Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 DMX out with some new graphics- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3KM NAM- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: Any legitimacy to that tho or is it a fluke "eye candy" run? I see that's all the way til next week as well. What is it doing differently that causes this result? Thx I posted the map through Mon bc there is another piece of energy that rotates across the lower lakes region and it includes that wave as well. 00z GEFS still holding onto that idea... 00z Euro...take what we can get from this system at this point...not expecting much for the 1st half of this storm over here. IA/MN peeps are in for a treat from what I'm seeing. Very rare stacked ULL in the low 990's that spins for over 24 hours is quite a storm to track in our region. I like some of the features the models are showing as the ULL tracks S of the area producing convective looking snow showers/squalls. 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Blizzard warnings up for NE SD. I hope it's a trend.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 250 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-141800- /O.UPG.KABR.WS.A.0001.210114T1800Z-210116T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KABR.BZ.W.0001.210114T1800Z-210116T0000Z/ Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant- Hamlin-Deuel- Including the cities of Wheaton, Ortonville, Britton, Sisseton, Webster, Clark, Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, and Clear Lake 250 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. In Minnesota, the latest road conditions can be obtained at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1. In South Dakota, the latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Parkin 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 I think a trend has started - Blizzard Warning for NW MO!!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 322 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...Blizzard Conditions Expected Late Tonight in Northwest Missouri... MOZ001>005-011-012-141800- /O.NEW.KEAX.BZ.W.0001.210115T0600Z-210116T0000Z/ Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Holt-Andrew- Including the cities of Tarkio, Rockport, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, and Country Club Villa 322 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Missouri. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may decrease quickly between bursts of snowfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 DMX hosting blizzard warnings as well as FSD. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 GFS not backing down. Crazy how consistent it's been/ 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Sweetness is 5-9" and the BIG B. 5 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 @Grizzcoat, this system is turning into "Beast Mode"...IA snow magnet in full effect...who was it that predicted this system to be a Blizzard??? Haha, J/K...wish it coulda shared some over this way but I'll take my scraps for the 2nd part of the storm. 00z EPS...looking good for a lot of folks and even down into MO! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 DMX Xgames Mode Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Des Moines IA 404 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...Blizzard Conditions Western into Central Iowa Tonight into Friday with Significant Travel Impacts Expected... .The first of two waves of wintry precipitation is moving into the state this morning with some limited impacts this morning. There will be a short dry period later this morning into a part of this afternoon before the second wave of precipitation moves into the state. Snow accompanied by strong winds will create blizzard conditions over western Iowa and toward the I-35 corridor tonight into Friday. Significant travel impacts with near impossible travel at times later tonight into Friday is expected. Snow will end Friday night, but travel impacts will linger. IAZ060-073-141815- /O.NEW.KDMX.WS.W.0001.210115T0600Z-210116T0000Z/ Polk-Warren- Including the cities of Des Moines, Indianola, Norwalk, and Carlisle 404 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected with total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Central Iowa. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult if not impossible at times with blowing snow significantly reducing visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/12/2021 at 1:09 AM, Grizzcoat said: Would not be surprised if FSD or even DMX or MSP mentions the potential of the "B" word for NW IA, SW MN and vicinity with these kinds of winds- and these are likely underdone. Couldn't get the entire screen to fit, but these are in KT. This may also give DLH a rare lake effect event but the delta "T" s are not that impressive. #TOM- you mean this post?? Yah- I called it!!! :O) 1 1 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Rapid City has been gusting 79mph for past several hours. Not just a one a done gust- this is truly synoptic. KRAP 141052Z AUTO 32049G63KT 10SM SCT100 02/M12 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/1027 SLP128 T00171122 KRAP 140952Z AUTO 32039G65KT 10SM FEW060 SCT075 SCT090 02/M11 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 32067/0916 SLP122 T00171111 KRAP 140852Z AUTO 32034G62KT 10SM OVC060 02/M10 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/0836 SLP120 T00221100 53026 KRAP 140752Z AUTO 31042G63KT 10SM CLR 03/M14 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND 30063/0745 SLP104 T00281144 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: #TOM- you mean this post?? Yah- I called it!!! :O) Ya buddy! Good call... For reference, it was this post I made back in late Dec...I'm looking forward to the next storm a week from Fri/Sat that's showing up. Man, I'm really digging the LR pattern...it's loaded with opportunities. I'm going to rest for a couple hours and catch some Zzzz's but later on I'll share some LR thoughts and what the models are showing. Fun times. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 I agree. This was called out almost two weeks ago to the day. I was just looking for text I sent to people that said we could be in for an interesting one around the 15th. Thanks for the heads up on LR. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 06Z Euro still has that heavy snow over E.IA NW IL, But the RAP at the sametime- way different. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 6z Euro. For mby an inch or so of snow but will feel wintery with a 40mph wind. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The op Euro is still an outlier. The 00z 3k NAM had something similar, but the 06z did a major reversal back west. The 12z HRRR is not looking much better than previous runs. I'm going with 1-3" for my area. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The op Euro is still an outlier. The 00z 3k NAM had something similar, but the 06z did a major reversal back west. The 12z HRRR is not looking much better than previous runs. I'm going with 1-3" for my area. I think your good for 4". Sharp cutoff though. W side may see 5". Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 James won't like the 12z HRRR one bit. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Almost nothing for Michigan. Big sad. Again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The HRRR is trending closer to the Euro in eastern Iowa. It just shows very low snow ratios on Kuchera. I really am not sure what to think, but it certainly looks like we will miss out on the wrap around snows, or most of it anyways. So we're talking mostly front end of the system and I don't see that accumulating several inches. So I'm more in the 1-3" camp myself. I suppose we could get lucky and squeak out 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 I think thats bright banding on the OMX radar. If so- it bodes well. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 WSW and HWW but no blizzard warning... I'm lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 nice band sitting overhead helping to saturate the column. Nothing reaching the ground yet, but if the colder air catches up soon it would give more confidence in reaching the forecasted amounts. This is going to be fun to watch today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Really loving the trends. This thing has overall come a bit SE. I'm on the west edge of the advisory. Just 2 counties to my west is the blizzard warning. Come east a bit more! DMX mentioned how rare of a track this type of system is taking. Another legit blizzard for the midwest?! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 12k NAM is much better with snow expansion into eastern Iowa, but the 3k NAM, which was equal to the Euro at 00z, has reversed even farther and is one of the lighter models now for my area. With the 3k NAM going backward, I'm definitely not buying the bigger totals around here now. I feel good about 1-3". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 About to go into severe depression up here...this is almost comical 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 A few pingers now hitting the deck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Freezing rain here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 This lil beast is going to look like a "mini cane" on radar...incredible dynamics with this storm...it's going to sit and spin over E IA for like 20 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an intense snow band right near the SLP similar to an eye wall. Wild stuff! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Already flipped to all snow and accumulating. This was supposed to stay a mix until early afternoon. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Got a couple of flakes mixing in. I still don't understand OAX. All the stuff is there for a blizzard warning but nope just going to give you all the other watches and warnings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, Tom said: This lil beast is going to look like a "mini cane" on radar...incredible dynamics with this storm...it's going to sit and spin over E IA for like 20 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an intense snow band right near the SLP similar to an eye wall. Wild stuff! wow what a winter to remember for the iowa/minnesota peeps in the sub! System looking awesome 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 DMX just updated! Edged the blizzard warning a row of counties eastward. Its the county just to my west now. Come on baby 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 GFS just went full Euro in Eastern Iowa. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Looks like there is a pretty nasty dry slot and possibly some rain sprinkles about to move in from the south. Pretty awesome we already got column saturated and snowing here and it is only 10 AM! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 New GFS coming in similar as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Diggin the trends! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The GFS shows rapid intensification between noon and 6pm in eastern Iowa today. Almost all of the snow for CR and IC falls between 3pm and midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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