gosaints Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Hi-res models all look good around here parallel gfs as well. GGEM not so much but doesnt worry me much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 NMM and ARW are almost identical with the placement of the northern band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Loving it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 I wouldnt sleep on this system if i was further to the east, Ā have seen them hold them together longer than modeled many times 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z Euro holding together the northern band a bit better this run...high rez models tonight will give us a good idea on the layout. Ā I must say, that by Sunday afternoon over 40% of this nation will have snow cover on Nov 16th! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 12z GGEM.Ā Ā Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 That area to the north keeps sinking south.Ā This storm may surprise Nebraska.Ā According to this map, the places with the chances of the most snow are not in the WWA.Ā I have seen this before that areas outside of an advisory get hit harder than those in it.Ā Time will tell.Ā Keep coming a few more miles south and most of Nebraska will be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 That area to the north keeps sinking south.Ā This storm may surprise Nebraska.Ā According to this map, the places with the chances of the most snow are not in the WWA.Ā I have seen this before that areas outside of an advisory get hit harder than those in it.Ā Time will tell.Ā Keep coming a few more miles south and most of Nebraska will be happy.Ride the GGEM with caution Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 yeah if this storm drops 6-10" anywhere in Nebraska, I'll sell my house! I don't buy that model at all. 2-4 seems to be a safe estimate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 What I don't buy is this map. Everyone is in a WWA except for me!! I'm the area where you have two counties not included! I agree, I have seen this a hundred times where this thing pops up and surprises a lot. Like I said yesterday, really anything I see will be awesome.Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'm in the 2-4" range off this updated snow graphic. I swear predicting snow amounts is like finding out how the universe was created!Ā Ā Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 SREF mean up over 4 inches for rochester Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Nice heavier streak coming across southern WI on the 18z 4km NAM!Ā Ā Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Nice heavier streak coming across southern WI on the 18z 4km NAM!Ā nam4km_asnow_ncus_21 (1).pngJust need that band to come south about 60 miles or so and we would be in business. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 I'd say this event is going to be more so a nowcast type and watch the radar returns. Ā I like what the models are showing and SREF's seem to be increasing the moisture output, but with no defined SLP its hard to say where these heavier bands set up. Ā Give me 2" and I'll be stoked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Winter weather advisories all the way up to the LOT's western edge. Surprised MKX didn't issue some along their southwestern edge. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 The .26" bullseye in Iowa is exactly where I live. LOL!http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 Des Moines AFD just updated. Going with 3-5" now for Northern Iowa. Also mentions Monday being very winterlike with cold air, strong winds, snowshowers and blowing snow.http://kamala.cod.edu/ia/latest.fxus63.KDMX.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 GFS parallel through 60 hours.Ā Ā 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 GFS parallel through 60 hours.Ā gfsp_asnow_eus_11.pngThrowing 4" at me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted November 14, 2014 Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 DVN saying around 3pm start time tomorrow for me. Hope to get some daytime snow watching in! Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter Ā 78.1" Ā Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage Ā : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow Ā : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Alamakee county in Iowa just got added to WWA. So now all 99 counties in Iowa are under WWA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Still 1-3" forecasted for my area. Thinking 2" is a fairly good bet. Top layer of the soil is frozen, so the snow will stick right away. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 18z RGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Wow looks like I might not even get a dusting. Too bad the Thanksgiving storm looks like a rain event. It's only November though so lots of time left that will hopefully be filled with an active weather pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 is it that time of year again....time for snow....lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 18z RGEM...Ā RGEM is a decent model really. Nice to see that map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 10/11 news rpm model showed 4-6" of snow for areas along and north of the platte river from Grand island to Columbus. I'll sneeze 100 dollar bills if that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Haha^Ā 4km NAM this evening. Showing a little more love for eastern NE.Ā Ā Parallel GFSĀ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total:Ā 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Haha^Ā 4km NAM this evening. Showing a little more love for eastern NE.Ā http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111500/nam4km_asnow_ncus_21.pngĀ Parallel GFSĀ http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111500/gfsp_asnow_eus_11.pngTheir in-house model also showed a complete dominant northern wave. Snow going on in nw nebraska expands and moves through early tomorrow morning; I'm hoping for a surprise or just a solid 2-4" strip of snow through the state. Hastings NWS page looks like a jigsaw puzzle with the advisories!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Hoping for a surprise but not expecting much.Ā You guys in Eastern Nebraska might do alright though.Ā Kearney looks to be in a pretty bad place for accumulations.Ā Seems like my area will be lucky to squeeze out 2 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 3.2 my final call for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Hoping for a surprise but not expecting much. You guys in Eastern Nebraska might do alright though. Kearney looks to be in a pretty bad place for accumulations. Seems like my area will be lucky to squeeze out 2 inches.I'd gladly take 2"! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 We've lost probably a good 1.5-2 hours of snowfall due to dry air. Have the good old hole around us on the radar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 10/11 news rpm model showed 4-6" of snow for areas along and north of the platte river from Grand island to Columbus. I'll sneeze 100 dollar bills if that happens.Looks like this model will win out!! 2-4" for most areas in eastern nebraska with 3-6" possible further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 My official guess is 1.2" for Rock Island. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Come on snow, I see you knocking on my door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 The system dries out as it heads east, and southern areas have really been trimmed back. Ā I'm going with 1.5 in CR. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Still not snowing here other than a couple of flakes. Can see the sun through the clouds yet. Stupid dry air! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 15, 2014 Report Share Posted November 15, 2014 Radar looks like heavy snow. Dry air is horrible. Holdrege had about 1 inch earlier this morning. Cloudy now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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