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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


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40 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Euro is worlds different from the GFS at 240. GFS is cold for most Canada, Dakotas/Montana/MN, Euro is just the northeast US and eastern Canada. 

Considering the GFS has failed over 7 days out time and time again, I'd side with the Euro.  

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Just got in from busting drifts in the country. This is the kind of site I really don't care what I look like, let her buck!! Gotta like the 91' Twins coat!!!wind driven snow removed one of my contact

Hi, I'm new but I've been reading you guys for a long time (several years).  Just wanted to pop in and say everything is closed in my town: manufacturing plants, banks, restaurants, even the doctors o

I'm not sure I got to the 6.5 they said the airport had, but with it compacting it's possible. Was pretty nonetheless

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18z HRRR... I'd be happy with a couple inches.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Dang and that's only through noon Friday 

and it's just playing catch up with the backwash. Expect increasing totals as it gets closer.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Mby

[quote]Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

330 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

 

...Blizzard conditions possible Thurday night into Friday

morning...

 

.A strong low pressure system will move through the area tonight

and into the weekend. The comibination of strong winds and minor

snowfall accumulation may result in blizzard conditions.

 

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ012-015-018-032>034-044-045-140530-

/O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0001.210115T0600Z-210115T1800Z/

Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Cedar-Thurston-Wayne-Stanton-Cuming-Burt-

Dodge-Washington-

Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley,

Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Hartington, Laurel, Randolph,

Coleridge, Pender, Macy, Walthill, Winnebago, Wayne, Stanton,

West Point, Wisner, Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Fremont,

and Blair

330 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

FRIDAY MORNING...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations

  of 1 to 3 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Nebraska and

  southwest and west central Iowa.

 

* WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday morning.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions with low visiblities.

  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

[/Quote]

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

18Z GFS again with trowal right down I-35.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

LOVE IT.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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00z HRRR much different than the 18z.... farther west and much wetter.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 00z NAM is in line with other models.  The 00z 3k NAM expands the heavy snow farther east... great for the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.  Again, I'd have to see other models trend toward this before I buy it.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3k NAM seems to be on an island all by itself though.  What a strange looking storm.  Such impressive totals for a stacked low, wrap around system.  We just don't see those in Iowa often.  I'd love to find a way to get on the eastern edge at least and get a few inches.  

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9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

3k NAM seems to be on an island all by itself though.  What a strange looking storm.  Such impressive totals for a stacked low, wrap around system.  We just don't see those in Iowa often.  I'd love to find a way to get on the eastern edge at least and get a few inches.  

Yes, this is quite a unique system for our region.

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Rain in January in Fargo is climatologically impossible.

2021: "Hold my beer".

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 16.3"            Coldest Low: -9*F (12/24)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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The last three runs of the RDPS, for Cedar Rapids, have gone from 1" to 5" to 7".  I like the trend.

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z parallel GFS has improved somewhat

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, Grizzcoat said:

Someone asked- ,18z Euro 

Clearly, the Euro is not buying a farther east expansion of the snow band.

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

Clearly, the Euro is not buying a farther east expansion of the snow band.

But it's old data compared to 00z stuff. 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GDPS is in line with the NAM and GFS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

Interesting, the 12z GEFS showing more widespread snowfall...

132

 

138

Any legitimacy to that tho or is it a fluke "eye candy" run? I see that's all the way til next week as well. What is it doing differently that causes this result? Thx

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Whoa, big change from the Euro... great for CR/IC.  The strong upper low spins up farther southeast, which allows heavy snow to focus here.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The period from 00z-06z, Thursday evening, is the key period on the Euro.  It fires heavy snow over CR/IC then.  If that does not happen, as other models show, we will get much less.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The period from 00z-06z, Thursday evening, is the key period on the Euro.  It fires heavy snow over CR/IC then.  If that does not happen, as other models show, we will get much less.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

Love me some January sprinkles

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 7.5"  Largest Storm: 1.5" (12/29 & 1/3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 2.4 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The HRRR continues to be nothing like the Euro.  It develops the surface low well north of the Euro and pulls a massive dry slot up over eastern Iowa.  I'm thinking this will play out closer to the HRRR than the Euro.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The HRRR continues to be nothing like the Euro.  It develops the surface low well north of the Euro and pulls a massive dry slot up over eastern Iowa.

Give it some time to adjust. I have no clue why they extended the HRRR- maybe just to see potential precip but as far as QPF, I don't trust it outside 10 hours.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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