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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


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This system has got some mojo. When is the last time you saw a Severe Thunderstorm warning for Seattle area (North) in the middle of JAN?

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
WAC029-031-055-057-061-130915-
/O.NEW.KSEW.SV.W.0001.210113T0819Z-210113T0915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1219 AM PST Wed Jan 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Snohomish County in west central Washington...
  Southeastern San Juan County in northwestern Washington...
  Northeastern Jefferson County in northwestern Washington...
  Northern Island County in northwestern Washington...
  Western Skagit County in northwestern Washington...

* Until 115 AM PST

* At 1217 AM PST, a line of showers producing strong winds was
  located near Oak Harbor, moving east at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Marysville, Mount Vernon, Oak Harbor, Arlington, Anacortes,
  Sedro-Woolley, Port Townsend, Burlington, Stanwood, Lake Mcmurray,
  Lake Ketchum, Lake Goodwin, Camano, La Conner, Stimson Crossing,
  Big Lake, Weallup Lake, Smokey Point, John Sam Lake and Warm Beach.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just got in from busting drifts in the country. This is the kind of site I really don't care what I look like, let her buck!! Gotta like the 91' Twins coat!!!wind driven snow removed one of my contact

Hi, I'm new but I've been reading you guys for a long time (several years).  Just wanted to pop in and say everything is closed in my town: manufacturing plants, banks, restaurants, even the doctors o

I'm not sure I got to the 6.5 they said the airport had, but with it compacting it's possible. Was pretty nonetheless

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Serious winds coming ashore now in Strait of Juan de Fuca-

Data at: 0904 UTC 13 Jan 2021

CWQK 130800Z AUTO 27049G60KT 08/ RMK AO1 PRESRR PK WND 27063/0742 SLP972 T0078 53034


CWSP 130800Z AUTO 28046G53KT 08/05 RMK AO1 0PAST HR PRESRR 3034 PK WND 26064/0712 SLP972 P0004 T00820051 50014


CWLM 130800Z AUTO 26035G54KT 08/06 RMK AO1 8PAST HR PRESRR 3015 PK WND 27054/0758 SLP956 P0019 T00770062 50080


KNUW 130856Z 27042G56KT 6SM -RA SCT012 BKN028 OVC085 09/05 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 27056/0849 WSHFT 0806 SLP006 P0009 60013 T00890050 53057

Screenshot_2021-01-13 AWC - METeorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs).png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Still a wide range of differences within guidance. I'am riding the Euro hard like the last 2 events-- but here's your tax $$ at hard work. 06Z GFS- snku_acc.us_mw.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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OMA sounds like they are scrambling to catch up. for it's E CWA.  Yday they wrote it off.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
347 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Large scale pattern this morning consisting of a rather progressive
flow across the northern tier states with generous Pacific moisture
quickly streaming eastward in part to stout upper jet.

Tonight through Friday

Anticipated wintry weather remains on track over portions of the
region.

Pacific NW shortwave will drop through the northern Rockies this
morning before reaching the western Dakotas later tonight.
Impressive 500mb height falls of roughly 25-30dam will result in
strong deepening of the upper low show of as it dips into the
Dakotas. DPVA increase will induce synoptic scale lift and aid with
development of a mix of rain and snow over the western Dakotas this
afternoon. Precip activity is progged to increase in areal coverage
and expand southeastward and reach the northern CWA sometime toward
mid evening. Initial precip type will be rain as it reaches the
northern CWA. However, cold air advection late tonight should be
enough to support a rain/snow mix Thursday north of the I-80
corridor. Rain expected to be the dominate precip type then south of
I-80. Dynamic forcing associated with the upper low will mean precip
chances will continue Thursday night into Friday close to the
northeast NE/SD/IA borders. All this in part to strong vort max
energy riding down the backside of the exiting upper low. Given
track of 500mn HFC/dendritic omega, snow accumulations generally 1
to 3 inches will be found east of a line from Verdigre to about
Shenandoah IA.

Meanwhile a tight surface pressure gradient will induce northwest
wind gusts to generally range 35 to 45 mph. However portions of the
CWA could see gusts ranging from 50-60 mph. Because of this a High
Wind Watch will be in effect beginning late tonight through Thursday
evening for locations west of a line from Sioux City IA to Hebron.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX talking 6"+ in the North and "westward extent" of "robust"  snow. Hmmm.

National Weather Service Des Moines IA
343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Confidence: Medium

Complicated Storm to Affect the Region Thursday into Friday

Today will continue on with a quiet forecast and rather warm
temperatures. Though we continue warming aloft, cloud cover moving
in will temper highs a bit. We are already in the upper 20s to lower
30s and with a few more degrees lower by morning prior to warming
the remainder of the day, highs will recover to the upper 30s east
to the upper 40s southwest and south.

The main focus will be the system tracking southeast late tonight
into Friday, which will be the main challenge moving forward. A two
part wave is tracking toward the region with the first and southern-
most wave arriving into northwest Iowa by 08-10z Thursday. An area
of light rain/snow will develop and move over the region during the
morning and early afternoon hours with generally a mix of light rain
and snow with only minor accumulations through early afternoon.
Though colder air is moving in aloft, surface temperatures actually
warm up behind the boundary through the early afternoon. This will
allow highs to recover to the 30s to around 40. Winds will increase
during the day, especially northwest where gusts could approach 40
mph at times. During the afternoon, temperatures will begin to
fall northwest as the upper low begins to consolidate over
northeast Iowa. There is generally better consensus among the
models today as to the evolution of the system. The main concern
currently is the position of the low and eventual westward extent
of more robust snowfall from the system.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday/
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

Confidence: Medium

Despite the system originating in the Pacific Northwest where
usually less moisture is expected with any passing wave, this low
will be deepening for about 12 hours prior to filling Friday and
also slowing down from late tomorrow afternoon through Friday
afternoon. As the H500 low and system becomes more stacked, periods
of light snow will continue to spin up around the system from
Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. Overall, precipitation
amounts of 0.15 in the far south to up to 0.70 in the north are
anticipated for the entire event with about .25 to .50 qpf in the
form of snow from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. With
colder air aloft and snow ratios running about 13 to 14:1, we could
see amounts greater than 6 inches over portions of the north over
a 18 hour period. Though snowfall rates will not be a problem,
the persistent winds of 30 to nearly 40 mph will cause blowing
snow and reduced visibility in blowing snow across the north and
northwest, leading to some significant travel impacts. With some
uncertainty yet today, will most likely be looking at a possible
headline Thursday for the first round of precipitation and then a
more extended headline from the evening through a good share of
Friday. The area of worst impacts still needs to be nailed down.
Lows tomorrow night will fall into the 20s with highs Friday
recovering into the upper 20s to lower 30s. With the period of
greatest snowfall expected into Friday, the greatest travel
impacts will likely be the Friday morning and afternoon commutes
until the wind diminishes. The system is expected to fill by
Friday afternoon and along with that a gradual lessening of wind.
Lingering light snow will continue east into Friday evening with
quieter weather returning for Saturday.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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06Z Euro-- cut back for some. East shift may help E.IAimage.thumb.png.4e7a7a8216c7ae08972d843037baaf70.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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This winter sucks lol

Still snowing for most here.

NAMNGP_prec_kuchsnow_051.png

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Models really honing in on central MN.  And in general basically most of Minnesota getting hit pretty hard save for the NW 1/4 of the state and along the Canadian border.  Most models are spilling significant snows into central and western Iowa as well.  It seems I'll be just too far east and/or south for this one.  I'm still holding out hope for a wobble SE to get into the 2-4" band, but seems 1-2" is going to be more likely.  I'd just like to see some wrap around wind whipped snow squalls.  That would be fun.  

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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RDPS totals are overdone, but even 75% of those is impressive.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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How often do you see a sub 29.00 altimeter in Alberta in JAN?image.thumb.png.08548f241e6c7d2b26353abf44871ac6.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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How often to you  see TCU being reported in Calgary - in the middle of JAN?

image.thumb.png.e90609492a06e9a798f451b4bd23a057.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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12z GFS- that trowal feature is on this run of GFS- right along I-35 or just W. Wherever it sets up is going to be $$-

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Another 1-2 incher oh boy!

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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23 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

12z GFS- that trowal feature is on this run of GFS- right along I-35 or just W. Wherever it sets up is going to be $$-

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Yeah that trowel is going to provide some nice totals wherever it sets up. Might be the difference between 4" and 8"+.

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I don't mind missing out on this one.  My area has already been pretty fortunate this winter.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GDPS... overdone, but nice for some

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Madtown said:

Just awful for here....I cannot believe the damage done by covid and now lack of snow to the businesses up here...just sad

Where are you located?  I assumed Madtown meant Madison, but based on your posts, that doesn't seem to be where you live.  

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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FGF is more confident than I am.

Quote

A low pressure system approaches the southern portions of Manitoba
during the day on Wednesday, with a cold front draped across the
Northern Plains. Temperatures ahead of the cold front remain well
above freezing in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast
area. Moisture is higher along the frontal structure, with strong
pressure gradients behind. With warmer temperatures chances for rain
increase ahead of the front, with the possibility of light freezing
rain as the front passes. There is the possibility of light ice
accumulations, but remains a low possibility as the quick passage of
the front and precipitation won`t allot for the surface to cool fast
enough for the surface to collect the freezing rain. Soundings
indicate the potential, but for it to be brief if any freezing rain
does occur. The transition over to all snow looks to be quick during
the early morning on Thursday.

Ensembles have grown more confidence in the presence of a dry slot
behind the frontal passage through the morning hours on Thursday as
the system trudges eastward. After the dry slow is when ensembles
start to vary between different models. Models have clustered around
two segments where we see a low amount of snow potential and a
higher snowfall potential greater than 4 inches. Confidence is
higher when looking at the timing of winds across the forecast area.
Winds look to be weaker after the frontal passage, with lower lapse
rates and momentum transfer. That changes during Thursday night into
Friday with the likelihood we see 35-40kt gusts at times. Around
this time is also when ensembles have continued to struggle with
precipitation redeveloping behind the low pressure system. Cold air
advection prevails across a majority of North Dakota, with lingering
moisture. Snow looks to develop during the afternoon hours Thursday
and linger through Friday. How much snow develops will be dependent
on if a strong deformation zone forms closer to our area.

The latest trends with most ensembles favor this deformation zone
remaining further southeast and quickly transitioning towards
central and eastern MN limiting potential snow amounts. Snow showers
are still possible within the region of CAA and positive vorticity
advection over our CWA and these could still result in lesser but
localized impacts. At this time east of the valley looks to see the
highest probability of 4 or more inches, while areas west of the
valley has a lower probability near 10% to 30%. Along with the snow
the stronger winds begin to increase in the evening and overnight
Thursday through Friday producing brief period of lower visibility
across the valley and points west. The strongest winds looks to be
concentrated west of the valley where new snow will be required for
any blowing snow impacts. Conditions begin to clear out by Friday
night as the system moves further to the east.

 

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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^- Yeah I don't think it matters much. Your locked and loaded.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

MPX doesn't need the Euro's 12z run to confirm.  They've pull the trigger on a Winter Storm Watch for 6-9". Blizzard conditions possible to the south and west.

You guys have had a pretty good snow season even with the lack of sustained cold.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Where are you located?  I assumed Madtown meant Madison, but based on your posts, that doesn't seem to be where you live.  

Used to be. now manitowish waters wi

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7 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

You guys have had a pretty good snow season even with the lack of sustained cold.

31" season to date, with about half of that falling during 2 storms in Oct and Nov. It's been a strange but good season so far.  We're actually about 5" above normal as of today. 

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6 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Used to be. now manitowish waters wi

I had no idea you were way up there.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

UKIE throws me a major bone.  But this is an extreme easterly outlier and has flip flopped dramatically from run to run.

Last night it trended strongly toward the other models, now it goes right back to where it was.  I'd have to see other models show this before I buy it.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Trying to pinpoint any winter event is tough enough. When a "L" gets vertically stacked and basically cut off from the upper level winds is near impossible. This will come down to now forecasting with radar. Trowals esp.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro a bit of an  improvement in eastern Iowa this run.  2" would be ok with me.  I'd rather get it up to 3", but either way the Euro is showing some wrap around snow showers, which will make it feel very wintry around here on Friday.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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The euro just added a good band of snow for northern IL into southern WI on the front end of the system.  That was not there at all last run.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I wonder if DMX will pull the trigger on headlines with the afternoon package.

My guess is watches (maybe) N of HWY 20 along both sides of I-35. Advisories further S - but those will be issued AM shift tomorrow

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The euro just added a good band of snow for northern IL into southern WI on the front end of the system.  That was not there at all last run.

The UKIE sorta had a similar set up but was warmer over here compared to the euro.  I hope this is a trend for my back yard.

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The extreme warmth ahead of this system is surreal when you think it's mid JAN. It's amazing there is enough cold air to even snow. Who knows- it may not. Pacific moisture getting over the Rockies is always subject without deep cold to advect in. I'am  not sold on any snow models put out here in C.IA.- until this warm air is advected out. 850 will be cold enough but concerned about 2m temps being cold enough. Good thing it's mid winter otherwise this would for sure be a rainer.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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30 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I wonder if DMX will pull the trigger on headlines with the afternoon package.

I'd be quite surprised if they did it this afternoon already. Possible, but more probable in morning package I feel.

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Euro is worlds different from the GFS at 240. GFS is cold for most Canada, Dakotas/Montana/MN, Euro is just the northeast US and eastern Canada. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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