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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


Tom

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I don't mind missing out on this one.  My area has already been pretty fortunate this winter.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Madtown said:

Just awful for here....I cannot believe the damage done by covid and now lack of snow to the businesses up here...just sad

Where are you located?  I assumed Madtown meant Madison, but based on your posts, that doesn't seem to be where you live.  

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FGF is more confident than I am.

Quote

A low pressure system approaches the southern portions of Manitoba
during the day on Wednesday, with a cold front draped across the
Northern Plains. Temperatures ahead of the cold front remain well
above freezing in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast
area. Moisture is higher along the frontal structure, with strong
pressure gradients behind. With warmer temperatures chances for rain
increase ahead of the front, with the possibility of light freezing
rain as the front passes. There is the possibility of light ice
accumulations, but remains a low possibility as the quick passage of
the front and precipitation won`t allot for the surface to cool fast
enough for the surface to collect the freezing rain. Soundings
indicate the potential, but for it to be brief if any freezing rain
does occur. The transition over to all snow looks to be quick during
the early morning on Thursday.

Ensembles have grown more confidence in the presence of a dry slot
behind the frontal passage through the morning hours on Thursday as
the system trudges eastward. After the dry slow is when ensembles
start to vary between different models. Models have clustered around
two segments where we see a low amount of snow potential and a
higher snowfall potential greater than 4 inches. Confidence is
higher when looking at the timing of winds across the forecast area.
Winds look to be weaker after the frontal passage, with lower lapse
rates and momentum transfer. That changes during Thursday night into
Friday with the likelihood we see 35-40kt gusts at times. Around
this time is also when ensembles have continued to struggle with
precipitation redeveloping behind the low pressure system. Cold air
advection prevails across a majority of North Dakota, with lingering
moisture. Snow looks to develop during the afternoon hours Thursday
and linger through Friday. How much snow develops will be dependent
on if a strong deformation zone forms closer to our area.

The latest trends with most ensembles favor this deformation zone
remaining further southeast and quickly transitioning towards
central and eastern MN limiting potential snow amounts. Snow showers
are still possible within the region of CAA and positive vorticity
advection over our CWA and these could still result in lesser but
localized impacts. At this time east of the valley looks to see the
highest probability of 4 or more inches, while areas west of the
valley has a lower probability near 10% to 30%. Along with the snow
the stronger winds begin to increase in the evening and overnight
Thursday through Friday producing brief period of lower visibility
across the valley and points west. The strongest winds looks to be
concentrated west of the valley where new snow will be required for
any blowing snow impacts. Conditions begin to clear out by Friday
night as the system moves further to the east.

 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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5 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

MPX doesn't need the Euro's 12z run to confirm.  They've pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch for 6-9". Blizzard conditions possible to the south and west.

You guys have had a pretty good snow season even with the lack of sustained cold.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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6 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Used to be. now manitowish waters wi

I had no idea you were way up there.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

UKIE throws me a major bone.  But this is an extreme easterly outlier and has flip flopped dramatically from run to run.

Last night it trended strongly toward the other models, now it goes right back to where it was.  I'd have to see other models show this before I buy it.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Trying to pinpoint any winter event is tough enough. When a "L" gets vertically stacked and basically cut off from the upper level winds is near impossible. This will come down to now forecasting with radar. Trowals esp.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The euro just added a good band of snow for northern IL into southern WI on the front end of the system.  That was not there at all last run.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I wonder if DMX will pull the trigger on headlines with the afternoon package.

My guess is watches (maybe) N of HWY 20 along both sides of I-35. Advisories further S - but those will be issued AM shift tomorrow

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The euro just added a good band of snow for northern IL into southern WI on the front end of the system.  That was not there at all last run.

The UKIE sorta had a similar set up but was warmer over here compared to the euro.  I hope this is a trend for my back yard.

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The extreme warmth ahead of this system is surreal when you think it's mid JAN. It's amazing there is enough cold air to even snow. Who knows- it may not. Pacific moisture getting over the Rockies is always subject without deep cold to advect in. I'am  not sold on any snow models put out here in C.IA.- until this warm air is advected out. 850 will be cold enough but concerned about 2m temps being cold enough. Good thing it's mid winter otherwise this would for sure be a rainer.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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40 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Euro is worlds different from the GFS at 240. GFS is cold for most Canada, Dakotas/Montana/MN, Euro is just the northeast US and eastern Canada. 

Considering the GFS has failed over 7 days out time and time again, I'd side with the Euro.  

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5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Dang and that's only through noon Friday 

and it's just playing catch up with the backwash. Expect increasing totals as it gets closer.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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