Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 08:33 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 08:33 AM DMX out with some new graphics- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 08:38 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 08:38 AM 3KM NAM- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 15534 Posted Thursday at 08:53 AM Author Report Share Posted Thursday at 08:53 AM 4 hours ago, jaster220 said: Any legitimacy to that tho or is it a fluke "eye candy" run? I see that's all the way til next week as well. What is it doing differently that causes this result? Thx I posted the map through Mon bc there is another piece of energy that rotates across the lower lakes region and it includes that wave as well. 00z GEFS still holding onto that idea... 00z Euro...take what we can get from this system at this point...not expecting much for the 1st half of this storm over here. IA/MN peeps are in for a treat from what I'm seeing. Very rare stacked ULL in the low 990's that spins for over 24 hours is quite a storm to track in our region. I like some of the features the models are showing as the ULL tracks S of the area producing convective looking snow showers/squalls. 2 1 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 09:14 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 09:14 AM Blizzard warnings up for NE SD. I hope it's a trend.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 250 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-141800- /O.UPG.KABR.WS.A.0001.210114T1800Z-210116T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KABR.BZ.W.0001.210114T1800Z-210116T0000Z/ Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant- Hamlin-Deuel- Including the cities of Wheaton, Ortonville, Britton, Sisseton, Webster, Clark, Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, and Clear Lake 250 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. In Minnesota, the latest road conditions can be obtained at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1. In South Dakota, the latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Parkin 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 09:31 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 09:31 AM I think a trend has started - Blizzard Warning for NW MO!!!! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 322 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...Blizzard Conditions Expected Late Tonight in Northwest Missouri... MOZ001>005-011-012-141800- /O.NEW.KEAX.BZ.W.0001.210115T0600Z-210116T0000Z/ Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Holt-Andrew- Including the cities of Tarkio, Rockport, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Mound City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah, and Country Club Villa 322 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Missouri. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may decrease quickly between bursts of snowfall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 09:35 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 09:35 AM DMX hosting blizzard warnings as well as FSD. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 09:59 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 09:59 AM GFS not backing down. Crazy how consistent it's been/ 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 10:12 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 10:12 AM Sweetness is 5-9" and the BIG B. 5 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 15534 Posted Thursday at 10:15 AM Author Report Share Posted Thursday at 10:15 AM @Grizzcoat, this system is turning into "Beast Mode"...IA snow magnet in full effect...who was it that predicted this system to be a Blizzard??? Haha, J/K...wish it coulda shared some over this way but I'll take my scraps for the 2nd part of the storm. 00z EPS...looking good for a lot of folks and even down into MO! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DSM WeatherNut 65 Posted Thursday at 10:30 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 10:30 AM DMX Xgames Mode Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Des Moines IA 404 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...Blizzard Conditions Western into Central Iowa Tonight into Friday with Significant Travel Impacts Expected... .The first of two waves of wintry precipitation is moving into the state this morning with some limited impacts this morning. There will be a short dry period later this morning into a part of this afternoon before the second wave of precipitation moves into the state. Snow accompanied by strong winds will create blizzard conditions over western Iowa and toward the I-35 corridor tonight into Friday. Significant travel impacts with near impossible travel at times later tonight into Friday is expected. Snow will end Friday night, but travel impacts will linger. IAZ060-073-141815- /O.NEW.KDMX.WS.W.0001.210115T0600Z-210116T0000Z/ Polk-Warren- Including the cities of Des Moines, Indianola, Norwalk, and Carlisle 404 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected with total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Central Iowa. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult if not impossible at times with blowing snow significantly reducing visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening commutes. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 10:59 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 10:59 AM On 1/12/2021 at 1:09 AM, Grizzcoat said: Would not be surprised if FSD or even DMX or MSP mentions the potential of the "B" word for NW IA, SW MN and vicinity with these kinds of winds- and these are likely underdone. Couldn't get the entire screen to fit, but these are in KT. This may also give DLH a rare lake effect event but the delta "T" s are not that impressive. #TOM- you mean this post?? Yah- I called it!!! :O) 1 1 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 11:13 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 11:13 AM Rapid City has been gusting 79mph for past several hours. Not just a one a done gust- this is truly synoptic. KRAP 141052Z AUTO 32049G63KT 10SM SCT100 02/M12 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/1027 SLP128 T00171122 KRAP 140952Z AUTO 32039G65KT 10SM FEW060 SCT075 SCT090 02/M11 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 32067/0916 SLP122 T00171111 KRAP 140852Z AUTO 32034G62KT 10SM OVC060 02/M10 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/0836 SLP120 T00221100 53026 KRAP 140752Z AUTO 31042G63KT 10SM CLR 03/M14 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND 30063/0745 SLP104 T00281144 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 15534 Posted Thursday at 11:16 AM Author Report Share Posted Thursday at 11:16 AM 17 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: #TOM- you mean this post?? Yah- I called it!!! :O) Ya buddy! Good call... For reference, it was this post I made back in late Dec...I'm looking forward to the next storm a week from Fri/Sat that's showing up. Man, I'm really digging the LR pattern...it's loaded with opportunities. I'm going to rest for a couple hours and catch some Zzzz's but later on I'll share some LR thoughts and what the models are showing. Fun times. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DSM WeatherNut 65 Posted Thursday at 11:20 AM Report Share Posted Thursday at 11:20 AM I agree. This was called out almost two weeks ago to the day. I was just looking for text I sent to people that said we could be in for an interesting one around the 15th. Thanks for the heads up on LR. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 12:22 PM 06Z Euro still has that heavy snow over E.IA NW IL, But the RAP at the sametime- way different. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 12:28 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 12:28 PM 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 3619 Posted Thursday at 12:48 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 12:48 PM 6z Euro. For mby an inch or so of snow but will feel wintery with a 40mph wind. 4 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 3825 Posted Thursday at 01:10 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:10 PM The op Euro is still an outlier. The 00z 3k NAM had something similar, but the 06z did a major reversal back west. The 12z HRRR is not looking much better than previous runs. I'm going with 1-3" for my area. Quote season snowfall: 20.3" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 01:20 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:20 PM 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The op Euro is still an outlier. The 00z 3k NAM had something similar, but the 06z did a major reversal back west. The 12z HRRR is not looking much better than previous runs. I'm going with 1-3" for my area. I think your good for 4". Sharp cutoff though. W side may see 5". Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 3825 Posted Thursday at 01:28 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:28 PM James won't like the 12z HRRR one bit. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 20.3" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
tStacsh 19 Posted Thursday at 01:36 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:36 PM Almost nothing for Michigan. Big sad. Again. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3013 Posted Thursday at 01:45 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:45 PM The HRRR is trending closer to the Euro in eastern Iowa. It just shows very low snow ratios on Kuchera. I really am not sure what to think, but it certainly looks like we will miss out on the wrap around snows, or most of it anyways. So we're talking mostly front end of the system and I don't see that accumulating several inches. So I'm more in the 1-3" camp myself. I suppose we could get lucky and squeak out 4. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 01:54 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:54 PM I think thats bright banding on the OMX radar. If so- it bodes well. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 885 Posted Thursday at 01:56 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:56 PM WSW and HWW but no blizzard warning... I'm lost. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 3936 Posted Thursday at 01:59 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 01:59 PM nice band sitting overhead helping to saturate the column. Nothing reaching the ground yet, but if the colder air catches up soon it would give more confidence in reaching the forecasted amounts. This is going to be fun to watch today. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3677 Posted Thursday at 02:00 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:00 PM Really loving the trends. This thing has overall come a bit SE. I'm on the west edge of the advisory. Just 2 counties to my west is the blizzard warning. Come east a bit more! DMX mentioned how rare of a track this type of system is taking. Another legit blizzard for the midwest?! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 3825 Posted Thursday at 02:11 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:11 PM 12k NAM is much better with snow expansion into eastern Iowa, but the 3k NAM, which was equal to the Euro at 00z, has reversed even farther and is one of the lighter models now for my area. With the 3k NAM going backward, I'm definitely not buying the bigger totals around here now. I feel good about 1-3". Quote season snowfall: 20.3" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 892 Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:21 PM About to go into severe depression up here...this is almost comical 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 3936 Posted Thursday at 02:28 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:28 PM A few pingers now hitting the deck. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3677 Posted Thursday at 02:30 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:30 PM Freezing rain here! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 15534 Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM Author Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:33 PM This lil beast is going to look like a "mini cane" on radar...incredible dynamics with this storm...it's going to sit and spin over E IA for like 20 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an intense snow band right near the SLP similar to an eye wall. Wild stuff! 4 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 3936 Posted Thursday at 02:50 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:50 PM Already flipped to all snow and accumulating. This was supposed to stay a mix until early afternoon. 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stormhunter87 885 Posted Thursday at 02:58 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 02:58 PM Got a couple of flakes mixing in. I still don't understand OAX. All the stuff is there for a blizzard warning but nope just going to give you all the other watches and warnings. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
whatitdo 97 Posted Thursday at 03:04 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:04 PM 31 minutes ago, Tom said: This lil beast is going to look like a "mini cane" on radar...incredible dynamics with this storm...it's going to sit and spin over E IA for like 20 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if we see an intense snow band right near the SLP similar to an eye wall. Wild stuff! wow what a winter to remember for the iowa/minnesota peeps in the sub! System looking awesome 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3677 Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:39 PM DMX just updated! Edged the blizzard warning a row of counties eastward. Its the county just to my west now. Come on baby 4 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3013 Posted Thursday at 03:42 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:42 PM GFS just went full Euro in Eastern Iowa. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stormgeek 214 Posted Thursday at 03:44 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:44 PM Looks like there is a pretty nasty dry slot and possibly some rain sprinkles about to move in from the south. Pretty awesome we already got column saturated and snowing here and it is only 10 AM! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3013 Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:45 PM New GFS coming in similar as well. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3677 Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:52 PM Diggin the trends! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3013 Posted Thursday at 03:53 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:53 PM The GFS shows rapid intensification between noon and 6pm in eastern Iowa today. Almost all of the snow for CR and IC falls between 3pm and midnight. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 3825 Posted Thursday at 03:56 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:56 PM RDPS is going backward again like the 3k NAM. Quote season snowfall: 20.3" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 03:59 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 03:59 PM There is still many pieces to the puzzle of this storm that are still unknown. Right now- I would hedge away from mid range models such as GFS,CMC even RDPS and focus on NAM - 3KM nam but MAINLY on HRRR and RAP (amounts in the 10 hr range) and precip location in the longer range. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:04 PM And as I previously mentioned in prior storm thread- I'll take the RAP over HRRR- especially for amounts. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
BMT 249 Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:22 PM 18 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: And as I previously mentioned in prior storm thread- I'll take the RAP over HRRR- especially for amounts. For Mby sake I hope the Rap is wrong this go around. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3677 Posted Thursday at 04:24 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:24 PM Whats the latest RAP look like? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bellona 94 Posted Thursday at 04:28 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:28 PM 48 minutes ago, james1976 said: DMX just updated! Edged the blizzard warning a row of counties eastward. Its the county just to my west now. Come on baby One more county for you and two for me. Keep pushing east!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mlgamer 371 Posted Thursday at 04:29 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:29 PM TOP AFD discussed Blizzard Warnings could be issued for east of Seneca to Lawrence line in northeast Kansas if 12z model trends support it. I may end up with flurries...but the HRRR has been most generous to me so I am rooting for it...lol 2 Quote 20-21 snowfalls >= 3": Jan 1: 4.5" Season total: 5.1" 19-20 snowfalls >= 3": Dec 15/16: 4.5" Season total: 11.7" Seasonal normal: 17.8" (All are official NWS amts) Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 2865 Posted Thursday at 04:30 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:30 PM 6 minutes ago, james1976 said: Whats the latest RAP look like? 1 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3677 Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM 2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Yikes 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stormgeek 214 Posted Thursday at 04:35 PM Report Share Posted Thursday at 04:35 PM Well, that dry slot looking thing filled in with all snow and flake size is decent! You can tell just by looking at it, that it is going to be concrete type snow. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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