Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 RDPS is going backward again like the 3k NAM. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 There is still many pieces to the puzzle of this storm that are still unknown. Right now- I would hedge away from mid range models such as GFS,CMC even RDPS and focus on NAM - 3KM nam but MAINLY on HRRR and RAP (amounts in the 10 hr range) and precip location in the longer range. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 And as I previously mentioned in prior storm thread- I'll take the RAP over HRRR- especially for amounts. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: And as I previously mentioned in prior storm thread- I'll take the RAP over HRRR- especially for amounts. For Mby sake I hope the Rap is wrong this go around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Whats the latest RAP look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 48 minutes ago, james1976 said: DMX just updated! Edged the blizzard warning a row of counties eastward. Its the county just to my west now. Come on baby One more county for you and two for me. Keep pushing east!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 TOP AFD discussed Blizzard Warnings could be issued for east of Seneca to Lawrence line in northeast Kansas if 12z model trends support it. I may end up with flurries...but the HRRR has been most generous to me so I am rooting for it...lol 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, james1976 said: Whats the latest RAP look like? 1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Yikes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Well, that dry slot looking thing filled in with all snow and flake size is decent! You can tell just by looking at it, that it is going to be concrete type snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The twists and turns when having to track a vigorous cut-off ULL....I remember a few years back tracking a monster storm like this but it was farther N up into MN/WI and the short range models didn't have a clue. There were some nice surprises and also let downs. That's what makes storm tracking fun. Good luck to everyone that has headlines! 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Boo!! HISS!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Give it awhile guys. Your talking RAP / HRRR out past 24hrs. It's NOT designed for that imo. If this evening it's showing that dry slot- than I'd be concernced. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 The latest HRRR is down to about an inch for CR/IC. We would have to get most of our snow this evening into early tonight, but the HRRR has very little. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: The twists and turns when having to track a vigorous cut-off ULL....I remember a few years back tracking a monster storm like this but it was farther N up into MN/WI and the short range models didn't have a clue. There were some nice surprises and also let downs. That's what makes storm tracking fun. Good luck to everyone that has headlines! Well said. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 People see these large totals on the HRRR and RAP at hours past what they were NOT designed for (20+) and than almost ALWAYS totals come down to NWS forecast amounts almost always inside 14-16 hours. It can go the other way to- but rare. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 28 minutes ago, Stormgeek said: Well, that dry slot looking thing filled in with all snow and flake size is decent! You can tell just by looking at it, that it is going to be concrete type snow. Yeah this is coming together nicely. I like where we sit based on the current radar and the fact the snow started earlier than predicted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 I still like I-35 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Every Blizzard deserves a song. This is the one I play whenever I get in WSW or, in this case , a Blizzard. I understand it's song about cocaine. But weather is my natural drug. Here goes "What you get and what you see Things that don't come easily" (model watching sucks compared to reality) "Let the winter sun shine on Let me feel the frost of dawn Fill my dreams with flakes of snow Soon I'll feel the chilling glow" (that's D**n awesome lyrics for a winter lover- though I know it wasn't meant that way) 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Looks like a lot of models have a tight gradient right between Omaha and Lincoln. That would be annoying to have it so close yet so far. It'll be nice to see flakes at least because I just realized I haven't since Dec 23rd (gone Dec 29th and LNK has reported a trace since but I'm pretty sure I was asleep). Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Every Blizzard deserves a song. This is the one I play whenever I get in WSW or, in this case , a Blizzard. I understand it's song about cocaine. But weather is my natural drug. Here goes why not both? Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: why not both? One or the other. Not both. Both combined is TOO much. I'll take the natural route and actually enjoy the results rather than decompress for 3 days..... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Radar isn't setting up well for here. At all. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, mlgamer said: TOP AFD discussed Blizzard Warnings could be issued for east of Seneca to Lawrence line in northeast Kansas if 12z model trends support it. I may end up with flurries...but the HRRR has been most generous to me so I am rooting for it...lol I think I will end up with some sort of advisory, trending towards a couple of inches with wind. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 hours ago, Tom said: Ya buddy! Good call... For reference, it was this post I made back in late Dec...I'm looking forward to the next storm a week from Fri/Sat that's showing up. Man, I'm really digging the LR pattern...it's loaded with opportunities. I'm going to rest for a couple hours and catch some Zzzz's but later on I'll share some LR thoughts and what the models are showing. Fun times. l remember this. Great call wrt the LRC dates of storms. Horrible misfortune calling for Lwr. Lakes/OHV to be in the game. sigh.. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Whatever the Euro was smoking last night, it has now laid off of it. Totals in Eastern Iowa now in line with other models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, bud2380 said: Whatever the Euro was smoking last night, it has now laid off of it. Totals in Eastern Iowa now in line with other models. Quite odd the King would change in that time frame. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, Clinton said: I think I will end up with some sort of advisory, trending towards a couple of inches with wind. ill be happy with Lawrence being placed under a blizzard warning:) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Bellona said: Boo!! HISS!!! Careful. Don’t blow it further west than it already shows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Euro with another big storm in a week. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Cool! Just had a brief snow shower in MBY with a temp of 46F. The atmosphere is really getting amped up out there! 1 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 about 1" down so far, with some melting on the roads as the temp is hovering right at 32F. Nice steady snow. Visibility around 1mi. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Still incessant drizzle here. Only saving grace is that temps are about 4° lower than forecasted. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 I feel like OAX will convert the watch to a B word warning. Maybe an advisory on the edges including Lincoln. 18z HRRR has 2" for Omaha....4-5" not far away across the river. LNK gets a pity 1/2" 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Wasn't expecting much for the CHI area but LOT's update is saying its warmer than expected. Snow trends have changed slightly for this present system. Observations and initial soundings show a warmer atmosphere than originally indicated, and model soundings continue this trend. We have bumped our surface temperatures upward somewhat to reflect these slightly warmer conditions. With warmer temperatures in our column and at the surface, the transition from rain to snow will occur later, and confidence that some areas further southeast will turn to snow at all is not high. With these changes, expected snow accumulations are lower, and primarily limited to our northwestern counties, with up to 1 to 1.5 inches the expected amounts. Future messaging will reflect these changes, which will also include the likelihood that impacts are minimal to the commute for most of if not the entire area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 18z HRRR... It was wise to not buy into the Euro with little other support for that. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 WWA issued for mby. 1-3 in of snow and 45mph gust. This storm is quite the wind producer. 4 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 18z HRRR... It was wise to not buy into the Euro with little other support for that. Looks a tad better for mby compared to last run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 14, 2021 Report Share Posted January 14, 2021 Both NAMs have given up on eastern Iowa. After an inch or two, a massive dry slot sweeps over the area. A couple days ago it looked likely the low would pop and spin right over eastern Iowa with little snow directly under the low. We were teased by a few models runs since then, but now we're right back to the original scenario. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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