11/23 - 11/24 Potential Major Storm System

[Money]

At hr 144 it's 978 in the UP

[gosaints]

At hr 144 it's 978 in the UP

must sit and spin for awhile

[gosaints]

Sounds like it gets down to 971.  My guess is the track continues to creep west 

[Tom]

As this thing bombs out, my suspicion seems to be working out that anyone to the west and south will get some wrap around snows from this system.  If all works out, at least some will get some fresh snow cover.

[gosaints]

As this thing bombs out, my suspicion seems to be working out that anyone to the west and south will get some wrap around snows from this system.  If all works out, at least some will get some fresh snow cover.

If trends point to the EURO.  Some places could experience boderline blizzard conditions

[Money]

Nice good trends today

[Tom]

If trends point to the EURO.  Some places could experience boderline blizzard conditions

Maybe in MN/IA...

[gosaints]

Well if the EURO is right we shouldnt have any lack of moisture the next couple weeks.  Thanksgiving storm warm to but also really wet

[gosaints]

Afternoon forecast discussions should be at least more interesting today

[Money]

Couple gfs members gets it down to 965

[Hawkeye]

It's looking decent for a rainfall of 0.50-1.00" Sunday, although a couple models have a sharp western edge so any shift to the east could leave us drier.

[Tom]

Some of the 12z Euro ensembles are showing decent wrap around snows now for MN/IA/IL/WI...here is the 12z Control...

[Geos]

18Z OP GFS only bringing the 40° line up to about Kenosha this weekend. That's a change from before. 

[james1976]

Is this storm part of the LRC? Cuz if it is, someone will get destroyed in January.

[Geos]

980mb in northern IL on the op GFS.

 

 

[Tom]

Some big snows in MN and the Northwoods...

 

[Geos]

Weatherbell snowfall map.

 

[Money]

How does the ggem look?

[Tom]

00z GGEM...takes the southern SLP thru S IN and SE MI, much farther south this run.

[Geos]

00z GGEM...takes the southern SLP thru S IN and SE MI, much farther south this run.

 

Normally in the winter that would be a great track for us and WI to see heavy snow. Too bad the cold air is being chased away this weekend.

[Tom]

Normally in the winter that would be a great track for us and WI to see heavy snow. Too bad the cold air is being chased away this weekend.

When this storm feature comes around in Cycle 2, I think there will be more blocking than this time around and there may be a whole different story then.

[Tom]

Th-Snow is going to get the brunt of this storm on this forum, no other way to look at it right now...00z Euro still showing some wrap around snows.

[gosaints]

NAM is gonna be way left.  Not surprising

[Tom]

12z GGEM takes the track farther SE through S IL to NE IN...its trying to paint a slimmer of snow through S IL/S IN....hmmmm

[Money]

Euro a little SE and weaker

[gosaints]

Euro a little SE and weaker

Trend today for sure, but not that uncommon at this range

[Tom]

Much less snow this run...

[Geos]

GFS showing a secondary low and it's close to catching the colder air...

 

 

[Money]

Hmm. 

 

GGEM seems like it has a lot of wrap around snows or something.

 

Here is HR 84:

 

 

Now here is HR 96

 

 

Look at where the low is, the 850 line and how much precip is on the backside. Any thoughts?

[Money]

Here is HR 108:

 

 

Still showing precip in the WI/MI area. 

[Money]

Here's the 2M temps at 96. Really odd...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014112100/gem_T2m_us_17.png

[Money]

Here is HR 84 2M temps (and it shows Iowa with 21 MM of QPF which would all be snow between hr 84 and 96) 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014112100/gem_T2m_us_15.png

[Geos]

GGEM looks like it is leaving some sort of trough axis or left over energy behind. Best guess to what it is.

[Money]

Someone on American said "00z GGEM is a significant snow maker"

[Geos]

Someone on American said "00z GGEM is a significant snow maker"

 

Yeah, more than any other model.

It's some sort of trough axis/upper level low feature.

 

 

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

That's... Interesting..

[Money]

Some of the GGEM ensembles have something like that as well.

 

Here's HR 84-96 QPF:

 

[Money]

It's interesting that the GFS was trying to develop something as well down into IL/IN. We'll see what the EURO says.

[Money]

GGEM snowfall based on actual ratios:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014112100/gem_asnow_us_24.png

[Money]

Euro out to hr 96. Gets it down to about 977 in Canada.