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Jan 14th-16th Upper MW/GL's Storm System


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Just got in from busting drifts in the country. This is the kind of site I really don't care what I look like, let her buck!! Gotta like the 91' Twins coat!!!wind driven snow removed one of my contact

Hi, I'm new but I've been reading you guys for a long time (several years).  Just wanted to pop in and say everything is closed in my town: manufacturing plants, banks, restaurants, even the doctors o

I'm not sure I got to the 6.5 they said the airport had, but with it compacting it's possible. Was pretty nonetheless

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Any legitimacy to that tho or is it a fluke "eye candy" run? I see that's all the way til next week as well. What is it doing differently that causes this result? Thx

I posted the map through Mon bc there is another piece of energy that rotates across the lower lakes region and it includes that wave as well.  

00z GEFS still holding onto that idea...

120

 

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00z Euro...take what we can get from this system at this point...not expecting much for the 1st half of this storm over here.  IA/MN peeps are in for a treat from what I'm seeing.  Very rare stacked ULL in the low 990's that spins for over 24 hours is quite a storm to track in our region.  I like some of the features the models are showing as the ULL tracks S of the area producing convective looking snow showers/squalls.

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wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png

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Blizzard warnings up for NE SD. I hope it's a trend....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-141800-
/O.UPG.KABR.WS.A.0001.210114T1800Z-210116T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KABR.BZ.W.0001.210114T1800Z-210116T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-
Including the cities of Wheaton, Ortonville, Britton, Sisseton,
Webster, Clark, Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, and Clear Lake
250 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon today to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

In Minnesota, the latest road conditions can be obtained at
511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1. In South Dakota, the latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Parkin
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I think a trend has started - Blizzard Warning for NW MO!!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
322 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

...Blizzard Conditions Expected Late Tonight in Northwest Missouri...

MOZ001>005-011-012-141800-
/O.NEW.KEAX.BZ.W.0001.210115T0600Z-210116T0000Z/
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Holt-Andrew-
Including the cities of Tarkio, Rockport, Fairfax, Maryville,
Grant City, Albany, Stanberry, King City, Bethany, Mound City,
Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, Craig, Savannah,
and Country Club Villa
322 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Missouri.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Visibilities may decrease quickly between
  bursts of snowfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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@Grizzcoat, this system is turning into "Beast Mode"...IA snow magnet in full effect...who was it that predicted this system to be a Blizzard???  Haha, J/K...wish it coulda shared some over this way but I'll take my scraps for the 2nd part of the storm.

 

00z EPS...looking good for a lot of folks and even down into MO!

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DMX   Xgames Mode

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
404 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

...Blizzard Conditions Western into Central Iowa Tonight into
Friday with Significant Travel Impacts Expected...

.The first of two waves of wintry precipitation is moving into the
state this morning with some limited impacts this morning. There
will be a short dry period later this morning into a part of this
afternoon before the second wave of precipitation moves into the
state. Snow accompanied by strong winds will create blizzard
conditions over western Iowa and toward the I-35 corridor tonight
into Friday. Significant travel impacts with near impossible
travel at times later tonight into Friday is expected. Snow will
end Friday night, but travel impacts will linger.

IAZ060-073-141815-
/O.NEW.KDMX.WS.W.0001.210115T0600Z-210116T0000Z/
Polk-Warren-
Including the cities of Des Moines, Indianola, Norwalk,
and Carlisle
404 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected with total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches and winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Central Iowa.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult if not impossible at
  times with blowing snow significantly reducing visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and evening
  commutes.
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On 1/12/2021 at 1:09 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Would not be surprised if  FSD or even DMX or MSP mentions the potential of the "B" word for NW IA, SW MN and vicinity with these kinds of winds- and these are likely underdone. Couldn't get the entire screen to fit, but these are in KT. This may also give DLH a rare lake effect event but the delta "T" s are not that impressive.image.thumb.png.d0567c49fcc243f01859c3672fdd4f44.png

#TOM- you mean this post??  Yah- I called it!!! :O)

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Rapid City has been gusting 79mph for past several hours. Not just a one a done gust- this is truly synoptic.

KRAP 141052Z AUTO 32049G63KT 10SM SCT100 02/M12 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/1027 SLP128 T00171122
KRAP 140952Z AUTO 32039G65KT 10SM FEW060 SCT075 SCT090 02/M11 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 32067/0916 SLP122 T00171111
KRAP 140852Z AUTO 32034G62KT 10SM OVC060 02/M10 A2985 RMK AO2 PK WND 32069/0836 SLP120 T00221100 53026
KRAP 140752Z AUTO 31042G63KT 10SM CLR 03/M14 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND 30063/0745 SLP104 T00281144

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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17 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

#TOM- you mean this post??  Yah- I called it!!! :O)

Ya buddy!  Good call...

For reference, it was this post I made back in late Dec...I'm looking forward to the next storm a week from Fri/Sat that's showing up.  Man, I'm really digging the LR pattern...it's loaded with opportunities.  I'm going to rest for a couple hours and catch some Zzzz's but later on I'll share some LR thoughts and what the models are showing.  Fun times.

 

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The op Euro is still an outlier.  The 00z 3k NAM had something similar, but the 06z did a major reversal back west.  The 12z HRRR is not looking much better than previous runs.
 

I'm going with 1-3" for my area.

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The op Euro is still an outlier.  The 00z 3k NAM had something similar, but the 06z did a major reversal back west.  The 12z HRRR is not looking much better than previous runs.
 

I'm going with 1-3" for my area.

I think your good for 4". Sharp cutoff though. W side may see 5".

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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James won't like the 12z HRRR one bit.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The HRRR is trending closer to the Euro in eastern Iowa.  It just shows very low snow ratios on Kuchera.  I really am not sure what to think, but it certainly looks like we will miss out on the wrap around snows, or most of it anyways.  So we're talking mostly front end of the system and I don't see that accumulating several inches.  So I'm more in the 1-3" camp myself.  I suppose we could get lucky and squeak out 4. 

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Really loving the trends. This thing has overall come a bit SE. I'm on the west edge of the advisory. Just 2 counties to my west is the blizzard warning. Come east a bit more!

DMX mentioned how rare of a track this type of system is taking.

Another legit blizzard for the midwest?!

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12k NAM is much better with snow expansion into eastern Iowa, but the 3k NAM, which was equal to the Euro at 00z, has reversed even farther and is one of the lighter models now for my area.

With the 3k NAM going backward, I'm definitely not buying the bigger totals around here now.  I feel good about 1-3".

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This lil beast is going to look like a "mini cane" on radar...incredible dynamics with this storm...it's going to sit and spin over E IA for like 20 hours.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see an intense snow band right near the SLP similar to an eye wall.  Wild stuff!

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31 minutes ago, Tom said:

This lil beast is going to look like a "mini cane" on radar...incredible dynamics with this storm...it's going to sit and spin over E IA for like 20 hours.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see an intense snow band right near the SLP similar to an eye wall.  Wild stuff!

wow what a winter to remember for the iowa/minnesota peeps in the sub! System looking awesome

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RDPS is going backward again like the 3k NAM.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 20.3"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is still many pieces to the puzzle of this storm that are still unknown. Right now- I would hedge away from mid range models such as GFS,CMC even RDPS and focus on NAM - 3KM nam but MAINLY on HRRR and RAP (amounts in the 10 hr range) and precip location in the longer range.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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TOP AFD discussed Blizzard Warnings could be issued for east of Seneca to Lawrence line in northeast Kansas if 12z model trends support it.  I may end up with flurries...but the HRRR has been most generous to me so I am rooting for it...lol

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >= 3":  Jan 1: 4.5"             Season total: 5.1"
  • 19-20 snowfalls >= 3":  Dec 15/16: 4.5"      Season total: 11.7"
  • Seasonal normal: 17.8" (All are official NWS amts)
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