Geos Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 The models have a couple waves during this time period and it looks like enough snow will fall to cover the grass in many areas from Nebraska to Michigan. Enough snow for advisories maybe? The EURO's take on it right now at least. GGEM and GFS further south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Probably won't be anything major but a widespread 3-5 snowfall will be nice before the widespread cold 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 I love it when a new thread has started Always a good sign, haha 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 That GFS Parallel map Geo's posted looked real nice..emphasis on the trajectory of the snow shield indicates to me the storm track we have been having this season from the Plains towards the Lakes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Looks like this system hits Cali/Oregon around 12z Thursday and then looses its steam as it heads into the Rockies, but then redevelops on the lee wards side of the Rockies. Lot's of potential here. The 12z Euro ensembles are coming in and they are showing some very healthy widespread 3-6" snows in the Plains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Tom, that trajectory is usually a good direction for those of us in Nebraska and Kansas to get a healthy amount of snow. If it then curves up towards you guys that would make many on the board happy. Still very little talk locally about this potential snow. Just the token snow shower, little accumulation idea. Will see if they start discusses this as the days go by. My wife and daughter have to go to a baby shower in Lincoln on Saturday and stay overnight until Sunday. Lincoln is 2 hours east of us. I have already told them the plan is they won't go if the weather goes downhill. They know I get most of my information from this site and the travel decision will be with safety first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Might get our first measurable snowfall here in KC this weekend. Not bad for mid november. With all of this artic air in place it would be a bummer if we didn't see at least some flakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Should be a nice light snow event to start out the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Im not too excited just yet, being its only Tuesday, although Its good that the potential exists. Hopefully by Friday models are into a good agreement with this possible system. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 LSE mentioning 3 inches of snow with ratios of 18:1 and qpf from 0.05-0.15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 THE OVERALL WX PATTERN STILL SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A ROUND OF SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND AS WRN RIDGE SHARPENS AND PULLS THE ERN TROF WWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS/WRN GREAT LAKES RGN. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DONE A BETTER JOB PICKING UP ON THIS SCENARIO COMPARED TO YDA. THEY HAVE THE BEST PCPN CHCS FOCUSED ON SAT NGT. IN REALITY...IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR THE CHGS TO OCCUR SO EVENT MAY END UP FOCUSED MORE ON SUNDAY. IN ANY CASE...THIS SEEMS LIKE THE TYPE OF SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRB&issuedby=GRB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 MKE saying up to an inch with the system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 LSE mentioning 3 inches of snow with ratios of 18:1 and qpf from 0.05-0.15 That's crazy hearing that in mid-November! I'd expect something like that in Winnipeg this time of season, not in Wisconsin! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z GFS is still pretty weak. Parallel GFS out to HR 72. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_asnow_us_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z HR 114 Total Snowfall: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png 12z Total Snowfall HR 120: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111112/gfsp_asnow_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS Par is latching on to the right idea...I like the looks of those maps, digging SLP in southern Plains, HP in the SE...this system has eyes for the Midwest/Lakes. The Euro model was the first to show this systems potential as was the case with yesterday's storm up north. The evolution on the Euro showing nice jet stream structure and now the models are seeing the systems potential with precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 18z HR 114 Total Snowfall: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111118/gfsp_asnow_us_20.png 12z Total Snowfall HR 120: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111112/gfsp_asnow_us_21.pngLooks to be getting wetter with each run especially to our SW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 GFS Par is latching on to the right idea...I like the looks of those maps, digging SLP in southern Plains, HP in the SE...this system has eyes for the Midwest/Lakes. The Euro model was the first to show this systems potential as was the case with yesterday's storm up north. The evolution on the Euro showing nice jet stream structure and now the models are seeing the systems potential with precip. Good trends the last few days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Wow would be something around these parts if that verified. Maybe some snow for the big game on Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Indeed, and that is usually an indication of a stronger system down the road. What was once and idea of a cold and dry pattern is vanishing before our eyes. Patience friends....this type of pattern with Pacific systems and a split flow with blocking does not make sense for a dry pattern. One little wave that was once showing up, is now becoming a widespread system. BTW, 12z Euro ensembles are becoming more aggressive with widespread accumulating snows this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Another version of the parallel GFS snowfall map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Not wanting to get too crazy but we could be seeing some high ratios(better than 12:1) with this system especially if it happens at night....and this is November! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted November 11, 2014 Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 Hoping this thing can jog 100 miles Northwest. We'd be in play for some of those heavier totals down in Kansas. Given with what happened with this past storm, I'm liking where we are positioned right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Local met saying low 30s and light snow. Not sure why low 30s since 850s will be -10 or colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Looks like there is a defined northern and southern stream during this time period. We will see if they can phase and create a more organized system than what the deterministic models are showing now. Some of the Euro Ensembles like Tom mentioned are a lot more aggressive. Take a look. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 DMX's take on weekend system:LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.AND SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Not wanting to get too crazy but we could be seeing some high ratios(better than 12:1) with this system especially if it happens at night....and this is November! You bring up a good point. Wasn't even thinking about ratios. Truth is all these snowfall maps are based off of 10:1. Looking at the ensemble members above, feeling pretty good about a widespread ~2" snowfall in the area. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 WxCaster has a GFS vs parallel GFS snow map up. Looks like it only runs on the 00z and 12z model runs though. http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS-PARA_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_144HR.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS has started. NAM at hr 84: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I keep looking at that HP centered off to the east that would allow the southerly flow to come up from the wide open Gulf. With arctic air in toe, all we need to see is a bit better timing/phasing and you got yourself a healthy system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 You bring up a good point. Wasn't even thinking about ratios. Truth is all these snowfall maps are based off of 10:1. Looking at the ensemble members above, feeling pretty good about a widespread ~2" snowfall in the area. Yep, ratios could be real quality, and this is less of a nailbiter type of system compared to this most recent one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I keep looking at that HP centered off to the east that would allow the southerly flow to come up from the wide open Gulf. With arctic air in toe, all we need to see is a bit better timing/phasing and you got yourself a healthy system.Would that also bring in milder air to the system? Maybe that's why some mets are talking low 30s, and even some mixing issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I see a much more defined low on the 0z GFS compared to 18z GFS.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Would that also bring in milder air to the system? Maybe that's why some mets are talking low 30s, and even some mixing issues. True, wouldn't be worried here if the bulk of this system occurred at night. Hard to imagine temps above freezing at night with this airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Would that also bring in milder air to the system? Maybe that's why some mets are talking low 30s, and even some mixing issues.Yes and No, depends on the timing of the northern stream. Temps do spike up a bit Sat but looks like the system gets going Sat night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeah temperatures will be an issue around here. Still, this kind of persistent cold in mid November is ridiculous. Oh yeah, can't wait for that storm in the U.P. to cycle back through in mid January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 GFS shows 3-5 inches of snow for N. NE/S. SD and into MN/IA and craps itself as it gets to the east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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