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Westerns Take on the Buffalo Snow Event of 2014


richard mann

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Interesting summary of events on Wunderground -

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2863

 

The things that jumped out at me are:

 

1) Its very unusual to get coast to coast monthly record cold in November. From -19F in Redmond to -27F in Casper to 14F in Charlotte. That's an epic pattern which doesn't happen all that often even in the heart of winter.

 

2) With 60"+ totals this is possibly the most extreme Lake Erie lake effect snowstorm on record. All of the greater totals in LES history have come from Lake Ontario, which has higher terrain on the lee side to maximize the snowfall totals.

 

3) The great LES snowstorm of November 14-15, 1900. Also an Arctic blast into the PNW with that longwave pattern like this year. Although in that case the PNW blast followed the LES event by a few days instead of the other way around. Spokane hit -10F and Vancouver WA posted 33/13 with the cold peaking around the 20th-21st.

 
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-
.. Still looking at this idea fellas (and Ladies, if there are any tuned-in here).
 
> http://theweatherfor...f-2014/?p=43252   (post 24 above.)

.. You know, the main "whys" and "wherefores". (?)
 
http://theweatherfor...f-2014/?p=43252   (post 29.)

 

Upper air temps are again falling over the area in the wake of a weak system today (that ironically shut off the heavy Lake Effect snow and replaced it with light synoptic snowfall) and flow is turning back to SSW over Lake Erie right now which is creating a long fetch over the length of the lake to get Lake Effect going again.

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It takes Global Warming to get Lake effect snow in November in the Buffalo area. :D (There was an article written in the Business Insider that said Global Warming is to blame for Lake effect snow in November)

http://www.businessinsider.com/buffalo-6-feet-of-snow-tuesday-photos-2014-11

 

.. More pre-storm. If with images along with comments attached as updates.

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This event appears to be over for the Buffalo metro area.

Still dropped another 2-3 feet on the southtowns..as expected.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
626 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

STORM TOTALS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING FOR THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EVENT...WHICH STARTED WEDNESDAY EVENING.

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ERIE COUNTY...
WALES CENTER 37.0 345 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 W HAMBURG 36.5 457 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
ANGOLA 33.0 337 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA
HAMBURG 31.5 452 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST AURORA 27.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ORCHARD PARK 23.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ALDEN 18.5 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
3 WSW ELMA 13.8 608 PM 11/20 COCORAHS
4 NW ALDEN 12.0 429 PM 11/20 NWS EMPLOYEE
LANCASTER 11.0 500 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 8.1 425 PM 11/20 ASOS

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
WATERTOWN 8.0 409 PM 11/20 SOCIAL MEDIA

...WYOMING COUNTY...
COWLESVILLE 27.0 600 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO
ATTICA 23.0 200 PM 11/20 AMATEUR RADIO

$

THOMAS

 

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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  • 2 weeks later...

-
What's up with this, Right. ? .. Keep reading.  
 
.. Of course at different points within this thread when it had been more active and with the main event focused on here having been actually taking place more, I'd invited whomever to submit or point to different ideas / elements appreciable, more analytical (analysis focused.) having worked to have contributed to this event-circumstance's having been brought about.  @
 
And with this idea, also of course, a few ideas along this line were submitted. 

Posts nos. 25 .. 29, 68 ... 41, 81 above.
 
.. With materials that I've generated accessible here below I've worked to point to my own thinking more analytical and focusing on some different elements more at the synoptic level and where looking at both colder air's, set with main moisture's part played in and in my view having worked to have contributed to along with supported this event circumstance. ...
 
$ ... Along with my own views generated here, here accessible following is a post-event Summary of the event generated by the NWS Buffalo, NY WFO -  http://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1415 stormc.html  (Note additionally with checking the main site-page accessible here above, that there were in fact two other LES events preceding this one more well focused on, more nationally.)
 
Please feel free to either whether or both comment on or add to what I've said here. General text, post event assessment, images, whatever. 
 
My own general analysis. 
 
 With a new and fresh round of main and more primary cold having begun to move steadily more south daily back on the 10th, this with its having been caused to move more directly south through the 13th, .. and with colder air's otherwise where looked at more longitudinally also at the same time relatively slow movement more eastward more on the 14th and with where looking more forward begun to pick up its pace east gradually but steadily more daily, in effect working to limit its spread more south, …
 
.. With the gradual transition of the broader patterning supporting the event, mainly the lesser extent of main colder air more south while at the same time having shifted from more meridional to more zonal, significant moisture had been able to move into position to have become entrained to meet strong cold air mass having moved to a more limited extent south. 
@

The ECMWF +00 hrs. initialization 850-500mb graphic, animated daily from the 10th through the 21s of November.  141110-141122 @12z 850-500hPa t+000vt   video quality / larger view
 
Here following accessible, is an animation that I've generated showing the main WV picture and setup, from the 10th through the 21st of November. And with this view and timeframe, the more basic both potential, along with more specific contribution of main moisture to the stronger accumulation of snow in and around the Buffalo area both leading up to and during the main event there.

141110-21 wv na

Plus the main IR for the same scope, from the 16th at 12z through the 21st.
141110-21 ir na
 
And the main Goes-E scope IR for from the 10th through the 21st.
141110-141121 Goes-E IR

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  • 7 years later...
  • 1 month later...

I’ll never forget that 2014/15 winter. Started off dull/boring then went nuclear in February with several of the most ferocious arctic fronts I’ve ever seen.

This was the snow squall associated with the Valentine’s Day arctic front. After this followed a night of severe winds and temps plunging below 0°F on cold advection alone.

 

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I took my own video of that squall (below), but chickened out when that first 60+mph gust hit and started blasting snow into the house.

Wish I’d stayed and filmed because it got much crazier after that. There was a 3-4 minute period where winds probably didn’t drop below 55mph.

Gusts were the highest since the 2012 derecho/until the March 2018 windstorm locally. Probably passed 70mph because my tree-obstructed anemometer recorded 66mph. Man I wish I could relive this.

 

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