Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Looks like 2 distinct snow bands on the 00z GFS...at least it is showing more moisture and snow from previous runs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeah temperatures will be an issue around here. Still, this kind of persistent cold in mid November is ridiculous. Oh yeah, can't wait for that storm in the U.P. to cycle back through in mid January. Might be as early as the week of New Year's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Odd looking system. Looks way too progressive and suppressed for any widespread high level accumulations. Would be nice to see something more organized form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png With those highs centered ENE and NNW, it will be hard for this to cut sadly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 With those highs centered ENE and NNW, it will be hard for this to cut sadly.Wouldn't it cut between them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Wouldn't it cut between them? It could, but I think lodging one very strong high and a medium strong one (and that one is the one more in its direct path) would prove to be more difficult than pushing the one to the east north and sliding south of it (into the SE/Lower Ohio Valley). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111200/gfsp_asnow_us_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Parallel has been taking a southerly track last few runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 And now this system is going south of Nebraska! Gawwwwwd!!! Can we ever win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Parallel has been taking a southerly track last few runs I think it's right, just because the last storm trended NW, it sadly doesn't apply to the next one in the same way necessarily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Both the GFS and Parallel were way off on the last storm (too far south) NAM/EURO nailed it wihin 84 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Both the GFS and Parallel were way off on the last storm (too far south) NAM/EURO nailed it wihin 84 hours We can only hope history repeats itself! Did you see any snow today Money? Didn't check the other thread today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Plenty of time guys. This run was definitely closer to some interaction between the two waves than before. Any changes in timing of the high pressure can also have major implications. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 We can only hope history repeats itself! Did you see any snow today Money? Didn't check the other thread today. It snowed, but only for like 20 mins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 What I mean is Parallel seems quite a ways south of GFS op last few runs. NAM at 84 seems even further north of GFS op. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Expecting a NW trend with this one too!? At least there is some moisture on the table. And the NAM was further north - that I saw. One thing in this region, the DGZ (dendritic growth zone) is 300 mb deep Saturday night/Sunday morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Expecting a NW trend with this one too!? At least there is some moisture on the table. And the NAM was further north - that I saw. Meh, probably not, at least not with the blocking that is showing up. It's all going to be about the phasing though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I wouldn't mind a 1-2 inch snowfall to start out the season anyways. Anything more would be a bonus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 I like where the CMC is going with this. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Is CMC and GEM the same model? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Yeah it is. Don't forget that the map is in 10:1 ratios. We could be easily looking at 15-18:1 ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Loving the trends. Cant wait to see Euro. Hopefully we can get some widespread advisory type snows this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Boy that sure is a lot of inconsistency with the models. GFS gives Kansas a very healthy storm and the Canadian completely moves the snow way north. Hopefully they meet in the middle! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Tom, what are you thinking for this storm? Do you think GGEM/EURO is more right or the GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Tom, what are you thinking for this storm? Do you think GGEM/EURO is more right or the GFS?I think in the medium range the GFS has it's problems, but its catching on slowly. It's hard to say which way to go with this system right now but I like the look of the GGEM/EURO combo. If the Euro comes in more developed tonight, watch out...this could get interesting. If not, then I could see this become a very widespread weak/moderate wave in the 1-3" or 3-5" range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Any word on the 0z euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Any word on the 0z euro?Only to 72HR... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 00z Euro coming in juicier for KS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Gulf moisture becoming more evident...nice hit Kansas City so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Looks like it just dies off as it heads east right ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 00z Euro.... Seems like it holds the energy back instead of shooting it out farther from the Plains. The trends in a more juicier system is encouraging with the Euro. Still holds a lot of potential. From just 2 days ago we were talking a meager 2-4" in a narrow strip to now this is a step in the right direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2014 Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 Look how much the Euro has changed just 24 hours ago in the jet structure...check out that buckle! Spells trouble anywhere from the Plains/Midwest/OV/Lower Lakes...not soo much east coast. Look at how much more real estate is covered by snow with each run. Nice trends as we move forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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