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November 15-17th Snow Prospects


Geos

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Expecting a NW trend with this one too!?

 

At least there is some moisture on the table. And the NAM was further north - that I saw.

 

One thing in this region, the DGZ (dendritic growth zone) is 300 mb deep Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom, what are you thinking for this storm? Do you think GGEM/EURO is more right or the GFS?

I think in the medium range the GFS has it's problems, but its catching on slowly.  It's hard to say which way to go with this system right now but I like the look of the GGEM/EURO combo.  If the Euro comes in more developed tonight, watch out...this could get interesting.  If not, then I could see this become a very widespread weak/moderate wave in the 1-3" or 3-5" range.

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00z Euro....

 

Seems like it holds the energy back instead of shooting it out farther from the Plains.  The trends in a more juicier system is encouraging with the Euro.  Still holds a lot of potential.  From just 2 days ago we were talking a meager 2-4" in a narrow strip to now this is a step in the right direction.  

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Look how much the Euro has changed just 24 hours ago in the jet structure...check out that buckle!  Spells trouble anywhere from the Plains/Midwest/OV/Lower Lakes...not soo much east coast.  Look at how much more real estate is covered by snow with each run.  Nice trends as we move forward.

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