November 15-17th Snow Prospects

[Money]

SREF Plumes showing 1-2 for Racine/Milwaukee/Chicago  3 for S. MN

[Money]

0z NAM slowing things down with more precip...

[Geos]

0z NAM slowing things down with more precip...

 

This run seems like it's taking forever!

[Money]

Much better run than 18z for NE/KS/IA etc. Widespread 1-3 for pretty much everyone in this section. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I would take that for Nebraska.

[bud2380]

SREF Plumes showing 1-2 for Racine/Milwaukee/Chicago  3 for S. MN

Do you have a link to the sref plumes?

[Money]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/

 

Just find your area etc and hit total snow and you can see every member and the median. 

[Geos]

Still out of the accuracy range for the NAM, but the trend is going the right direction.

 

 

[Money]

These are the type of systems that can really over-perform especially with the ratios of 15-18:1 some offices are putting out. 

 

18z GFS Ensembles 72 HR accumulation: 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_18z/f114.gif

[winterfreak]

The EURO and GFS need to do us a solid just this one time.

[Tom]

Overall, many people on this forum will have a great opportunity to have snow fly and receive their first 1" or greater snowfall for the season.  Not to shabby.  I was out earlier today at the local stores shopping for Christmas and there are soo many nice lights, ornaments, and outdoor decor to decorate your place.  I'm probably going to wait till the weekend before Thanksgiving to put them up.

[Tom]

The EURO and GFS need to do us a solid just this one time.

Still think the Euro is onto something bigger as we get closer...hoping we can get this baby to phase earlier.

[jimmyzlc]

Any hints at any thing showing up for midweek next week?

[clintbeed1993]

Lets see what the GFS says..

[centralweather44]

When is the next euro due out?

[East Dubzz]

Euro doesn't run again till around midnight.

[Money]

GFS coming in slower again. Seems like each run the precip is getting later and later to arrive. 

[Money]

1-2 for Chicago/Milwaukee. 2-3 for Iowa, 4-8 for most of Kansas, 1-5 for most of Nebraska. 

[clintbeed1993]

It completely splits Central Nebraska...How in the hell does that even happen?

[educatorjen]

Hmmm...I like the 5 part of 1-5 for most of Nebraska...but, I guess I shouldn't be greedy since it is just November.  

[Money]

Parallel GFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

[Scott26]

The southern wave is just way too fast. If it could only slow down a bit we would have a chance at a phased, more organized system. I'm not complaining though. It's still going to be a nice 1-2 inch high-ratio snow to start out the season.

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

[East Dubzz]

Doesn't look like anything good is going to come of that Parallel GFS

[Money]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111300/gfsp_asnow_us_14.png

[Money]

The southern wave is just way too fast. If it could only slow down a bit we would have a chance at a phased, more organized system. I'm not complaining though. It's still going to be a nice 1-2 inch high-ratio snow to start out the season.

 

Yup. Running out of time. 

[East Dubzz]

Actually not terrible, a nice 1-3"

[clintbeed1993]

Not too concerned with the placement of the heavier bands.  I am right in between them, not a bad spot to be 3 days out.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Any hints at any thing showing up for midweek next week?

 

Looks to be cold and dry turning a tad warmer but still primarily dry, esp in the cold sector.  I don't think the next storm will be a big snowmaker, but the one Thanksgiving week obviously has potential if it keeps showing up.

[Geos]

Hoping the GGEM and EURO can win this one. If only the southern wave could slow down several hours.

 

CMC moisture plot.

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Count me as a fan of tonights Euro!

[Money]

What does it show?

[East Dubzz]

I don't have access to it all, but I can give you this.. http://i.imgur.com/SXIj6Ja.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Basically all of the GFS Ensembles show .1-.25"QPF for Milwaukee, so as I mentioned in another forum, my initial call will be 1.6" of snow here, hopefully I can bump that up a bit later.

[Geos]

LOT explaining why the snow won't have a hard time sticking. Post the EURO map in a bit.

 

 

IT DOES HELP TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
THAT FALL OUT WHEN 1. APPLYING RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 17:1 SUPPORTED BY
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND 2. MIXING RATIOS OF 1.5 G/KG WITHIN
A SIX HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH
MELTING DESPITE PROBABLE LIGHT RATES THANKS TO FIVE COLD DAYS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS. SOIL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FELL QUICKLY AS
INDICATED BY THE 4 INCH TEMP AT THE WFO NOW 38 DEGREES HAVING GONE
DOWN 12 DEGREES IN TWO DAYS.

 

[tim the weatherman]

LOT explaining why the snow won't have a hard time sticking. Post the EURO map in a bit.

they are right that it won't be a problem for the snow to stick according to greencast that the soil temps is in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

[winterfreak]

It's getting pretty quiet on here. Hopefully we'll all have something to track around Thanksgiving.

[gosaints]

It's getting pretty quiet on here. Hopefully we'll all have something to track around Thanksgiving.

Its way early in the season.  This has been like bonus model watching

[NEJeremy]

This is from my local AFD overnight. It's going to snow, but it looks like Omaha is going to get split by the 2 heavier bands:

 

THIS PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS RESULTS IN
SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. 2 TO 4 NORTH AND SOUTH WITH CLOSER TO
A RANGE OF 1 TO 3 (AN AVERAGE OF 2) IN THE OMAHA/COUNCIL
BLUFFS/LINCOLN AREAS.