bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 RDPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 I'll take that 18z Euro. I wonder if this could be a situation like right before Christmas with not much snow but blizzard conditions. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 RDPS Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: RDPS Pretty massive shift west with the heaviest totals. Haven’t taken a look yet at why though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 GFS Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Regular Canadian is white gold for many. Simple best case scenario for W.Ia Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Models are trending towards the Euro. Not looking too good in eastern Iowa. I was hoping for a few inches but that seems unlikely. 1-2” seems like as good as I can hope for here based on current model trends. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Cmc Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Canadian with a big shift west. Looks a lot like the GFS which is coming into line with the euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 UK with a big shift west. Looks like most of the other models. Crazy how much agreement we have suddenly. Large areas of Minnesota looks really good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Yep, the models are beginning to agree. It now appears there won't be much on the front end, then the upper low spins over my area and the backwash snow mostly sags south over central/western Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Models agreeing and shifting south. Yes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Some raw #'s-- Just W of DSM- mby- ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 41.60 LON = -93.88 00Z JAN13 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 13-JAN 2.3 4.3 1017 81 44 563 550 WED 06Z 13-JAN 1.1 6.1 1015 83 47 562 550 WED 12Z 13-JAN -0.1 7.4 1012 78 24 0.00 560 550 WED 18Z 13-JAN 4.8 7.9 1008 64 43 0.00 556 549 THU 00Z 14-JAN 1.3 9.4 1004 77 53 0.00 556 552 THU 06Z 14-JAN 1.0 8.3 1001 79 54 0.00 552 551 THU 12Z 14-JAN 1.8 2.5 999 78 90 0.00 545 545 THU 18Z 14-JAN 2.7 -5.0 1002 84 97 0.13 531 530 FRI 00Z 15-JAN 1.2 -5.9 1001 77 96 0.01 526 526 FRI 06Z 15-JAN 0.0 -6.3 999 84 98 0.07 524 525 FRI 12Z 15-JAN -0.9 -6.7 997 89 100 0.13 523 526 FRI 18Z 15-JAN 0.8 -6.2 1001 91 97 0.09 527 526 SAT 00Z 16-JAN 0.2 -5.9 1007 92 79 0.09 533 528 SAT 06Z 16-JAN -0.7 -6.1 1010 90 98 0.04 538 530 OMA- (not out of this by any stretch) ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981 00Z JAN13 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 13-JAN 3.9 5.6 1016 74 48 565 551 WED 06Z 13-JAN 1.2 7.7 1015 72 28 564 552 WED 12Z 13-JAN 0.5 8.0 1012 64 21 0.00 561 552 WED 18Z 13-JAN 7.8 10.0 1008 43 37 0.00 559 552 THU 00Z 14-JAN 4.8 9.5 1004 69 25 0.00 559 556 THU 06Z 14-JAN 5.4 9.2 999 63 70 0.00 553 553 THU 12Z 14-JAN 3.8 -2.2 1005 84 100 0.03 540 536 THU 18Z 14-JAN 6.3 -4.3 1005 38 97 0.01 531 527 FRI 00Z 15-JAN 2.3 -6.5 1005 58 100 0.03 529 524 FRI 06Z 15-JAN 0.0 -8.1 1005 71 98 0.04 528 525 FRI 12Z 15-JAN -1.3 -8.9 1004 76 99 0.12 529 526 FRI 18Z 15-JAN -0.6 -8.0 1007 75 98 0.09 533 528 SAT 00Z 16-JAN -1.2 -7.9 1012 79 98 0.02 539 529 SAT 06Z 16-JAN -1.7 -7.5 1015 78 53 0.02 543 531 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 MSP- (odd that 850's are actually colder further S and W) ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MSP LAT= 44.88 LON= -93.22 ELE= 837 00Z JAN13 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 00Z 13-JAN -0.2 3.4 1012 85 40 556 546 WED 06Z 13-JAN -1.5 4.7 1011 89 36 554 545 WED 12Z 13-JAN -3.3 4.9 1009 89 44 0.00 552 545 WED 18Z 13-JAN 2.2 4.2 1007 75 83 0.00 549 544 THU 00Z 14-JAN 1.4 5.3 1003 83 89 0.00 549 547 THU 06Z 14-JAN -0.2 5.3 1000 89 51 0.00 546 546 THU 12Z 14-JAN -0.1 0.8 999 92 98 0.02 540 542 THU 18Z 14-JAN 0.6 -3.7 997 95 97 0.17 535 537 FRI 00Z 15-JAN -0.2 -5.4 996 97 98 0.20 531 534 FRI 06Z 15-JAN 0.4 -5.2 996 95 98 0.17 530 534 FRI 12Z 15-JAN 0.7 -5.2 999 92 97 0.19 529 530 FRI 18Z 15-JAN 1.2 -5.4 1003 90 88 0.05 533 530 SAT 00Z 16-JAN 0.7 -5.8 1007 92 96 0.08 536 530 SAT 06Z 16-JAN -0.2 -6.5 1011 87 86 0.03 540 531 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Earlier I mentioned the winter of 96-97 and woman's house buried and had to be dug out. This pic and article are not that, but you get the idea. I had a buddy that was going to school in Moorehead and I-94 was literally shut down every 2-3 days for a month. Think I'am over hyping it? from the article- "Blizzards struck western or west-central Minnesota Nov. 16-17, Dec. 17-19, Dec. 20-21, Dec. 23, Dec. 31, Jan. 15-16, Jan. 21-22, March 4, and even on April 5-6 during a huge flood fight to hold back the swelling Red River. Total seasonal snowfall in the Fargo-Moorhead area was 117 inches, which set up worst flooding ever, according to the DNR." https://www.dl-online.com/news/4559868-think-bad-you-should-have-seen-winter-1996-97 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Eastern Iowa doesn't even get a lot of wind from this system now because the stacked low will be crawling directly over us. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 00z Euro...snowfall through Mon as there is another upper level feature that some of the models are picking up on rotating through on Sun/Mon that fills in the gap from the initial strong ULL. IF, this comes into fruition, then I'd say it would be a welcome sight for those who miss out on the main system. 00z EPS...virtically stacked ULL right over N IL is not good for the main show but then the second piece tracking over the area bodes well for those who miss out on the 1st round of snows. It also appears to ignite the LES for SW MI peeps. IA folks looking better as the system is trending farther S with the main snow shield. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 00z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 6Z -- 12KM and 3Km NAM push snow well into MO. here's the 3km through HR 60 --still snowing for many. ALso a good sign that NAM suite is finally picking up the wrap around. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 This system has got some mojo. When is the last time you saw a Severe Thunderstorm warning for Seattle area (North) in the middle of JAN? Severe Thunderstorm Warning WAC029-031-055-057-061-130915- /O.NEW.KSEW.SV.W.0001.210113T0819Z-210113T0915Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Seattle WA 1219 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Snohomish County in west central Washington... Southeastern San Juan County in northwestern Washington... Northeastern Jefferson County in northwestern Washington... Northern Island County in northwestern Washington... Western Skagit County in northwestern Washington... * Until 115 AM PST * At 1217 AM PST, a line of showers producing strong winds was located near Oak Harbor, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Marysville, Mount Vernon, Oak Harbor, Arlington, Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Port Townsend, Burlington, Stanwood, Lake Mcmurray, Lake Ketchum, Lake Goodwin, Camano, La Conner, Stimson Crossing, Big Lake, Weallup Lake, Smokey Point, John Sam Lake and Warm Beach. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Serious winds coming ashore now in Strait of Juan de Fuca- Data at: 0904 UTC 13 Jan 2021 CWQK 130800Z AUTO 27049G60KT 08/ RMK AO1 PRESRR PK WND 27063/0742 SLP972 T0078 53034 CWSP 130800Z AUTO 28046G53KT 08/05 RMK AO1 0PAST HR PRESRR 3034 PK WND 26064/0712 SLP972 P0004 T00820051 50014 CWLM 130800Z AUTO 26035G54KT 08/06 RMK AO1 8PAST HR PRESRR 3015 PK WND 27054/0758 SLP956 P0019 T00770062 50080 KNUW 130856Z 27042G56KT 6SM -RA SCT012 BKN028 OVC085 09/05 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 27056/0849 WSHFT 0806 SLP006 P0009 60013 T00890050 53057 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 06Z RDPS- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Still a wide range of differences within guidance. I'am riding the Euro hard like the last 2 events-- but here's your tax $$ at hard work. 06Z GFS- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 OMA sounds like they are scrambling to catch up. for it's E CWA. Yday they wrote it off. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 347 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Large scale pattern this morning consisting of a rather progressive flow across the northern tier states with generous Pacific moisture quickly streaming eastward in part to stout upper jet. Tonight through Friday Anticipated wintry weather remains on track over portions of the region. Pacific NW shortwave will drop through the northern Rockies this morning before reaching the western Dakotas later tonight. Impressive 500mb height falls of roughly 25-30dam will result in strong deepening of the upper low show of as it dips into the Dakotas. DPVA increase will induce synoptic scale lift and aid with development of a mix of rain and snow over the western Dakotas this afternoon. Precip activity is progged to increase in areal coverage and expand southeastward and reach the northern CWA sometime toward mid evening. Initial precip type will be rain as it reaches the northern CWA. However, cold air advection late tonight should be enough to support a rain/snow mix Thursday north of the I-80 corridor. Rain expected to be the dominate precip type then south of I-80. Dynamic forcing associated with the upper low will mean precip chances will continue Thursday night into Friday close to the northeast NE/SD/IA borders. All this in part to strong vort max energy riding down the backside of the exiting upper low. Given track of 500mn HFC/dendritic omega, snow accumulations generally 1 to 3 inches will be found east of a line from Verdigre to about Shenandoah IA. Meanwhile a tight surface pressure gradient will induce northwest wind gusts to generally range 35 to 45 mph. However portions of the CWA could see gusts ranging from 50-60 mph. Because of this a High Wind Watch will be in effect beginning late tonight through Thursday evening for locations west of a line from Sioux City IA to Hebron. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 DMX talking 6"+ in the North and "westward extent" of "robust" snow. Hmmm. National Weather Service Des Moines IA 343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/ Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Confidence: Medium Complicated Storm to Affect the Region Thursday into Friday Today will continue on with a quiet forecast and rather warm temperatures. Though we continue warming aloft, cloud cover moving in will temper highs a bit. We are already in the upper 20s to lower 30s and with a few more degrees lower by morning prior to warming the remainder of the day, highs will recover to the upper 30s east to the upper 40s southwest and south. The main focus will be the system tracking southeast late tonight into Friday, which will be the main challenge moving forward. A two part wave is tracking toward the region with the first and southern- most wave arriving into northwest Iowa by 08-10z Thursday. An area of light rain/snow will develop and move over the region during the morning and early afternoon hours with generally a mix of light rain and snow with only minor accumulations through early afternoon. Though colder air is moving in aloft, surface temperatures actually warm up behind the boundary through the early afternoon. This will allow highs to recover to the 30s to around 40. Winds will increase during the day, especially northwest where gusts could approach 40 mph at times. During the afternoon, temperatures will begin to fall northwest as the upper low begins to consolidate over northeast Iowa. There is generally better consensus among the models today as to the evolution of the system. The main concern currently is the position of the low and eventual westward extent of more robust snowfall from the system. .LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday/ Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 Confidence: Medium Despite the system originating in the Pacific Northwest where usually less moisture is expected with any passing wave, this low will be deepening for about 12 hours prior to filling Friday and also slowing down from late tomorrow afternoon through Friday afternoon. As the H500 low and system becomes more stacked, periods of light snow will continue to spin up around the system from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Overall, precipitation amounts of 0.15 in the far south to up to 0.70 in the north are anticipated for the entire event with about .25 to .50 qpf in the form of snow from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. With colder air aloft and snow ratios running about 13 to 14:1, we could see amounts greater than 6 inches over portions of the north over a 18 hour period. Though snowfall rates will not be a problem, the persistent winds of 30 to nearly 40 mph will cause blowing snow and reduced visibility in blowing snow across the north and northwest, leading to some significant travel impacts. With some uncertainty yet today, will most likely be looking at a possible headline Thursday for the first round of precipitation and then a more extended headline from the evening through a good share of Friday. The area of worst impacts still needs to be nailed down. Lows tomorrow night will fall into the 20s with highs Friday recovering into the upper 20s to lower 30s. With the period of greatest snowfall expected into Friday, the greatest travel impacts will likely be the Friday morning and afternoon commutes until the wind diminishes. The system is expected to fill by Friday afternoon and along with that a gradual lessening of wind. Lingering light snow will continue east into Friday evening with quieter weather returning for Saturday. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 06z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 06Z CMC- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 06Z Euro-- cut back for some. East shift may help E.IA 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 This winter sucks lol Still snowing for most here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 still snowing --- 12Z 3KM NAM- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Models really honing in on central MN. And in general basically most of Minnesota getting hit pretty hard save for the NW 1/4 of the state and along the Canadian border. Most models are spilling significant snows into central and western Iowa as well. It seems I'll be just too far east and/or south for this one. I'm still holding out hope for a wobble SE to get into the 2-4" band, but seems 1-2" is going to be more likely. I'd just like to see some wrap around wind whipped snow squalls. That would be fun. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 RDPS- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 This thing is turning into a little bit of a beast... at least by this winter’s standards. Expecting headlines with the afternoon package, if not by the end of the 12z suite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 RDPS totals are overdone, but even 75% of those is impressive. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 RDPS dry slots eastern Iowa completely. Almost nothing from the wrap around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 How often do you see a sub 29.00 altimeter in Alberta in JAN? 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 How often to you see TCU being reported in Calgary - in the middle of JAN? 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 GFS also mostly dry slots eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 12z GFS- that trowal feature is on this run of GFS- right along I-35 or just W. Wherever it sets up is going to be $$- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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