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November 15-17th Snow Prospects


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The models have a couple waves during this time period and it looks like enough snow will fall to cover the grass in many areas from Nebraska to Michigan. 

 

Enough snow for advisories maybe?

 

The EURO's take on it right now at least. GGEM and GFS further south.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like this system hits Cali/Oregon around 12z Thursday and then looses its steam as it heads into the Rockies, but then redevelops on the lee wards side of the Rockies.  Lot's of potential here.  The 12z Euro ensembles are coming in and they are showing some very healthy widespread 3-6" snows in the Plains.

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Tom, that trajectory is usually a good direction for those of us in Nebraska and Kansas to get a healthy amount of snow.  If it then curves up towards you guys that would make many on the board happy.  Still very little talk locally about this potential snow.  Just the token snow shower, little accumulation idea.  Will see if they start discusses this as the days go by.  My wife and daughter have to go to a baby shower in Lincoln on Saturday and stay overnight until Sunday.  Lincoln is 2 hours east of us.  I have already told them the plan is they won't go if the weather goes downhill.  They know I get most of my information from this site and the travel decision will be with safety first.

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THE OVERALL WX PATTERN STILL SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A ROUND OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AS WRN RIDGE SHARPENS AND PULLS THE ERN TROF WWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS/WRN GREAT LAKES RGN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DONE A BETTER JOB PICKING UP ON THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO YDA. THEY HAVE THE BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUSED ON SAT NGT. IN REALITY...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR THE CHGS TO OCCUR SO EVENT MAY END UP FOCUSED MORE ON SUNDAY. IN ANY CASE...THIS SEEMS LIKE THE TYPE OF SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRB&issuedby=GRB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin

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LSE mentioning 3 inches of snow with ratios of 18:1 and qpf from 0.05-0.15

 

That's crazy hearing that in mid-November! I'd expect something like that in Winnipeg this time of season, not in Wisconsin!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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GFS Par is latching on to the right idea...I like the looks of those maps, digging SLP in southern Plains, HP in the SE...this system has eyes for the Midwest/Lakes.  The Euro model was the first to show this systems potential as was the case with yesterday's storm up north.  The evolution on the Euro showing nice jet stream structure and now the models are seeing the systems potential with precip.

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18z HR 114 Total Snowfall:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png

 

12z Total Snowfall HR 120:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111112/gfsp_asnow_us_21.png

Looks to be getting wetter with each run especially to our SW.

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GFS Par is latching on to the right idea...I like the looks of those maps, digging SLP in southern Plains, HP in the SE...this system has eyes for the Midwest/Lakes.  The Euro model was the first to show this systems potential as was the case with yesterday's storm up north.  The evolution on the Euro showing nice jet stream structure and now the models are seeing the systems potential with precip.

 

Good trends the last few days.

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Indeed, and that is usually an indication of a stronger system down the road.  What was once and idea of a cold and dry pattern is vanishing before our eyes.  Patience friends....this type of pattern with Pacific systems and a split flow with blocking does not make sense for a dry pattern.  One little wave that was once showing up, is now becoming a widespread system.

 

BTW, 12z Euro ensembles are becoming more aggressive with widespread accumulating snows this weekend.

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Looks like there is a defined northern and southern stream during this time period. We will see if they can phase and create a more organized system than what the deterministic models are showing now. Some of the Euro Ensembles like Tom mentioned are a lot more aggressive. Take a look.

eps_snow_25_mc_29.png

eps_snow_50_mc_29.png

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Not wanting to get too crazy but we could be seeing some high ratios(better than 12:1) with this system especially if it happens at night....and this is November!

 

You bring up a good point. Wasn't even thinking about ratios. Truth is all these snowfall maps are based off of 10:1. 

 

Looking at the ensemble members above, feeling pretty good about a widespread ~2" snowfall in the area.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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You bring up a good point. Wasn't even thinking about ratios. Truth is all these snowfall maps are based off of 10:1. 

 

Looking at the ensemble members above, feeling pretty good about a widespread ~2" snowfall in the area.

 

Yep, ratios could be real quality, and this is less of a nailbiter type of system compared to this most recent one.

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I keep looking at that HP centered off to the east that would allow the southerly flow to come up from the wide open Gulf.  With arctic air in toe, all we need to see is a bit better timing/phasing and you got yourself a healthy system.

Would that also bring in milder air to the system? Maybe that's why some mets are talking low 30s, and even some mixing issues.

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Would that also bring in milder air to the system? Maybe that's why some mets are talking low 30s, and even some mixing issues.

Yes and No, depends on the timing of the northern stream.  Temps do spike up a bit Sat but looks like the system gets going Sat night.

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