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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


Tom

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Yep, the models are beginning to agree.  It now appears there won't be much on the front end, then the upper low spins over my area and the backwash snow mostly sags south over central/western Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some raw #'s--

Just W of DSM- mby-

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.60  LON =  -93.88

                                            00Z JAN13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 00Z 13-JAN   2.3     4.3    1017      81      44             563     550    
WED 06Z 13-JAN   1.1     6.1    1015      83      47             562     550    
WED 12Z 13-JAN  -0.1     7.4    1012      78      24    0.00     560     550    
WED 18Z 13-JAN   4.8     7.9    1008      64      43    0.00     556     549    
THU 00Z 14-JAN   1.3     9.4    1004      77      53    0.00     556     552    
THU 06Z 14-JAN   1.0     8.3    1001      79      54    0.00     552     551    
THU 12Z 14-JAN   1.8     2.5     999      78      90    0.00     545     545    
THU 18Z 14-JAN   2.7    -5.0    1002      84      97    0.13     531     530    
FRI 00Z 15-JAN   1.2    -5.9    1001      77      96    0.01     526     526    
FRI 06Z 15-JAN   0.0    -6.3     999      84      98    0.07     524     525    
FRI 12Z 15-JAN  -0.9    -6.7     997      89     100    0.13     523     526    
FRI 18Z 15-JAN   0.8    -6.2    1001      91      97    0.09     527     526    
SAT 00Z 16-JAN   0.2    -5.9    1007      92      79    0.09     533     528    
SAT 06Z 16-JAN  -0.7    -6.1    1010      90      98    0.04     538     530 

 

OMA- (not out of this by any stretch)

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981

                                            00Z JAN13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 00Z 13-JAN   3.9     5.6    1016      74      48             565     551    
WED 06Z 13-JAN   1.2     7.7    1015      72      28             564     552    
WED 12Z 13-JAN   0.5     8.0    1012      64      21    0.00     561     552    
WED 18Z 13-JAN   7.8    10.0    1008      43      37    0.00     559     552    
THU 00Z 14-JAN   4.8     9.5    1004      69      25    0.00     559     556    
THU 06Z 14-JAN   5.4     9.2     999      63      70    0.00     553     553    
THU 12Z 14-JAN   3.8    -2.2    1005      84     100    0.03     540     536    
THU 18Z 14-JAN   6.3    -4.3    1005      38      97    0.01     531     527    
FRI 00Z 15-JAN   2.3    -6.5    1005      58     100    0.03     529     524    
FRI 06Z 15-JAN   0.0    -8.1    1005      71      98    0.04     528     525    
FRI 12Z 15-JAN  -1.3    -8.9    1004      76      99    0.12     529     526    
FRI 18Z 15-JAN  -0.6    -8.0    1007      75      98    0.09     533     528    
SAT 00Z 16-JAN  -1.2    -7.9    1012      79      98    0.02     539     529    
SAT 06Z 16-JAN  -1.7    -7.5    1015      78      53    0.02     543     531

 

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MSP- (odd that 850's are actually colder further S and W)

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MSP    LAT=  44.88 LON=  -93.22 ELE=   837

                                            00Z JAN13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 00Z 13-JAN  -0.2     3.4    1012      85      40             556     546    
WED 06Z 13-JAN  -1.5     4.7    1011      89      36             554     545    
WED 12Z 13-JAN  -3.3     4.9    1009      89      44    0.00     552     545    
WED 18Z 13-JAN   2.2     4.2    1007      75      83    0.00     549     544    
THU 00Z 14-JAN   1.4     5.3    1003      83      89    0.00     549     547    
THU 06Z 14-JAN  -0.2     5.3    1000      89      51    0.00     546     546    
THU 12Z 14-JAN  -0.1     0.8     999      92      98    0.02     540     542    
THU 18Z 14-JAN   0.6    -3.7     997      95      97    0.17     535     537    
FRI 00Z 15-JAN  -0.2    -5.4     996      97      98    0.20     531     534    
FRI 06Z 15-JAN   0.4    -5.2     996      95      98    0.17     530     534    
FRI 12Z 15-JAN   0.7    -5.2     999      92      97    0.19     529     530    
FRI 18Z 15-JAN   1.2    -5.4    1003      90      88    0.05     533     530    
SAT 00Z 16-JAN   0.7    -5.8    1007      92      96    0.08     536     530    
SAT 06Z 16-JAN  -0.2    -6.5    1011      87      86    0.03     540     531 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Earlier I mentioned the winter of 96-97 and woman's house buried and had to be dug out. This pic and article are not that, but you get the idea. I had a buddy that was going to school in Moorehead and I-94 was literally shut down every 2-3 days for a month.  Think I'am over hyping it?

from the article-

"Blizzards struck western or west-central Minnesota Nov. 16-17, Dec. 17-19, Dec. 20-21, Dec. 23, Dec. 31, Jan. 15-16, Jan. 21-22, March 4, and even on April 5-6 during a huge flood fight to hold back the swelling Red River. Total seasonal snowfall in the Fargo-Moorhead area was 117 inches, which set up worst flooding ever, according to the DNR."

 

 

https://www.dl-online.com/news/4559868-think-bad-you-should-have-seen-winter-1996-97

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Eastern Iowa doesn't even get a lot of wind from this system now because the stacked low will be crawling directly over us.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro...snowfall through Mon as there is another upper level feature that some of the models are picking up on rotating through on Sun/Mon that fills in the gap from the initial strong ULL.  IF, this comes into fruition, then I'd say it would be a welcome sight for those who miss out on the main system.

1.png

 

00z EPS...virtically stacked ULL right over N IL is not good for the main show but then the second piece tracking over the area bodes well for those who miss out on the 1st round of snows.  It also appears to ignite the LES for SW MI peeps.  IA folks looking better as the system is trending farther S with the main snow shield.

2.png

 

3.png

 

 

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6Z -- 12KM and 3Km NAM push snow well into MO. here's the 3km through HR 60 --still snowing for many. ALso a good sign that NAM suite is finally picking up the wrap around. snku_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This system has got some mojo. When is the last time you saw a Severe Thunderstorm warning for Seattle area (North) in the middle of JAN?

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
WAC029-031-055-057-061-130915-
/O.NEW.KSEW.SV.W.0001.210113T0819Z-210113T0915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1219 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Snohomish County in west central Washington...
  Southeastern San Juan County in northwestern Washington...
  Northeastern Jefferson County in northwestern Washington...
  Northern Island County in northwestern Washington...
  Western Skagit County in northwestern Washington...

* Until 115 AM PST

* At 1217 AM PST, a line of showers producing strong winds was
  located near Oak Harbor, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Marysville, Mount Vernon, Oak Harbor, Arlington, Anacortes,
  Sedro-Woolley, Port Townsend, Burlington, Stanwood, Lake Mcmurray,
  Lake Ketchum, Lake Goodwin, Camano, La Conner, Stimson Crossing,
  Big Lake, Weallup Lake, Smokey Point, John Sam Lake and Warm Beach.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Serious winds coming ashore now in Strait of Juan de Fuca-

Data at: 0904 UTC 13 Jan 2021

CWQK 130800Z AUTO 27049G60KT 08/ RMK AO1 PRESRR PK WND 27063/0742 SLP972 T0078 53034


CWSP 130800Z AUTO 28046G53KT 08/05 RMK AO1 0PAST HR PRESRR 3034 PK WND 26064/0712 SLP972 P0004 T00820051 50014


CWLM 130800Z AUTO 26035G54KT 08/06 RMK AO1 8PAST HR PRESRR 3015 PK WND 27054/0758 SLP956 P0019 T00770062 50080


KNUW 130856Z 27042G56KT 6SM -RA SCT012 BKN028 OVC085 09/05 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 27056/0849 WSHFT 0806 SLP006 P0009 60013 T00890050 53057

Screenshot_2021-01-13 AWC - METeorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs).png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Still a wide range of differences within guidance. I'am riding the Euro hard like the last 2 events-- but here's your tax $$ at hard work. 06Z GFS- snku_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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OMA sounds like they are scrambling to catch up. for it's E CWA.  Yday they wrote it off.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
347 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Large scale pattern this morning consisting of a rather progressive
flow across the northern tier states with generous Pacific moisture
quickly streaming eastward in part to stout upper jet.

Tonight through Friday

Anticipated wintry weather remains on track over portions of the
region.

Pacific NW shortwave will drop through the northern Rockies this
morning before reaching the western Dakotas later tonight.
Impressive 500mb height falls of roughly 25-30dam will result in
strong deepening of the upper low show of as it dips into the
Dakotas. DPVA increase will induce synoptic scale lift and aid with
development of a mix of rain and snow over the western Dakotas this
afternoon. Precip activity is progged to increase in areal coverage
and expand southeastward and reach the northern CWA sometime toward
mid evening. Initial precip type will be rain as it reaches the
northern CWA. However, cold air advection late tonight should be
enough to support a rain/snow mix Thursday north of the I-80
corridor. Rain expected to be the dominate precip type then south of
I-80. Dynamic forcing associated with the upper low will mean precip
chances will continue Thursday night into Friday close to the
northeast NE/SD/IA borders. All this in part to strong vort max
energy riding down the backside of the exiting upper low. Given
track of 500mn HFC/dendritic omega, snow accumulations generally 1
to 3 inches will be found east of a line from Verdigre to about
Shenandoah IA.

Meanwhile a tight surface pressure gradient will induce northwest
wind gusts to generally range 35 to 45 mph. However portions of the
CWA could see gusts ranging from 50-60 mph. Because of this a High
Wind Watch will be in effect beginning late tonight through Thursday
evening for locations west of a line from Sioux City IA to Hebron.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX talking 6"+ in the North and "westward extent" of "robust"  snow. Hmmm.

National Weather Service Des Moines IA
343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Confidence: Medium

Complicated Storm to Affect the Region Thursday into Friday

Today will continue on with a quiet forecast and rather warm
temperatures. Though we continue warming aloft, cloud cover moving
in will temper highs a bit. We are already in the upper 20s to lower
30s and with a few more degrees lower by morning prior to warming
the remainder of the day, highs will recover to the upper 30s east
to the upper 40s southwest and south.

The main focus will be the system tracking southeast late tonight
into Friday, which will be the main challenge moving forward. A two
part wave is tracking toward the region with the first and southern-
most wave arriving into northwest Iowa by 08-10z Thursday. An area
of light rain/snow will develop and move over the region during the
morning and early afternoon hours with generally a mix of light rain
and snow with only minor accumulations through early afternoon.
Though colder air is moving in aloft, surface temperatures actually
warm up behind the boundary through the early afternoon. This will
allow highs to recover to the 30s to around 40. Winds will increase
during the day, especially northwest where gusts could approach 40
mph at times. During the afternoon, temperatures will begin to
fall northwest as the upper low begins to consolidate over
northeast Iowa. There is generally better consensus among the
models today as to the evolution of the system. The main concern
currently is the position of the low and eventual westward extent
of more robust snowfall from the system.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday/
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Confidence: Medium

Despite the system originating in the Pacific Northwest where
usually less moisture is expected with any passing wave, this low
will be deepening for about 12 hours prior to filling Friday and
also slowing down from late tomorrow afternoon through Friday
afternoon. As the H500 low and system becomes more stacked, periods
of light snow will continue to spin up around the system from
Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Overall, precipitation
amounts of 0.15 in the far south to up to 0.70 in the north are
anticipated for the entire event with about .25 to .50 qpf in the
form of snow from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. With
colder air aloft and snow ratios running about 13 to 14:1, we could
see amounts greater than 6 inches over portions of the north over
a 18 hour period. Though snowfall rates will not be a problem,
the persistent winds of 30 to nearly 40 mph will cause blowing
snow and reduced visibility in blowing snow across the north and
northwest, leading to some significant travel impacts. With some
uncertainty yet today, will most likely be looking at a possible
headline Thursday for the first round of precipitation and then a
more extended headline from the evening through a good share of
Friday. The area of worst impacts still needs to be nailed down.
Lows tomorrow night will fall into the 20s with highs Friday
recovering into the upper 20s to lower 30s. With the period of
greatest snowfall expected into Friday, the greatest travel
impacts will likely be the Friday morning and afternoon commutes
until the wind diminishes. The system is expected to fill by
Friday afternoon and along with that a gradual lessening of wind.
Lingering light snow will continue east into Friday evening with
quieter weather returning for Saturday.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Models really honing in on central MN.  And in general basically most of Minnesota getting hit pretty hard save for the NW 1/4 of the state and along the Canadian border.  Most models are spilling significant snows into central and western Iowa as well.  It seems I'll be just too far east and/or south for this one.  I'm still holding out hope for a wobble SE to get into the 2-4" band, but seems 1-2" is going to be more likely.  I'd just like to see some wrap around wind whipped snow squalls.  That would be fun.  

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