Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Will this be the first monster storm of the season? The Euro has been the most aggressive with this system but it is missing the cold connection for now. Will this change? Let's discuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 So we have: GFS/PGFS: Really messed upGGEM: See GFS/PGFSUKIE: 979 L S. WI at HR 144 EURO: 980 L S. LM at HR 144 So, 2 bombs and 3 weaker/non-phased systems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 This thing is eerily simmilar to the Christmas blizzard of 2010 we had down here. Unfortunately it looks like rain will win this battle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 This thing is eerily simmilar to the Christmas blizzard of 2010 we had down here. Unfortunately it looks like rain will win this battle.I just checked the teleconnections back then and the AO/NAO were in the tank. It's too bad this time around they are opposite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 I just checked the teleconnections back then and the AO/NAO were in the tank. It's too bad this time around they are opposite. Aren't they near neutral around this timeframe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 GEFS looking lame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THEOFFING EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY DEAMPLIFIESAND BECOMES SPLIT OVER NORTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURESARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANTSYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THISSYSTEM...MOSTLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERNSTREAM SHORTWAVES. ITS DIFFICULT TO BUY INTO PHASING THIS FAROUT...SO WILL TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE DUE TO A LOWCONFIDENCE FORECAST. No surprise but at least it's on their radar. NWS GRB Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z GFS coming in stronger. 989 L near Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z GFS coming in stronger. 989 L near Chicago. Still not much of backside though? and no cold air? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Just no cold air with this system. It seems our only hope it with backside snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Aren't they near neutral around this timeframe?AO/NAO is supposed to pop up in neutral territory according to the Euro so a system phasing later up near the Canadian border seems likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Still muddled mess at 500 mb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Parallel GFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_21.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_23.pngLol a flying V of lows Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_24.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_25.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_26.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Last two images: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_27.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014111812/gfsp_z500_mslp_us_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Not much of a chance with this thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain... What a waste of a record breaking Bering Sea storm and it's energy coming across the US. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 UKMET: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Its beginning to look like a mud pit, everywhere you go! Not much of anything through dec 5th! What a shame! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Its beginning to look like a mud pit, everywhere you go! Not much of anything through dec 5th! What a shame!Long range GFS has its problems...I wouldn't pay attn to it that much. Euro ensembles are doing a much better job with this pattern. Even though AO/NAO pop positive, the EPO/WPO stay negative and that will allow the cold to fight back just like it did the same time last year when the AO was sky high positive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 GGEM develops the bomb. 975 in N. MI it looks like at hr 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z UKMET/GGEM are nearly identical in strength and location at HR 144. GFS/Par. GFS still doesn't have a clue and looks wacky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 If you want snow, the best chance most of you guys have here is for this thing to fully phase and bomb out to draw in colder air and develop backside/wraparound snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z GGEM...still to warm though for any snow...doesn't really tap into the cold until its closer to the Canadian border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 That northern stream wave won't do us any good if it just scoots eastward along the Canadian border. It needs to dig. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Unless that Alaskan Ridge can fight back and somehow push it farther south, then we are in business. It keeps showing up on the Euro ensembles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tom, how did the 0z euro individual ensembles look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Tom, how did the 0z euro individual ensembles look?Many seem north... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Many seem north... There are a few in there that aren't too bad. Too bad the majority of them aren't like 17 or 8. Just wish that northern low wasn't there or it would start showing signs of digging southward. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z euro has a 985 L in NE Indiana and a 985 L in NE WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 12z Euro still no cold connection until the system is way north. The most likely solution for any snow will be backside snows when this storm matures and begins occluding. However, the Euro did jog this storm farther SE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 The expansive coverage of this system is going to be quite amazing. Looks like there are more snows farther west this run and the Euro has 3 separate pieces of energy the Dakotas, Lakes and southern Midwest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 This is going to be a big pain for the models to figure out with all the pieces involved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 There are some interesting changes on the 12z Euro run...will wait till it fully loads... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Is this the thanksgiving storm or is there another one showing up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 18, 2014 Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 Heard on American that it's back to a two wave part with a 989 L over STL at 139 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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