Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System

[Stacsh 779]

40 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Euro is worlds different from the GFS at 240. GFS is cold for most Canada, Dakotas/Montana/MN, Euro is just the northeast US and eastern Canada. 

Considering the GFS has failed over 7 days out time and time again, I'd side with the Euro.  

[Hawkeye 3825]

18z HRRR... I'd be happy with a couple inches.

[Stacsh 779]

Just now, Stacsh said:

Considering the GFS has failed over 7 days out time and time again, I'd side with the Euro.  

oops just noted wrong thread lol

[james1976 3677]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

18z HRRR... I'd be happy with a couple inches.

Dang and that's only through noon Friday 

[Grizzcoat 2865]

5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Dang and that's only through noon Friday 

and it's just playing catch up with the backwash. Expect increasing totals as it gets closer.

[St Paul Storm 3936]

I-35 special through hour 45 on the 18z NAM.  

[snowstorm83 1253]

18z NAM gives SE Neb a little love. Nothing to write home about but would be interesting with the wind. 

[Beltrami Island 353]

Oh NAM, put me in the bulls eye for extreme northern minnesota....fool me once shame on you, fool me once twice many times, shame on me.  I really want to believe, but I just can't do it.  

[james1976 3677]

La Crosse just issued advisories

[james1976 3677]

Nebraska gets their weekly high wind warning

[Bellona 94]

11 minutes ago, james1976 said:

La Crosse just issued advisories

I think advisory instead of watch because of the duration. Always could upgrade. I still expect dsm to issue a watch for someone. Along and north of 20 probabaly.

[Grizzcoat 2865]

18z RDPS-

[Grizzcoat 2865]

18Z 3km NAM-

[james1976 3677]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

18z RDPS-

In my dreams 

[Bellona 94]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

18z RDPS-

Yes please!! Rdps for the win; but probabaly not.

[bud2380 3013]

DVN issued a map.  1-2" from north of Iowa City.  Basically north of I80.  Less than an inch to the south and east. 

[bud2380 3013]

SREF plumes for CR average about 4"

 

[Grizzcoat 2865]

18Z GFS again with trowal right down I-35.

[jcwxguy 1255]

Mby

[quote]Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

330 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

 

...Blizzard conditions possible Thurday night into Friday

morning...

 

.A strong low pressure system will move through the area tonight

and into the weekend. The comibination of strong winds and minor

snowfall accumulation may result in blizzard conditions.

 

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ012-015-018-032>034-044-045-140530-

/O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0001.210115T0600Z-210115T1800Z/

Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Cedar-Thurston-Wayne-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-

Dodge-Washington-

Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley,

Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Hartington, Laurel, Randolph,

Coleridge, Pender, Macy, Walthill, Winnebago, Wayne, Stanton,

West Point, Wisner, Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Fremont,

and Blair

330 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations

  of 1 to 3 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Nebraska and

  southwest and west central Iowa.

 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with low visiblities.

  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

[/Quote]

[bud2380 3013]

DVN issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Hwy 30 on north. 

[FAR_Weather 4902]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z GFS again with trowal right down I-35.

LOVE IT.

[Hawkeye 3825]

00z HRRR much different than the 18z.... farther west and much wetter.

[Hawkeye 3825]

The 00z NAM is in line with other models.  The 00z 3k NAM expands the heavy snow farther east... great for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.  Again, I'd have to see other models trend toward this before I buy it.

[bud2380 3013]

3k NAM is outstanding.  It doesn't show much (if any) lull between the frontal passage snow tomorrow and the stacked low Friday.  Just kind of runs together.  DVN talked about a lull between events.  

[bud2380 3013]

3k NAM seems to be on an island all by itself though.  What a strange looking storm.  Such impressive totals for a stacked low, wrap around system.  We just don't see those in Iowa often.  I'd love to find a way to get on the eastern edge at least and get a few inches.  

[bud2380 3013]

Anyone have the 18z Euro?

[Hawkeye 3825]

9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

3k NAM seems to be on an island all by itself though.  What a strange looking storm.  Such impressive totals for a stacked low, wrap around system.  We just don't see those in Iowa often.  I'd love to find a way to get on the eastern edge at least and get a few inches.  

Yes, this is quite a unique system for our region.

[bud2380 3013]

RDPS very similar to the 3k NAM

[St Paul Storm 3936]

MPX just delayed the start of the Watch by 6 hours due to less mixed precipitation/freezing rain at the onset. 5-9" in the point.

[FAR_Weather 4902]

Rain in January in Fargo is climatologically impossible.

2021: "Hold my beer".

[bud2380 3013]

I wouldn't have any complaints with this.

 

[Hawkeye 3825]

The last three runs of the RDPS, for Cedar Rapids, have gone from 1" to 5" to 7".  I like the trend.

[Hawkeye 3825]

The GFS hasn't changed a bit.

[Hawkeye 3825]

00z parallel GFS has improved somewhat

[Grizzcoat 2865]

Someone asked- ,18z Euro 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye 3825]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

Someone asked- ,18z Euro 

Clearly, the Euro is not buying a farther east expansion of the snow band.

[Grizzcoat 2865]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

Clearly, the Euro is not buying a farther east expansion of the snow band.

But it's old data compared to 00z stuff. 

[bud2380 3013]

GDPS is in line with the NAM and GFS

[Hawkeye 3825]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GDPS is in line with the NAM and GFS

[jaster220 8029]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

Interesting, the 12z GEFS showing more widespread snowfall...

 

Any legitimacy to that tho or is it a fluke "eye candy" run? I see that's all the way til next week as well. What is it doing differently that causes this result? Thx

[Hawkeye 3825]

UK is back west a bit.

[james1976 3677]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS hasn't changed a bit.

The heavier snow area is a bit wider compared to previous run if im not mistaken. 

[Hawkeye 3825]

Whoa, big change from the Euro... great for CR/IC.  The strong upper low spins up farther southeast, which allows heavy snow to focus here.

[Grizzcoat 2865]

Euro Kuchera-

[Hawkeye 3825]

The period from 00z-06z, Thursday evening, is the key period on the Euro.  It fires heavy snow over CR/IC then.  If that does not happen, as other models show, we will get much less.

[jaster220 8029]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The period from 00z-06z, Thursday evening, is the key period on the Euro.  It fires heavy snow over CR/IC then.  If that does not happen, as other models show, we will get much less.

Love me some January sprinkles

[Grizzcoat 2865]

The Euro might be on to something  for you guys in E.IA. Long range RAP is also showing something similar.

[OmahaSnowFan 936]

[Hawkeye 3825]

The HRRR continues to be nothing like the Euro.  It develops the surface low well north of the Euro and pulls a massive dry slot up over eastern Iowa.  I'm thinking this will play out closer to the HRRR than the Euro.

[Grizzcoat 2865]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR continues to be nothing like the Euro.  It develops the surface low well north of the Euro and pulls a massive dry slot up over eastern Iowa.

Give it some time to adjust. I have no clue why they extended the HRRR- maybe just to see potential precip but as far as QPF, I don't trust it outside 10 hours.