Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Another 1-2 incher oh boy! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 12z GFS- that trowal feature is on this run of GFS- right along I-35 or just W. Wherever it sets up is going to be $$- Yeah that trowel is going to provide some nice totals wherever it sets up. Might be the difference between 4" and 8"+. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 I don't mind missing out on this one. My area has already been pretty fortunate this winter. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 12z GDPS... overdone, but nice for some Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just awful for here....I cannot believe the damage done by covid and now lack of snow to the businesses up here...just sad 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Madtown said: Just awful for here....I cannot believe the damage done by covid and now lack of snow to the businesses up here...just sad Where are you located? I assumed Madtown meant Madison, but based on your posts, that doesn't seem to be where you live. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 FGF is more confident than I am. Quote A low pressure system approaches the southern portions of Manitoba during the day on Wednesday, with a cold front draped across the Northern Plains. Temperatures ahead of the cold front remain well above freezing in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. Moisture is higher along the frontal structure, with strong pressure gradients behind. With warmer temperatures chances for rain increase ahead of the front, with the possibility of light freezing rain as the front passes. There is the possibility of light ice accumulations, but remains a low possibility as the quick passage of the front and precipitation won`t allot for the surface to cool fast enough for the surface to collect the freezing rain. Soundings indicate the potential, but for it to be brief if any freezing rain does occur. The transition over to all snow looks to be quick during the early morning on Thursday. Ensembles have grown more confidence in the presence of a dry slot behind the frontal passage through the morning hours on Thursday as the system trudges eastward. After the dry slow is when ensembles start to vary between different models. Models have clustered around two segments where we see a low amount of snow potential and a higher snowfall potential greater than 4 inches. Confidence is higher when looking at the timing of winds across the forecast area. Winds look to be weaker after the frontal passage, with lower lapse rates and momentum transfer. That changes during Thursday night into Friday with the likelihood we see 35-40kt gusts at times. Around this time is also when ensembles have continued to struggle with precipitation redeveloping behind the low pressure system. Cold air advection prevails across a majority of North Dakota, with lingering moisture. Snow looks to develop during the afternoon hours Thursday and linger through Friday. How much snow develops will be dependent on if a strong deformation zone forms closer to our area. The latest trends with most ensembles favor this deformation zone remaining further southeast and quickly transitioning towards central and eastern MN limiting potential snow amounts. Snow showers are still possible within the region of CAA and positive vorticity advection over our CWA and these could still result in lesser but localized impacts. At this time east of the valley looks to see the highest probability of 4 or more inches, while areas west of the valley has a lower probability near 10% to 30%. Along with the snow the stronger winds begin to increase in the evening and overnight Thursday through Friday producing brief period of lower visibility across the valley and points west. The strongest winds looks to be concentrated west of the valley where new snow will be required for any blowing snow impacts. Conditions begin to clear out by Friday night as the system moves further to the east. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 MPX doesn't need the Euro's 12z run to confirm. They've pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch for 6-9". Blizzard conditions possible to the south and west. 2 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 ^- Yeah I don't think it matters much. Your locked and loaded. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: MPX doesn't need the Euro's 12z run to confirm. They've pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch for 6-9". Blizzard conditions possible to the south and west. You guys have had a pretty good snow season even with the lack of sustained cold. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Where are you located? I assumed Madtown meant Madison, but based on your posts, that doesn't seem to be where you live. Used to be. now manitowish waters wi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: You guys have had a pretty good snow season even with the lack of sustained cold. 31" season to date, with about half of that falling during 2 storms in Oct and Nov. It's been a strange but good season so far. We're actually about 5" above normal as of today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Madtown said: Used to be. now manitowish waters wi I had no idea you were way up there. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Hawkeye said: I had no idea you were way up there. Mid Jan 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 UKIE looks like it will be much more favorable for eastern IA this run. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Interesting, the 12z GEFS showing more widespread snowfall... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 I could cry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 UKIE throws me a major bone. But this is an extreme easterly outlier and has flip flopped dramatically from run to run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: UKIE throws me a major bone. But this is an extreme easterly outlier and has flip flopped dramatically from run to run. Last night it trended strongly toward the other models, now it goes right back to where it was. I'd have to see other models show this before I buy it. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 lol I'm the red line 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Trying to pinpoint any winter event is tough enough. When a "L" gets vertically stacked and basically cut off from the upper level winds is near impossible. This will come down to now forecasting with radar. Trowals esp. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro a bit of an improvement in eastern Iowa this run. 2" would be ok with me. I'd rather get it up to 3", but either way the Euro is showing some wrap around snow showers, which will make it feel very wintry around here on Friday. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 I wonder if DMX will pull the trigger on headlines with the afternoon package. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 The euro just added a good band of snow for northern IL into southern WI on the front end of the system. That was not there at all last run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: I wonder if DMX will pull the trigger on headlines with the afternoon package. My guess is watches (maybe) N of HWY 20 along both sides of I-35. Advisories further S - but those will be issued AM shift tomorrow Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: The euro just added a good band of snow for northern IL into southern WI on the front end of the system. That was not there at all last run. The UKIE sorta had a similar set up but was warmer over here compared to the euro. I hope this is a trend for my back yard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 The extreme warmth ahead of this system is surreal when you think it's mid JAN. It's amazing there is enough cold air to even snow. Who knows- it may not. Pacific moisture getting over the Rockies is always subject without deep cold to advect in. I'am not sold on any snow models put out here in C.IA.- until this warm air is advected out. 850 will be cold enough but concerned about 2m temps being cold enough. Good thing it's mid winter otherwise this would for sure be a rainer. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, james1976 said: I wonder if DMX will pull the trigger on headlines with the afternoon package. I'd be quite surprised if they did it this afternoon already. Possible, but more probable in morning package I feel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro is worlds different from the GFS at 240. GFS is cold for most Canada, Dakotas/Montana/MN, Euro is just the northeast US and eastern Canada. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Oops wrong thread whatever 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 40 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Euro is worlds different from the GFS at 240. GFS is cold for most Canada, Dakotas/Montana/MN, Euro is just the northeast US and eastern Canada. Considering the GFS has failed over 7 days out time and time again, I'd side with the Euro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 18z HRRR... I'd be happy with a couple inches. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Stacsh said: Considering the GFS has failed over 7 days out time and time again, I'd side with the Euro. oops just noted wrong thread lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 18z HRRR... I'd be happy with a couple inches. Dang and that's only through noon Friday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, james1976 said: Dang and that's only through noon Friday and it's just playing catch up with the backwash. Expect increasing totals as it gets closer. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 I-35 special through hour 45 on the 18z NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 18z NAM gives SE Neb a little love. Nothing to write home about but would be interesting with the wind. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Oh NAM, put me in the bulls eye for extreme northern minnesota....fool me once shame on you, fool me once twice many times, shame on me. I really want to believe, but I just can't do it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 La Crosse just issued advisories Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Nebraska gets their weekly high wind warning 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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