Bellona Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, james1976 said: La Crosse just issued advisories I think advisory instead of watch because of the duration. Always could upgrade. I still expect dsm to issue a watch for someone. Along and north of 20 probabaly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 18z RDPS- 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 18Z 3km NAM- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: 18z RDPS- In my dreams 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 18z RDPS- Yes please!! Rdps for the win; but probabaly not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 DVN issued a map. 1-2" from north of Iowa City. Basically north of I80. Less than an inch to the south and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 SREF plumes for CR average about 4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 18Z GFS again with trowal right down I-35. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 Mby [quote]Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 330 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 ...Blizzard conditions possible Thurday night into Friday morning... .A strong low pressure system will move through the area tonight and into the weekend. The comibination of strong winds and minor snowfall accumulation may result in blizzard conditions. IAZ043-055-056-NEZ012-015-018-032>034-044-045-140530- /O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0001.210115T0600Z-210115T1800Z/ Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Cedar-Thurston-Wayne-Stanton-Cuming-Burt- Dodge-Washington- Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley, Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Hartington, Laurel, Randolph, Coleridge, Pender, Macy, Walthill, Winnebago, Wayne, Stanton, West Point, Wisner, Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Fremont, and Blair 330 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Nebraska and southwest and west central Iowa. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with low visiblities. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. [/Quote] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 DVN issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Hwy 30 on north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 13, 2021 Report Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: 18Z GFS again with trowal right down I-35. LOVE IT. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 00z HRRR much different than the 18z.... farther west and much wetter. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The 00z NAM is in line with other models. The 00z 3k NAM expands the heavy snow farther east... great for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area. Again, I'd have to see other models trend toward this before I buy it. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3k NAM is outstanding. It doesn't show much (if any) lull between the frontal passage snow tomorrow and the stacked low Friday. Just kind of runs together. DVN talked about a lull between events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3k NAM seems to be on an island all by itself though. What a strange looking storm. Such impressive totals for a stacked low, wrap around system. We just don't see those in Iowa often. I'd love to find a way to get on the eastern edge at least and get a few inches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Anyone have the 18z Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 3k NAM seems to be on an island all by itself though. What a strange looking storm. Such impressive totals for a stacked low, wrap around system. We just don't see those in Iowa often. I'd love to find a way to get on the eastern edge at least and get a few inches. Yes, this is quite a unique system for our region. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 RDPS very similar to the 3k NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 MPX just delayed the start of the Watch by 6 hours due to less mixed precipitation/freezing rain at the onset. 5-9" in the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Rain in January in Fargo is climatologically impossible. 2021: "Hold my beer". 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 I wouldn't have any complaints with this. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The last three runs of the RDPS, for Cedar Rapids, have gone from 1" to 5" to 7". I like the trend. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The GFS hasn't changed a bit. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 00z parallel GFS has improved somewhat 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Someone asked- ,18z Euro Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, Grizzcoat said: Someone asked- ,18z Euro Clearly, the Euro is not buying a farther east expansion of the snow band. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: Clearly, the Euro is not buying a farther east expansion of the snow band. But it's old data compared to 00z stuff. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 GDPS is in line with the NAM and GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: GDPS is in line with the NAM and GFS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 hours ago, Tom said: Interesting, the 12z GEFS showing more widespread snowfall... Any legitimacy to that tho or is it a fluke "eye candy" run? I see that's all the way til next week as well. What is it doing differently that causes this result? Thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 UK is back west a bit. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: The GFS hasn't changed a bit. The heavier snow area is a bit wider compared to previous run if im not mistaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Whoa, big change from the Euro... great for CR/IC. The strong upper low spins up farther southeast, which allows heavy snow to focus here. 2 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Euro Kuchera- 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The period from 00z-06z, Thursday evening, is the key period on the Euro. It fires heavy snow over CR/IC then. If that does not happen, as other models show, we will get much less. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The period from 00z-06z, Thursday evening, is the key period on the Euro. It fires heavy snow over CR/IC then. If that does not happen, as other models show, we will get much less. Love me some January sprinkles Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The Euro might be on to something for you guys in E.IA. Long range RAP is also showing something similar. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The HRRR continues to be nothing like the Euro. It develops the surface low well north of the Euro and pulls a massive dry slot up over eastern Iowa. I'm thinking this will play out closer to the HRRR than the Euro. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The HRRR continues to be nothing like the Euro. It develops the surface low well north of the Euro and pulls a massive dry slot up over eastern Iowa. Give it some time to adjust. I have no clue why they extended the HRRR- maybe just to see potential precip but as far as QPF, I don't trust it outside 10 hours. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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