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11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System


Tom

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This thing is eerily simmilar to the Christmas blizzard of 2010 we had down here. Unfortunately it looks like rain will win this battle.

I just checked the teleconnections back then and the AO/NAO were in the tank.  It's too bad this time around they are opposite.

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THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE

OFFING EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY DEAMPLIFIES

AND BECOMES SPLIT OVER NORTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES

ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT

SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS

SYSTEM...MOSTLY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN

STREAM SHORTWAVES. ITS DIFFICULT TO BUY INTO PHASING THIS FAR

OUT...SO WILL TAKE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE DUE TO A LOW

CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

 

No surprise but at least it's on their radar. NWS GRB

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Its beginning to look like a mud pit, everywhere you go! Not much of anything through dec 5th! What a shame!

Long range GFS has its problems...I wouldn't pay attn to it that much.  Euro ensembles are doing a much better job with this pattern.  Even though AO/NAO pop positive, the EPO/WPO stay negative and that will allow the cold to fight back just like it did the same time last year when the AO was sky high positive.

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That northern stream wave won't do us any good if it just scoots eastward along the Canadian border.  It needs to dig.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Many seem north...

 

There are a few in there that aren't too bad. Too bad the majority of them aren't like 17 or 8.

 

Just wish that northern low wasn't there or it would start showing signs of digging southward. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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