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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


Tom

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There is still many pieces to the puzzle of this storm that are still unknown. Right now- I would hedge away from mid range models such as GFS,CMC even RDPS and focus on NAM - 3KM nam but MAINLY on HRRR and RAP (amounts in the 10 hr range) and precip location in the longer range.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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TOP AFD discussed Blizzard Warnings could be issued for east of Seneca to Lawrence line in northeast Kansas if 12z model trends support it.  I may end up with flurries...but the HRRR has been most generous to me so I am rooting for it...lol

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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The twists and turns when having to track a vigorous cut-off ULL....I remember a few years back tracking a monster storm like this but it was farther N up into MN/WI and the short range models didn't have a clue.  There were some nice surprises and also let downs.  That's what makes storm tracking fun.  Good luck to everyone that has headlines!

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Give it awhile guys. Your talking RAP / HRRR out past 24hrs. It's NOT designed for that imo. If this evening it's showing that dry slot- than I'd be concernced.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The latest HRRR is down to about an inch for CR/IC.  We would have to get most of our snow this evening into early tonight, but the HRRR has very little.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

The twists and turns when having to track a vigorous cut-off ULL....I remember a few years back tracking a monster storm like this but it was farther N up into MN/WI and the short range models didn't have a clue.  There were some nice surprises and also let downs.  That's what makes storm tracking fun.  Good luck to everyone that has headlines!

Well said.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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People see these large totals on the HRRR and RAP at hours past what they were NOT designed for (20+) and than almost ALWAYS totals come down to  NWS forecast amounts almost always inside 14-16 hours. It can go the other way to- but rare.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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28 minutes ago, Stormgeek said:

Well, that dry slot looking thing filled in with all snow and flake size is decent! You can tell just by looking at it, that it is going to be concrete type snow.

Yeah this is coming together nicely. I like where we sit based on the current radar and the fact the snow started earlier than predicted. 

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Every Blizzard deserves a song. This is the one I play whenever I get in WSW or, in this case , a Blizzard.

I understand it's song about cocaine. But weather is my natural drug. Here goes

"What you get and what you see
Things that don't come easily"

  (model watching sucks compared to reality)

"Let the winter sun shine on
Let me feel the frost of dawn
Fill my dreams with flakes of snow
Soon I'll feel the chilling glow"
  (that's D**n awesome lyrics for a winter lover- though I know it wasn't meant that way)
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Looks like a lot of models have a tight gradient right between Omaha and Lincoln. That would be annoying to have it so close yet so far. It'll be nice to see flakes at least because I just realized I haven't since Dec 23rd (gone Dec 29th and LNK has reported a trace since but I'm pretty sure I was asleep). 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Every Blizzard deserves a song. This is the one I play whenever I get in WSW or, in this case , a Blizzard.

I understand it's song about cocaine. But weather is my natural drug. Here goes

why not both? 😆

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

why not both? 😆

One or the other. Not both.  Both combined is TOO much. I'll take the natural route and actually enjoy the results rather than decompress for 3 days.....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

TOP AFD discussed Blizzard Warnings could be issued for east of Seneca to Lawrence line in northeast Kansas if 12z model trends support it.  I may end up with flurries...but the HRRR has been most generous to me so I am rooting for it...lol

I think I will end up with some sort of advisory, trending towards a couple of inches with wind.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Ya buddy!  Good call...

For reference, it was this post I made back in late Dec...I'm looking forward to the next storm a week from Fri/Sat that's showing up.  Man, I'm really digging the LR pattern...it's loaded with opportunities.  I'm going to rest for a couple hours and catch some Zzzz's but later on I'll share some LR thoughts and what the models are showing.  Fun times.

 

l remember this. Great call wrt the LRC dates of storms. Horrible misfortune calling for Lwr. Lakes/OHV to be in the game. sigh..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

Whatever the Euro was smoking last night, it has now laid off of it.  Totals in Eastern Iowa now in line with other models.  

Quite odd the King would change in that time frame.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I feel like OAX will convert the watch to a B word warning. Maybe an advisory on the edges including Lincoln. 18z HRRR has 2" for Omaha....4-5" not far away across the river. LNK gets a pity 1/2" 😆

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Wasn't expecting much for the CHI area but LOT's update is saying its warmer than expected. 

Snow trends have changed slightly for this present system.
Observations and initial soundings show a warmer atmosphere than
originally indicated, and model soundings continue this trend. We
have bumped our surface temperatures upward somewhat to reflect
these slightly warmer conditions. With warmer temperatures in our
column and at the surface, the transition from rain to snow will
occur later, and confidence that some areas further southeast will
turn to snow at all is not high. With these changes, expected
snow accumulations are lower, and primarily limited to our
northwestern counties, with up to 1 to 1.5 inches the expected
amounts. Future messaging will reflect these changes, which will
also include the likelihood that impacts are minimal to the
commute for most of if not the entire area.

 

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Both NAMs have given up on eastern Iowa.  After an inch or two, a massive dry slot sweeps over the area.  A couple days ago it looked likely the low would pop and spin right over eastern Iowa with little snow directly under the low.  We were teased by a few models runs since then, but now we're right back to the original scenario.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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