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November 15-17th Snow Prospects


Geos

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OP GFS shows about 2 inches of snow in MN/IA/WI/W. IL and about 1-1.5 for Chicago. Completely splits central Nebraska with N. NEB getting 3-5 inches and most of it stays in Kansas 

 

Central Nebraska still sees 2-3" similar to S Wisconsin, it's just that areas to their north and south receive a super hit.

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We joke about the Nebraska dome, but when you look at maps like this it makes you wonder what is going on.  If you were from here and knew how many times this happened over the years, you would see our frustration.  I brought this up in the teachers lounge last year and I have teachers now say "well Nebraska was missed again.  Must be that dome"

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Does anybody understand why this is happening?? I'm just utterly confused as to why this "dome" is occurring over Central and Eastern Neb with this storm. Is it dry air filling in?? I'm just confused, because judging by the storm itself, it doesn't really make sense.

You need the pieces of energy to phase

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For Nebraska the northern wave needs to speed up or the southern wave needs to slow down. Like Gosaints is getting at - you need better phasing to lift that air in between those two snow bands coming out in the Plains.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I really don't care if we receive a dusting, an inch or a couple of inches because it's November but the snow forecast is really funny. You have an area high lighted north of us and south of us with a slight chance of >4" of snow. Talk about bad luck, now when we get into the heart of winter and this happens then I'll start to be upset! Really anything we see is bonus in my book. 

day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

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MKX disco:

 

 

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THOUGH THERE IS NOT A TON OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...FAIRLY DEEP SATURATION OCCURS
FOR A TIME...WITH THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS
ABOUT 250-300 MB DEEP DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST LIFT. BEST
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPEST SATURATION IS EXPECTED SAT
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHEN AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I really don't care if we receive a dusting, an inch or a couple of inches because it's November but the snow forecast is really funny. You have an area high lighted north of us and south of us with a slight chance of >4" of snow. Talk about bad luck, now when we get into the heart of winter and this happens then I'll start to be upset! Really anything we see is bonus in my book. 

 

Upset here too, not quite for the same reasons, but a big snowstorm to the north of us early this week, now the big snows will tend to be to the south this week, and we already were in a mini screw zone last winter (though not as much as Nebraska I'll have to admit).

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That's old, given current developments we may see DAB make an appearance lol.

 

Must be the ratios the offices are counting on then. Because LOT mentions the same thing.

 

 

WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID-LEVEL THERE ARE

INDICATIONS OF MODEST BAROCLINICITY AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO

THE WEST THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE

IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET INTO SPECIFICS SUCH AS THAT...IT DOES

HELP TO ADD CONFIDENCE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES

THAT FALL OUT WHEN 1. APPLYING RATIOS OF 15:1 TO 17:1 SUPPORTED BY

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES AND 2. MIXING RATIOS OF 1.5 G/KG WITHIN

A SIX HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH

MELTING DESPITE PROBABLE LIGHT RATES THANKS TO FIVE COLD DAYS IN

ADVANCE OF THIS. SOIL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FELL QUICKLY AS

INDICATED BY THE 4 INCH TEMP AT THE WFO NOW 38 DEGREES HAVING GONE

DOWN 12 DEGREES IN TWO DAYS.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The SREF plumes average out to be 1.4" here. Spread is about 0.3"-3.0". Local TV mets talking about similar accumulations. So in all, probably just enough to cover the grass and cause the roads to get slick.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I'm ready to see some light snow fall this weekend.  Good thing we had this cold air around so long to cool the ground temps that will allow the snow to accumulate.  Nothing better than seeing white on the street other than wet roads!  I don't mind that this system for now hasn't developed to something bigger.  I think this may over perform a bit in areas as I read from the local AFD's there is a good bit of lift caused by the jet stream structure and I tried pointing that out a few days ago.  Nonetheless, it'll be a nice treat this weekend while shopping for more Christmas decor!

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Good evening all.....

 

Must say, today was a day full of snowshowers flying in the air, some moderate too with areas of white on the ground. Also, my local weatherman earlier said that snowfall is likely for SEMI this weekend and some places could be looking at several inches of snow. Honestly, I was expecting a few snowshowers or flurries. That was a shocker when I heard him say that. Cannot wait to see what mother nature will do this weekend.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The cold is not only freezing the ground, it is dropping the lake temperatures. This may be on of the few seasons where there is no mixing issues near the lake early in the season when a storm turns winds onshore.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I feel as well that this weekend's system may over perform in some areas. A lot of talk about DGZ and high ratios. Maybe it will be one of those last minute WWA events.

James..I was thinking the same thing too. Sometimes those systems can bring big surprises and that has happened plenty of times.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I kind of feel the NAM is out of touch still on this system, especially after it shows little to nothing in KS and MO.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Now the GFS parallel just needs to extend it a bit further east! Find it strange now that the heaviest snow is north, not south.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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