPG

I also fished that Spring for the SD/MN opener on Big Stone lake. There are still ponds/small lakes in the area that weren't their previous to the winter of 96-97'. Also- I remember an old lady that lived rural near Crookston that needed to be dug out by a front end loader. Winds and snow had literally drifted her house "over'. I tried searching it years back but got nothing. But it's the truth.

Nice Fish!

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The air that wraps around this big low isn't particularly cold.  We only drop into the 20s.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

There is quite a gradient of decreasing average annual snowfall from east to west across MN extending into ND.  This trend shows up as a hard cut off point for weak to moderate snowfalls somewhere between Detroit Lakes MN and about Jamestown ND.  Fargo is often in near this hard cutoff zone.  It takes a strong storm to overcome this climo and there have no strong snowstorms so far this winter.  

Oh yeah, never denied that. This specific season, though, it has been exactly the Red River with zero variation for every single storm. Gets tiring after a while lol

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The Euro is nothing like the UK.  East-central IA gets crap on the Euro because the center of the upper low parks over us.  The UK is probably bogus.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Hell yeah. It might even retrograde. The cold air I'am seeing at upper levels means higher ratios on the backside. Maybe 15:1. The front end will be wet, if not rain. But this system nuts and bolts are on the backside with slowing ..... Not going to post- but look at the upper level cold air it draws in. Just enough for someone to get 6" imo.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Hell yeah. It might even retrograde. The cold air I'am seeing at upper levels means higher ratios on the backside. Maybe 15:1. The front end will be wet, if not rain. But this system nuts and bolts are on the backside with slowing ..... Not going to post- but look at the upper level cold air it draws in. Just enough for someone to get 6" imo.

Thoughts up this way Griz?

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GRR says this system is meh at best and also meh for future snowfall into next week other than lakeshore areas. 

 

-- Transition from rain to snow late Thursday into early Friday --

The models look like they have to come into a good consensus that
precipitation with the Thu/Fri system will start to develop over the
area later Thursday afternoon. This precipitation should start out
as mainly rain for most of the area as the lower levels will start
out above freezing up through 850 mb. This will not last long
however as evaporative cooling will occur, and turn any rain to snow
up north, with the south holding on to rain a little bit longer.

It does look like we will not see significant precipitation ahead of
this system, keeping snow accumulations in check. The limited
precipitation will be a result of limited Gulf moisture being drawn
into the system before the front moves east of the area. There could
be a couple of inches of snow across Central Lower, but it could be
much worse if better and deeper moisture was in place. All locations
will gradually see any rain change over to snow as the cooler air
moves in.

-- Cooler Friday through next week with occasional lake effect
chances --

There has been a decent amount of consistency in showing we will not
see significant amounts of precipitation, lake effect or synoptic,
after the front moves through. We will miss out on the deformation
snow on the NW side of this system. The air coming in in not all
that cold, only around -6 to -8C. This is not really sufficient
instability for lake effect. We will see a few snow showers, with
maybe some lake help, but nothing significant, especially by mid-
January standards. The snow showers will be more associated with the
filling upper low overhead.

Once the upper low gets kicked out, we will see the NW flow somewhat
similar to the current pattern gain control of the region. The
difference between the current pattern, and the one that will take
place on Sunday, is that colder air will be available. We will
continue to see short waves move through, but they will have more of
a potential to bring some lake effect snow showers along with light
synoptic amounts.

Overall, we continue to not expect a significant amount of snow in
any one location in a short period of time over the next week. We
will see the snow pack build up, especially near the lakeshore, as
we see a couple inches fall at times from Friday through next
Tuesday.
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DVN is not impressed at all.  "Less than an inch". 

 

Thursday night and Friday: Occluded closed upper low will dig
southeast into IA/IL. The associated cold pocket will be conducive
to snow showers and light snow but accumulations are expected to
be less than an inch, as moisture is somewhat limited due to lack
of Gulf moisture entrained into the system. With the stacked low
coming across eastern IA, the tighter pressure gradient should
remain to our west and northwest where the higher winds will be.
Due to the snow showers and possible stronger winds on Friday,
snow squalls may be an issue but the deciding factor will be low
level instability. Later shifts can monitor the situation. Highs
will be around 30.
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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK has shifted east quite a bit.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Lol. Even the bogus weenie run only gets me to 1"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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