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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


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10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Being born and raised in MN- I agree with this. Also- Fargo also has avg snowfall quite a bit lower than MPLS-- NOTusing the 30 year avg's but avg's since records were taken- MPX is 43.3- Fargo is 40.3. Fargo does have a few mighty ones at 117 (96-97') but also has a lot of duds compared to MPLS. The 117 in 96-97' skews the 30 year avg which is 49 compared to 45+ in MPLS. If I had to pick Fargo or MPLS to live for snow- I'd take MPLS every day, maybe not that big FALL or SPRING event, but who cares, it's going to melt soon anyway.

Getting off topic for this thread, but just have to add about 96-97 winter.  I can't think of a superlative strong enough to describe the huge snowfall that year for the Red River valley.  Looking back at the numbers, its hard to believe that winter could even be real.  

I grew up in central mn but have relatives in Kittson county in extreme NW Minnesota and got regular updates that year along with visiting them over Christmas break 1996 I saw some of it myself.  They had 2 feet of snow on the ground from end of November until April.  Was there memorial day weekend for cousins graduation and there was still a snowdrift in one of the fields. 

On the downside they had a massive ice storm in march that snapped hundreds of miles power lines like twigs followed by unprecedented flooding in spring when all that snow melted.  Between snowstorms/blizzards, ice storm, and flooding my cousins had no 5 day school weeks after New Years.  In spring they were taking the high school students out of school to help sand bag for flood control.   

 

Back to the current event.  I am not expecting to much for northern minnesota except for the extreeme arrowhead.   whatever models put out 4-5 days in advance we are just in a pattern that leads to storms falling flat around here.  It will change sometime....probably in April. 

 

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Just got in from busting drifts in the country. This is the kind of site I really don't care what I look like, let her buck!! Gotta like the 91' Twins coat!!!wind driven snow removed one of my contact

Hi, I'm new but I've been reading you guys for a long time (several years).  Just wanted to pop in and say everything is closed in my town: manufacturing plants, banks, restaurants, even the doctors o

I'm not sure I got to the 6.5 they said the airport had, but with it compacting it's possible. Was pretty nonetheless

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Beltrami Island-

That winter of 96-97 I worked at a Gander Mtn store in Fridley,MN. All I did is fish fish fish and more fish. Ice fishing that year I caught this on the Rainy River right at Indus Rapids- (usually doesn't freeze over , but -50F (( -60F in Tower)) will do that.  31.5" 11.5 lbs. My buddies caught several others near this size. If you got the guts- fish Indus Rapids in the  late Winter- but be prepared with ice picks and PFD's as the ice even a cold year is razor thin.

https://photos.bwca.com/w/WHITEWOLF-120716-221259.JPG

I also fished that Spring for the SD/MN opener on Big Stone lake. There are still ponds/small lakes in the area that weren't their previous to the winter of 96-97'. Also- I remember an old lady that lived rural near Crookston that needed to be dug out by a front end loader. Winds and snow had literally drifted her house "over'. I tried searching it years back but got nothing. But it's the truth.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Beltrami Island-

That winter of 96-97 I worked at a Gander Mtn store in Fridely,MN. All I did is fish fish fish and more fish. Ice fishing that year I caught this on the Rainy River right at Indus Rapids- (usually doesn't freeze over , but -50F (( -60F in Tower)) will do that.  31.5" 11.5 lbs.

https://photos.bwca.com/w/WHITEWOLF-120716-221259.JPG

I also fished that Spring for the SD/MN opener on Big Stone lake. There are still ponds/small lakes in the area that weren't their previous to the winter of 96-97'. Also- I remember an old lady that lived rural near Crookston that needed to be dug out by a front end loader. Winds and snow had literally drifted her house "over'. I tried searching it years back but got nothing. But it's the truth.

Nice Fish!

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The air that wraps around this big low isn't particularly cold.  We only drop into the 20s.

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

There is quite a gradient of decreasing average annual snowfall from east to west across MN extending into ND.  This trend shows up as a hard cut off point for weak to moderate snowfalls somewhere between Detroit Lakes MN and about Jamestown ND.  Fargo is often in near this hard cutoff zone.  It takes a strong storm to overcome this climo and there have no strong snowstorms so far this winter.  

Oh yeah, never denied that. This specific season, though, it has been exactly the Red River with zero variation for every single storm. Gets tiring after a while lol

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The UK has shifted east quite a bit.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Holy crud Okie!  That's incredible snow totals for a mostly wrap around type system.  I'd take 5" and run.  Although it's now so far east that I'm on the western edge.  Suffice to say, this probably won't be the last change we see with this one. 

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Well, this was fun to track for a day.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The Euro is nothing like the UK.  East-central IA gets crap on the Euro because the center of the upper low parks over us.  The UK is probably bogus.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is nothing like the UK.  East-central IA gets crap on the Euro because the center of the upper low parks over us.  The UK is probably bogus.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

we can always count on Mr. No for his input. I wanna just toss it

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12ZEuro- getting more Westerly wrapped and occluded. Which makes some sense- image.thumb.png.dea27560cd23036fb3038cd226a526c4.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Hell yeah. It might even retrograde. The cold air I'am seeing at upper levels means higher ratios on the backside. Maybe 15:1. The front end will be wet, if not rain. But this system nuts and bolts are on the backside with slowing ..... Not going to post- but look at the upper level cold air it draws in. Just enough for someone to get 6" imo.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Hell yeah. It might even retrograde. The cold air I'am seeing at upper levels means higher ratios on the backside. Maybe 15:1. The front end will be wet, if not rain. But this system nuts and bolts are on the backside with slowing ..... Not going to post- but look at the upper level cold air it draws in. Just enough for someone to get 6" imo.

Thoughts up this way Griz?

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GRR says this system is meh at best and also meh for future snowfall into next week other than lakeshore areas. 

 

-- Transition from rain to snow late Thursday into early Friday --

The models look like they have to come into a good consensus that
precipitation with the Thu/Fri system will start to develop over the
area later Thursday afternoon. This precipitation should start out
as mainly rain for most of the area as the lower levels will start
out above freezing up through 850 mb. This will not last long
however as evaporative cooling will occur, and turn any rain to snow
up north, with the south holding on to rain a little bit longer.

It does look like we will not see significant precipitation ahead of
this system, keeping snow accumulations in check. The limited
precipitation will be a result of limited Gulf moisture being drawn
into the system before the front moves east of the area. There could
be a couple of inches of snow across Central Lower, but it could be
much worse if better and deeper moisture was in place. All locations
will gradually see any rain change over to snow as the cooler air
moves in.

-- Cooler Friday through next week with occasional lake effect
chances --

There has been a decent amount of consistency in showing we will not
see significant amounts of precipitation, lake effect or synoptic,
after the front moves through. We will miss out on the deformation
snow on the NW side of this system. The air coming in in not all
that cold, only around -6 to -8C. This is not really sufficient
instability for lake effect. We will see a few snow showers, with
maybe some lake help, but nothing significant, especially by mid-
January standards. The snow showers will be more associated with the
filling upper low overhead.

Once the upper low gets kicked out, we will see the NW flow somewhat
similar to the current pattern gain control of the region. The
difference between the current pattern, and the one that will take
place on Sunday, is that colder air will be available. We will
continue to see short waves move through, but they will have more of
a potential to bring some lake effect snow showers along with light
synoptic amounts.

Overall, we continue to not expect a significant amount of snow in
any one location in a short period of time over the next week. We
will see the snow pack build up, especially near the lakeshore, as
we see a couple inches fall at times from Friday through next
Tuesday.
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OH CANADA!  :P Hey, it did really well with the storm between Christmas and New Years.  So hopefully for my sake it's on to something.  This would easily be the greatest wrap around snowstorm of my lifetime. 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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DVN is not impressed at all.  "Less than an inch". 

 

Thursday night and Friday: Occluded closed upper low will dig
southeast into IA/IL. The associated cold pocket will be conducive
to snow showers and light snow but accumulations are expected to
be less than an inch, as moisture is somewhat limited due to lack
of Gulf moisture entrained into the system. With the stacked low
coming across eastern IA, the tighter pressure gradient should
remain to our west and northwest where the higher winds will be.
Due to the snow showers and possible stronger winds on Friday,
snow squalls may be an issue but the deciding factor will be low
level instability. Later shifts can monitor the situation. Highs
will be around 30.

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Dmx talking warnings / advisory in AFD. Been 17 days, that's how this winter rolls here.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK has shifted east quite a bit.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Lol. Even the bogus weenie run only gets me to 1"

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Whatever snow exists on the back side looks to be squally in nature. Strong CAA should yield seasonably steep lapse rates and CAPE. 

gfs_2021011218_072_43.5--93.0.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Euro, while the last run didn't have great accumulations, is probably my last hope for decent accumulations in regards to low placement. Sad that it's still 500+ miles away from all the other models 24 hours out.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 20.9"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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I'll take that 18z Euro. I wonder if this could be a situation like right before Christmas with not much snow but blizzard conditions. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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Regular Canadian is white gold for many. Simple best case scenario for W.Ia

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Models are trending towards the Euro. Not looking too good in eastern Iowa. I was hoping for a few inches but that seems unlikely. 1-2” seems like as good as I can hope for here based on current model trends. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Yep, the models are beginning to agree.  It now appears there won't be much on the front end, then the upper low spins over my area and the backwash snow mostly sags south over central/western Iowa.

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some raw #'s--

Just W of DSM- mby-

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.60  LON =  -93.88

                                            00Z JAN13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 00Z 13-JAN   2.3     4.3    1017      81      44             563     550    
WED 06Z 13-JAN   1.1     6.1    1015      83      47             562     550    
WED 12Z 13-JAN  -0.1     7.4    1012      78      24    0.00     560     550    
WED 18Z 13-JAN   4.8     7.9    1008      64      43    0.00     556     549    
THU 00Z 14-JAN   1.3     9.4    1004      77      53    0.00     556     552    
THU 06Z 14-JAN   1.0     8.3    1001      79      54    0.00     552     551    
THU 12Z 14-JAN   1.8     2.5     999      78      90    0.00     545     545    
THU 18Z 14-JAN   2.7    -5.0    1002      84      97    0.13     531     530    
FRI 00Z 15-JAN   1.2    -5.9    1001      77      96    0.01     526     526    
FRI 06Z 15-JAN   0.0    -6.3     999      84      98    0.07     524     525    
FRI 12Z 15-JAN  -0.9    -6.7     997      89     100    0.13     523     526    
FRI 18Z 15-JAN   0.8    -6.2    1001      91      97    0.09     527     526    
SAT 00Z 16-JAN   0.2    -5.9    1007      92      79    0.09     533     528    
SAT 06Z 16-JAN  -0.7    -6.1    1010      90      98    0.04     538     530 

 

OMA- (not out of this by any stretch)

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA    LAT=  41.30 LON=  -95.90 ELE=   981

                                            00Z JAN13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 00Z 13-JAN   3.9     5.6    1016      74      48             565     551    
WED 06Z 13-JAN   1.2     7.7    1015      72      28             564     552    
WED 12Z 13-JAN   0.5     8.0    1012      64      21    0.00     561     552    
WED 18Z 13-JAN   7.8    10.0    1008      43      37    0.00     559     552    
THU 00Z 14-JAN   4.8     9.5    1004      69      25    0.00     559     556    
THU 06Z 14-JAN   5.4     9.2     999      63      70    0.00     553     553    
THU 12Z 14-JAN   3.8    -2.2    1005      84     100    0.03     540     536    
THU 18Z 14-JAN   6.3    -4.3    1005      38      97    0.01     531     527    
FRI 00Z 15-JAN   2.3    -6.5    1005      58     100    0.03     529     524    
FRI 06Z 15-JAN   0.0    -8.1    1005      71      98    0.04     528     525    
FRI 12Z 15-JAN  -1.3    -8.9    1004      76      99    0.12     529     526    
FRI 18Z 15-JAN  -0.6    -8.0    1007      75      98    0.09     533     528    
SAT 00Z 16-JAN  -1.2    -7.9    1012      79      98    0.02     539     529    
SAT 06Z 16-JAN  -1.7    -7.5    1015      78      53    0.02     543     531

 

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MSP- (odd that 850's are actually colder further S and W)

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MSP    LAT=  44.88 LON=  -93.22 ELE=   837

                                            00Z JAN13
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 00Z 13-JAN  -0.2     3.4    1012      85      40             556     546    
WED 06Z 13-JAN  -1.5     4.7    1011      89      36             554     545    
WED 12Z 13-JAN  -3.3     4.9    1009      89      44    0.00     552     545    
WED 18Z 13-JAN   2.2     4.2    1007      75      83    0.00     549     544    
THU 00Z 14-JAN   1.4     5.3    1003      83      89    0.00     549     547    
THU 06Z 14-JAN  -0.2     5.3    1000      89      51    0.00     546     546    
THU 12Z 14-JAN  -0.1     0.8     999      92      98    0.02     540     542    
THU 18Z 14-JAN   0.6    -3.7     997      95      97    0.17     535     537    
FRI 00Z 15-JAN  -0.2    -5.4     996      97      98    0.20     531     534    
FRI 06Z 15-JAN   0.4    -5.2     996      95      98    0.17     530     534    
FRI 12Z 15-JAN   0.7    -5.2     999      92      97    0.19     529     530    
FRI 18Z 15-JAN   1.2    -5.4    1003      90      88    0.05     533     530    
SAT 00Z 16-JAN   0.7    -5.8    1007      92      96    0.08     536     530    
SAT 06Z 16-JAN  -0.2    -6.5    1011      87      86    0.03     540     531 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Earlier I mentioned the winter of 96-97 and woman's house buried and had to be dug out. This pic and article are not that, but you get the idea. I had a buddy that was going to school in Moorehead and I-94 was literally shut down every 2-3 days for a month.  Think I'am over hyping it?

from the article-

"Blizzards struck western or west-central Minnesota Nov. 16-17, Dec. 17-19, Dec. 20-21, Dec. 23, Dec. 31, Jan. 15-16, Jan. 21-22, March 4, and even on April 5-6 during a huge flood fight to hold back the swelling Red River. Total seasonal snowfall in the Fargo-Moorhead area was 117 inches, which set up worst flooding ever, according to the DNR."

 

 

https://www.dl-online.com/news/4559868-think-bad-you-should-have-seen-winter-1996-97

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Eastern Iowa doesn't even get a lot of wind from this system now because the stacked low will be crawling directly over us.

season snowfall: 51.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro...snowfall through Mon as there is another upper level feature that some of the models are picking up on rotating through on Sun/Mon that fills in the gap from the initial strong ULL.  IF, this comes into fruition, then I'd say it would be a welcome sight for those who miss out on the main system.

1.png

 

00z EPS...virtically stacked ULL right over N IL is not good for the main show but then the second piece tracking over the area bodes well for those who miss out on the 1st round of snows.  It also appears to ignite the LES for SW MI peeps.  IA folks looking better as the system is trending farther S with the main snow shield.

2.png

 

3.png

 

 

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6Z -- 12KM and 3Km NAM push snow well into MO. here's the 3km through HR 60 --still snowing for many. ALso a good sign that NAM suite is finally picking up the wrap around. snku_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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