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Westerns Take on the Buffalo Snow Event of 2014


richard mann

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Maybe it'll catch on. If not sooner, then later.
 

Lol @ Buffalo NY..I'm raging with jealousy. Reading this [forecast] disc[ussi]o[n] makes me want to chug a flaming cocktail:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BUF&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...HIGH CONFIDENCE LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH TIGHT NORTHERN GRADIENT AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...

FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN...THIS HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF A HISTORIC OR AT LEAST WELL REMEMBERED LAKE EFFECT EVENT...WITH SNOW TOTALS
EXCEEDING 3 FEET IN SOME AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. THE 24 HR/36+ INCH EVENT IN 12/1995 FOR KBUF IS HARD TO BEAT...BUT SOME LOCATIONS MAY REACH THIS VALUE TO THE SOUTH. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

AREAS EAST OF BUFFALO...THE MAIN INTERCHANGES OF THE THRUWAY TO THE SOUTH...AND THE SOUTHTOWNS SHOULD TAKE A HARD HIT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FEET OF SNOW...WITH MAJOR DISRUPTIONS TO TRAFFIC AS SNOW RATES FAR EXCEED THE ABILITY TO KEEP ROADS CLEAR. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LOCALIZED 3-5 INCH/HR SNOW RATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSNOW. SIMILAR SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL MEASURING SNOW IN FEET.

A FEW CLIMATOLOGICAL NOTES...500MB TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW -40C...A TESTAMENT TO HOW UNUSUAL THE PATTERN WILL BE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BOARD WILL BE SIMILARLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH 200MB WAY OFF THE CHARTS OVER A 30 YEAR CLIMATOLOGY. AT 850MB...THE -15C TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN STRONG CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSNOW IN THE HEART OF THE BANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES AS A RESULT..


... fascinating.
 
I have been doing a traffic cam tour of western NY.    Buffalo is a divided metro... with the north side of town and the downtown area in sunshine with a very small amount of snow on the ground while just a few miles to the south they are in the middle of a crippling blizzard.
 
That would be like sunshine in Bothell and Woodinville while Bellevue was buried in 5 feet of snow.   And the line never moves!   
 
I know this division happens all the time in Buffalo... just must be strange to work in an office downtown and half the people coming from the north suburbs have no issue at all coming to work while the people south of this magical line are buried alive and can't move.     Lesson... if any of us move to Buffalo make sure you pick a spot SOUTH of downtown.   :)
 
Here is the link to browse the traffic cams:
 

http://www.trafficland.com/city/BUF



Here is an image from downtown Buffalo looking south toward the lake effect snow band... with sunshine overhead.
 
http://s28.postimg.org/jeovm14a5/buf1_2.jpg
 
 
And just a couple miles south of the image above inside the lake effect snow band... looks like the freeway is shut down and trucks are stranded.
 
http://s29.postimg.org/4p9x68wmv/buf2_2.jpg



Here is an exerpt from the NOAA forecast for Bristol NY.  NOAA is usually pretty conservative in their snow amounts too.  Thunder snow too.

  • Today Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 25. Windy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 25 to 31 inches possible.
  •  
  • Tonight Snow with areas of blowing snow before 1am, then snow likely between 1am and 2am, then snow with areas of blowing snow after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 10 inches possible.


NWS BUFFALO
Our current snow total forecast from this event through Wed pm., is now at 70 inches for local areas just south of
#Buffalo NY #snow



Those pictures are insane... I love the aerial photo of the north edge of the band.
 
http://s10.postimg.org/r8onfd5ih/buf3.jpg


Wowzers.


I love snow and all, but that stuff is just stupid.  
 
Obviously not as intense, but I remember similar looks at the coast a couple times in February 1989 and 1990.  Both times it looked like a wall of fog approaching off the water and then it snowed hard.  I liked it.


The video is just, wow. If I had the money I would have to go there with some other weather nuts just to experience that. Thanks Tim for sharing the video.


Absolutely incredible how persistent the Lake Effect band just South of Buffalo is.
 
This is 16 hours of radar activity. Some areas have gotten nearly 5 feet in less than 24 hours.

 
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-200

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Topeka is sunny and 41 right now.

 

But a good comparison to tracking an event bringing 5 feet of snow on one side of Buffalo while the sun is shining on the other side of town

Buffalo suburb of 88,000+ people...

 

B2utoZYIAAE9RBO.jpg

 

 

A town divided by the storm...

 

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/cheektowaga-a-town-divided-by-storm-20141118

It is amazing how snow can create a structure like a cornice when the temp is right. This has to be one of the best I've seen. Of course we should start a separate thread for all of the Buffalo talk. Did you hear about the white buffalo?

One more post... the Buffalo NWS continues to downplay this event as being just a non-event for a place that gets snow.   :)    

 

 

 

INCREDIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT

WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND

DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...

 

OFF LAKE ERIE...RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A NEAR STATIONARY AND

POWERFUL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. FLOW ALONG LAKE ERIE REMAINS WELL

ALIGNED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ORIENTING THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF

THE BAND FROM NEAR SOUTH BUFFALO...ACROSS SOUTHERN CHEEKTOWAGA...TO

NORTH ALDEN. THE NEAR STATIONARY ORIENTATION OF THIS BAND IN

COMBINATION WITH SNOW RATES AROUND 4 INCHES PER HOURS HAVE RESULTED

IN LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS TOPPING 4 FEET. IN FACT...THE NORTHERN

EDGE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IS SO SHARPLY DEFINED THAT SNOW

AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TOWN OF CHEEKTOWAGA RANGE FROM JUST A FEW INCHES

ON THE NORTH SIDE...TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE

TOWN. CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS LAKE BAND IS INDEED A WALL OF

SNOW...WHERE THOSE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH TOWNS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO

TRAVEL AS THEY WILL GET STUCK...AND THOSE LOCATED IN THE NORTH TOWNS

SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL TO THE SOUTH TOWNS AS THE RAPIDLY

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL CATCH TRAVELERS BY SURPRISE.

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OMG...Reports of 6+ feet now, with another 2-3 feet expected overnight:

 

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/cBTej3/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/3WDWG1/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/pR5vp8.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/JnWRUT/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/3CyC1h.jpg

31 hour radar loop for Buffalo. Absolutely mindbogglingly persistent LES band.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmEsuVhn2rA#t=14

Speaking of the Buffalo event, up to 60" reports from trained spotters. That's exceptional for the middle of November, but they've definitely seen bigger Lake Effect events in DJF.

The crazy thing is that they are only going to have about a 10-15 hour break before round 2 starts tomorrow evening for them. Some areas could come close to 100" if the band sets up over the same area which looks very possible. That's definitely exceptional for any time of year.

From what I understand, though, most of their really big lake effect events have come early in the cold season. Reason being, it's the clash of cold air and relatively warm lake water that creates the massive precipitation. Once the lakes get really cold and eventually freeze to one extent or another, you don't get the really big lake effect as much.

Mid November is pretty early to see totals in the four to five foot range. The lakes are warm, but the airmasses riding over them are not typically as cold as what we're seeing now. The bigger the contrast, the bigger the potential for snowfall. December and January are the really big months for Lakes Erie and Ontario at least. And the airmass we're seeing now is more typical of December or January...

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Great idea Richard! Perhaps rename the thread for better direction?

 

If you can think of one better let me know. .... It's in the broader "Western Discussion" section. Were this section narrower like it had been more originally, what I've entitled it might be a little more clear. 

 

... But with some, people posting here (and to a thread named similarly each month.), I'm thinking, others should be able to catch on to its main intent fairly easily. Plus, why shouldn't the "Mountain West" and people from the "California" section, also be able to post things happening "elsewhere" relative to where they are, I figure. 

 

To be clear, for anyone perhaps in the dark as to just what this thread is all about, of course its main purpose is to provide a place to post events and occurrence, shorter term conjecture, forecasts, perhaps of interest to people either whether in, or tuning in to check what's going on in the PNW, but going on "Elsewhere". Or otherwise looked at, not more particularly related to the PNW, if still of potential interest weatherwise more generally. And then with this idea more general, one region's weather being "relatable" more generally to another's, whatever other region's weather being relatable to what may happen more here. .. These ideas, with this thread maybe, I'm thinking, working to perhaps both, narrow the wider variety of different ideas covered in, type of inputs posted to the PNW's main "General" thread monthly, while also allowing for more focus being placed on main observations, reports, and other ideas weather and climate focused more immediately relating to what's going on there.

 

.. Stated at various times and in different ways within the main "General" thread monthly for the PNW, more personally, I've found the broader variety and inclusion ofto my view both more figuratively, and even more literally where considering the weather and climatejust about everything under the sun, posted to that thread, a bit much, .. in line with what Fred has pointed to as the main parameters / intent, of that thread, I've posted quite a bit there in effort to persuade people more there, to appreciate those parameters. But with the ever-changing "grey area" potential of the idea, I've decided to try a more proactive idea here. With this thread.

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New snowfall forecast for tonight through Friday. Shows 24-30" for the exact same area that just got 5 feet yesterday.

 

This one won't be as insane as yesterday's, but keep in mind this map showed 2-3 feet for yesterday's snowstorm . . .

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Absolutely insane pictures from Eastern. The fact that there was no snow there 48 hours ago is just ridiculous.

 

B20prThIcAAxBO-.jpg

 

B20mNXXCIAAC8UW.jpg

 

B20fQgUIIAELNVb.jpg

 

http://i57.tinypic.com/2zybzf8.png

 

http://i59.tinypic.com/orjiwx.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Wow...ugh I want some of that

At what point does it become too much? I'd imagine being literally trapped in your home would start to get old pretty quickly. Hard to enjoy it much when it takes you 20 minutes just to get to tunnel your way to the end of your own driveway.

 

That said, I'm still dying to experience something like this at least once in my life.

 

Going to be some absolutely ridiculous pictures come Friday if the same areas get 2-3 more feet of snow as forecasted.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I've gotten close to 2 ft in a night. It got old fast.

Last time I got over 2ft in one night was in February 2010..so it's been awhile. That month delivered 7 feet in 12 days...Buffalo is getting 7 feet in 48hrs. I want some. :rolleyes:

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At what point does it become too much? I'd imagine being literally trapped in your home would start to get old pretty quickly. Hard to enjoy it much when it takes you 20 minutes just to get to tunnel your way to the end of your own driveway.

 

That said, I'm still dying to experience something like this at least once in my life.

 

Going to be some absolutely ridiculous pictures come Friday if the same areas get 2-3 more feet of snow as forecasted.

I love extreme weather and I'm retired for now..so I don't care, haha. Looked similar around here in 2009-10, but those snows occurred over a two week period..I can't imagine getting all that in 24hrs.

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You can barely see the house on the other side of the cul-de-sac! That is some intense snow

Unfortunately I took those pics with an old flip phone...so they pretty much suck :lol:

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Lake Erie is pretty D**n warm right now. With the easterly flow following the length of the lake, this was the perfect setup for extended bouts of heavy snow.

 

.. Certainly some of it Fred. ... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/laketemps/laketemps.php

 

.. Plus the main general pattern flow and direction at the time. - 141119 0000z satsfc na-epac.gif

 

Again, Anything else from anybody else.?

 

(Not a weather "analysis", enthusiast. ?)

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Firefighters trying to get to an elderly woman who called and said her furnace went out.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/pww1iuu73/buf9.png

 

Your image isn't showing up your me (at least.) here Tim. What file type is it. ?  

(edit: .. things showing up more now at this point.)

 

Otherwise, .. Well "saddle up", and "get goin'". What're ya waitin' for. ?

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Your image isn't showing up your me (at least.) here Tim. What file type is it. ?

 

Uploaded through postimage.org... might have originally been a simple .png file.

 

When you quoted me... the image showed up again for me.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/GOES-12-2100.jpg

So what's up with the "round 2" consensus / outlook "bbk". ?

 

The crazy thing is that they are only going to have about a 10-15 hour break before round 2 starts tomorrow evening for them. Some areas could come close to 100" if the band sets up over the same area which looks very possible. That's definitely exceptional for any time of year.

 
.. Anyone. ?

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Uploaded through postimage.org... might have originally been a simple .png file.

 

When you quoted me... the image showed up again for me.

I'm running an "iMac" (JR.)(2009, fat in the middle of what you might find on the Mac side, tuning into to view what you post image wise.) .. So you may want to rethink your distribution choice.

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Seems like there are going to be a lot of roof collapses with another 2-3 feet on top of all that.

 

The new LES band is already getting going out over the lake.

 

And here's the Bills stadium. They're suppose to play a game there Sunday!

 

B20ViVhCQAEjrgz.jpg

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Seems like there are going to be a lot of roof collapses with another 2-3 feet on top of all that.

 

The new LES band is already getting going out over the lake.

 

And here's the Bills stadium. They're suppose to play a game there Sunday!

 

B20ViVhCQAEjrgz.jpg

 

 

And it will probably be raining and 50+ degrees there by then.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Do you have, or are you seeing .. any "analysis". ?

 

(So, somebody drop up some "main forecast discussion" already.)

It's an extremely difficult thing to forecast because the global models don't pick up on the small scale features like LES very well at all.

 

Really hard to tell how strong the band will be or exactly where it will set up. And just a couple miles can make a HUGE difference like we learned yesterday when 3-4 miles made the difference between 60" and 3".

 

It's fascinating stuff!

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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What about more "this evening", even more presently, as per "bbk's" post yesterday. ?  @

Upper air temps are again falling over the area in the wake of a weak system today (that ironically shut off the heavy Lake Effect snow and replaced it with light synoptic snowfall) and flow is turning back to SSW over Lake Erie right now which is creating a long fetch over the length of the lake to get Lake Effect going again.

 

This should create another ploom of Lake Effect moving into the Buffalo area in a few hours and it should really get cranking early tomorrow morning. Looks like the heaviest snow will fall during the day tomorrow again just South of Buffalo where they could pick up 2 feet in a 12-15 hour period and near 3 feet total.

 

Here's the updated NWS forecast map:

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/gfemaps/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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-
This > http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/GOES-12-0000.jpg .. should update in a few moments. -@

(.. with "Refreshing". Of important note perhaps.)
 
Yesterday's image, same hour same scope. Showing the Lakes (position.), along with things more in general, better.
 
141119 00z Goes12-IR.jpg .. With "static" of the image routed to above. 141120 00z Goes12-IR.jpg

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It's an extremely difficult thing to forecast because the global models don't pick up on the small scale features like LES very well at all.

 

Really hard to tell how strong the band will be or exactly where it will set up. And just a couple miles can make a HUGE difference like we learned yesterday when 3-4 miles made the difference between 60" and 3".

 

It's fascinating stuff!

 

Seems like, if "Cliff Mass" were "out there", nearer to the Great Lakes, .. that he'd rig up something "model-wise" that would perhaps be a bit better at the idea. .. And someone should be working on it probably otherwise. 

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Seems like, if "Cliff Mass" were "out there", nearer to the Great Lakes, .. that he'd rig up something "model-wise" that would perhaps be a bit better at the idea. .. And someone should be working on the idea probably otherwise. 

They definitely have higher resolution models for that very purpose out there too. I've seen some images from them the last few days, but do not know where to access the full new runs as they come out.

 

From what I understand though even the high-res models struggle quite a bit with specific placement and strength of the lake effect bands just because they are so small scale. No model can nail a forecast down to the mile.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Unfortunately it seems like the extreme nature of this event may have prevented any accurate snowfall measurements from within the heaviest band.

 

There were measurements of 50+ inches at Noon yesterday and it snowed at 3-5" per hour for another 7-10 hours after that, yet the highest actual measurement I have seen so far is 65". I have no doubt the hardest hit areas got 75"+ but it just wasn't possible to accurately measure with the strong winds, compaction, and the fact that people were literally trapped in their homes.

 

It's possible this thing was record breaking and we may never know.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I live in a lake effect area here in Salt Lake City. Although what we see here is nothing like what happens over there, on occasion there can be 2-3 feet of lake effect in the foothills here. Last winter I saw a storm with 8" of LES as my peak.

 

Anyway I can vouch for how hard it is to forecast. It is extremely difficult to pin down the location and models are USUALLY incorrect on the exact placement ahead of time. We have a LES event coming up this weekend for my area so it will be fun to see what happens.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Lighting starting to show up in the new Lake Effect band. It's actually the only lighting in all of North America right now!

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?lang=en

 

Right now the flow is SW so the band is along the Northern edge of Lake Erie in Ontario, but it will be sliding East into Buffalo over the next several ours and should stall out there.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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