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MJO/LR Forecasting Thread


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Guest daniel1

For one it's pretty atypical behavior for warm ENSO. Secondly...if the MJO behaves like the ECMWF is indicating we could easily see cold weather in the NW again before New Years. Maritime Continent is usually good for us.

I think it will reemerge into phase 7-8 by late dec
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I think it will reemerge into phase 7-8 by late dec

 

Welcome Daniel! I'm in agreement with this. The RMM index tends to lose the OLR signal as we approach the central to eastern Pacific. The MJO has also been trailing a CCKW over the Maritime Continent, but as the 2 waves separate from each other, the "noise" causes the the RMM index to send the MJO into the COD. Just because the RMM index loses the signal, definitely doesn't mean the MJO isn't propagating through the Pacific. The RMM index will either catch onto the MJO once the noise is out of the picture, or it will remain as a weak wave as it typically does towards the Western Hemisphere. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/NmAO7NJ.gif

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This will be interesting to watch.  I can't imagine the ECMWF being so far off, but who knows.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm on mobile so won't be typing a whole lot, but wanted to update this thread briefly. I hate to say it, but I still don't see any signs of cold in the near future, but I pretty much wrote off December before it even started.

 

As Phil has mentioned many times, the RMM plots cannot be trusted currently for tracking the MJO. The MJO is alive and well over the Pacific, regardless of the RRM index bringing it into the COD. Reason being, a CCKW has detached from the MJO which were in tandem for a while over the MC. The CCKW is now well into the western Hemisphere, while the MJO has just pushed out into the Pacific. RMM index's use OLR alongside upper and lower level winds to track the MJO. As the MJO propagates towards the western Hemisphere, it loses it's OLR signal, often resulting in missed MJO events over the central to western Pacific.

 

Jim has mentioned the Euro MJO reemerging over the MC, and the only explanation I can come up with is the convective phase of the CCKW, which is heading towards the IO currently, is projecting onto the RMM forecast while the MJO loses its OLR in the Western Hemisphere, leaving the strongest OLR signal over the MC region down the road.

 

MJO activity is still fairly weak in December as a whole, but increases from here on out through the winter. Our next time frame for coldost likely won't be until a new MJO wave develops and shifts over the IO/MC region.

28.gif

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The 3 contributors which make up the RMM index's aren't lined up currently = Muddled MJO signal. Notice the upper level winds (u200) which still has a great handle on the current MJO wave. OLR signal dies easily, but upper level winds remain

 

bigmack - Is there a site where we can see these images updated, or is this a one time image?  Thanks

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http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/current/rmm/

 

Scroll down to "RMM by variable"

 

Fantastic stuff!  Now I get it.

 

It is kind of interesting how the OLR has not been on board for this El Nino at all.  From what I understand a warm ENSO event should have enhanced convection over the ENSO regions thus suppressing the OLR.  The enhanced convection is what usually fooks up our weather pattern in a Nino winter.  This season the OLR has not been suppressed.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weirdest Niño ever? Could be a candidate..Hadley Cells/H-WIR screams Niño, but the convective scheme is really lacking..and that's kind of the crux of ENSO feedback, so...yeah.

 

This could possibly be due to:

 

1) Off-Equator convective interference

2) IO buoyancy/convection (anti-nino)

3) CCKW interference (degradation of coherence)

4) Shallow WPAC H/C tower

 

What's the culprit? Most likely the -QBO forcing on Rossby Wave amplitude/lapse rates within the upper convective sigmas: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0342.1?journalCode=atsc

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How bizarre to have such full blown Ninoesque weather patterns while the tropical Pacific OLR is full blown Ninaish.  The strong positive OLR anom centered around 180 would do any Nina proud.

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Models are really beginning to converge on another major MJO wave emerging later in the month.  Should be in excellent position for us by New Years or so.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Models are really beginning to converge on another major MJO wave emerging later in the month. Should be in excellent position for us by New Years or so.

I'm really curious to see where this goes. The "major MJO wave" you see is actually due to the real MJO wave weakening over the Western Hemisphere and a Kelvin Wave pushing towards the Eastern Hemisphere. The KW is projecting onto the RMM index as an MJO wave, but may have similar implications in the end. This is new to me honestly

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Changed the title of this thread because I want to start looking at other factors besides tropical forcing for LR forecasts. A few posters on the Accuwx forums are big on using the BSR/TR for their forecasts, and tend to do quite well. The following image shows a strong ULL over the Sea of Okhotsk which is to the west of the Bering Sea. It's said that what happens in the Bering Sea, will correlate to the Eastern US ~18-22 days later. Using that info, we can take locations to the west of the Bering Sea, and correlate them to the west. The Sea of Okhotsk would correlate to the west in general. In the image, you'll not only notice the ULL over the said location, but you'll also notice heights rising into the Bering Sea, which would be indicative of a cold west/ warm east scenario. The image is from the 21st of this month + 20 days = 10th January. Let's see how it plays out. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/egJIPqF.jpg

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I don't see a cold west/warm east pattern at all, honestly. I believe the progression going forward favors a -EPO/-NAO during the 1st half of January, followed by a transition to a +PNA during the 2nd half of January, which will confine most of the colder anomalies to locations east of the Mississippi River.

 

The PV also looks to put up quite a fight as the SSW will start with a wave-1 response..so it might take until mid-January to take it down given the barotropic initialization allows elasticity to make a play at structural retention..so, yeah, need to watch that..

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I don't see a cold west/warm east pattern at all, honestly. I believe the progression going forward favors a -EPO/-NAO during the 1st half of January, followed by a transition to a +PNA during the 2nd half of January, which will confine most of the colder anomalies to locations east of the Mississippi River.

 

The PV also looks to put up quite a fight as the SSW will start with a wave-1 response..so it might take until mid-January to take it down given the barotropic initialization allows elasticity to make a play at structural retention..so, yeah, need to watch that..

 

Not saying it will happen, just looking at different techniques :)

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Changed the title of this thread because I want to start looking at other factors besides tropical forcing for LR forecasts. A few posters on the Accuwx forums are big on using the BSR/TR for their forecasts, and tend to do quite well. The following image shows a strong ULL over the Sea of Okhotsk which is to the west of the Bering Sea. It's said that what happens in the Bering Sea, will correlate to the Eastern US ~18-22 days later. Using that info, we can take locations to the west of the Bering Sea, and correlate them to the west. The Sea of Okhotsk would correlate to the west in general. In the image, you'll not only notice the ULL over the said location, but you'll also notice heights rising into the Bering Sea, which would be indicative of a cold west/ warm east scenario. The image is from the 21st of this month + 20 days = 10th January. Let's see how it plays out. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/egJIPqF.jpg

What do those indicies stand for? I am guessing the BSR is Bearing Sea something. Thanks and good info.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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What do those indicies stand for? I am guessing the BSR is Bearing Sea something. Thanks and good info.

You're correct. Bering Sea Rule. BSR is what happens in the Bering Sea will correlate to the CONUS 18-22 days later. The typhoon rule states that once a typhoon recurves, a trough hits the CONUS 6-10 days later. It's also said that often times pressure systems in Japan correlate to the CONUS 6-10 days later as well.

 

No denying the fact that the upcoming timeframe will resemble the mid November timeframe

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No doubt the last MJO wave is officially dead now and even the U200 never made it into octant 8.  Totally bizarre to have an MJO wave more robust in Nina friendly territory than Nino friendly considering we have warm ENSO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not saying it will happen, just looking at different techniques :)

 

Good stuff.  Obviously we saw what happened in November with the massive low in the Bering Sea.  Since the low described today is west...perhaps that will reflect in a slightly different outcome this time.  Will be interesting to see what pans out.

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Good stuff.  Obviously we saw what happened in November with the massive low in the Bering Sea.  Since the low described today is west...perhaps that will reflect in a slightly different outcome this time.  Will be interesting to see what pans out.

 

Appreciate it! The BSR seems to have a fairly high accuracy rate, just always been typically associated with the East. The guys over at Accuwx have been working hard at utilizing the BSR to the best of their abilities. Here is a US map overlayed on top of their corresponding locations in the Bering Sea. Quite interesting 

 

http://i.imgur.com/g34ujxD.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Where to begin.... Going to cover the current state of the MJO, why I feel our chances are better in Jan vs this month, and why the MJO is cycling in a La Nina type pattern, referencing the Walker Cell and Pacific MJO disruption.

 

First off, the MJO is currently pushing through the eastern IO and towards the MC, which is beautifully shown in the visual below. Note the twin low pressure systems (LP/HP is mirrored south of the equator), which indicates the upward/convective phase of the MJO is directly to the east. A simplified version of the MJO is also posted below to help out visually

 

 http://i.gyazo.com/6f12d46e5e4c13ef6df10dd12c933773.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/kMWOdbi.jpg

 

The MJO once again is in a favorable location for PNW cold, but just because the door is open doesn't mean the cold will come in unfortunately. Granted, as I'm typing this, it's in the 20's, feels like the teen's, and a strong north wind is howling. Just because the models took away the blast we were hoping for, doesn't mean the MJO hasn't been a huge benefit so far this season in determining our windows of opportunity.

 

As we progress throughout winter, the MJO plays a more significant role in our weather as it truly "wakes up" in a sense. Not only does it's overall amplitude increase,  it's overall duration increases as well. Given this, I believe the next go around with the MJO should result in better potential for the PNW.  

 

http://i.imgur.com/p4lptQO.gif

 

 

 

As many have noticed, a reference has been brought up to the Nov cold snap. The progression actually has many similarities....

 

http://i.imgur.com/CsNH8B7.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/zeYAc8p.gif

 

Looking at the top image, you'll notice that the areas of blue shading represent convection, while the areas of yellow shading represent suppression. The solid red lines are associated with the MJO wave, which you can easily spot out during the mid-late November time frame. I had to do some photoshop work, but I combined the 2014 OLR anomalies with the new 2015 forecast anomalies to demonstrate that the wave will be very similar to the previous one. The MJO as of late has been initiating just west of 90E, which is around the central Indian Ocean (phase 2/3), and have been weakening just west of the dateline (phase 6/7). The fact that the MJO hasn't been roaming around in the central Pacific and western Indian Ocean is the reason for the continued cold snaps we've seen lately. Phases 4-6 are considered La Nina phases, while 8-2 are considered El Nino phases, with phases 3/7 being transitional phases. When the MJO is centered over the MC, in an ideal situation, we see a -PNA/-EPO/+NAO pattern, which consists of a blocking ridge over the Pacific, trough over the west, and a ridge over the east. As the convection associated with the MJO propagates into the west Pacific, we see an extension of the jet occur, forcing the -PNA ridge over the west coast. This in turn creates a +EPO due to the formation of an Aleutian low, which creates the stormy and atmospheric river setups we've already experienced. These 2 polar opposite setups have been occurring much quicker this season due to the MJO only focusing its attention in phases 2/3-6/7. However, there are also other variables at play of course, which can alter the overall configuration. The +PDO also entices an extended jet due to the cool SST's over the western and central Pacific promoting low pressure development. 

 

With that said, the reasoning as to why the MJO has been cycling in a La Nina type circulation is due to a unique Walker Cell setup. The Walker Cell, or Walker Circulation, is a model of the air flow throughout the tropics. Typically during an El Nino, the relaxed trade winds allow warm water to travel eastward, which causes moist air to rise in the lower levels over the pacific creating upper level divergence. To the west and east of the upper level divergence, the air cools and dries, thus sinking back down to the lower levels. The low level westerlies beneath the sinking air over the Pacific continue to push water toward the upward phase of the WC (Walker Cell), creating a full circulation. La Nina conditions mean the warm pocket of water is located around Maritime Continent, with the upward phase of the WC also being located in the same area. I probably did a horrible job at explaining it in words, but a visual will help out. The whole reason the MJO is in a more La Nina circulation this season is due to the WC also resembling a La Nina circulation. The upper level divergence of the MJO is what is responsible for the thunderstorm activity it produces, and when the MJO propagates into upper level convergence, it weakens the MJO's structure, resulting in a break down. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/h1rQlx3.jpg

 

I'll post some final thoughts tomorrow.... time to get some sleep!

 

Final thoughts:

 

While we may not have scored quite as nicely as we would have liked this go around, I believe we have one more solid shot that will be as good as any, if not better. If tropical forcing continues on the path we've seen so far, this current wave should push over the Pacific and weaken/die around phase 6/7 during mid month. As the wave progresses east, we should see the PNA ridge shift over us (+PNA), the jet stream strengthen and extend, and the mean trough will shift over the east, resulting in a El Nino type pattern. Once a new wave fires up over the IO sometime around the second half of Jan (looks like the 15th-20th at this point), I'm expecting to see a gradual shift to La Nina conditions once again. Quick disclaimer... this could all change given a SSWE igniting a drastic change in the overall tropical forcing regime :)

 

Compliments of @webberweather...

http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/US-Winter-Monthly-Temps-DJF-El-Nino-Placement-Intensity-878x1024.jpg

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Great post, NBM. I've noticed people on a couple other forums commenting recently on how we've moved into more La Nina-like forcing in the tropics since the fall. Definitely good to see in a neutral/weak ENSO year. And like last winter, the -EPO tendencies seem very persistent.

 

I remain hopeful for you guys to score a good snowstorm/more cold air at some point this winter, hopefully this month.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Great post, appreciate the update.

 

Regarding your Walker Cell composites, I'd include a larger ENSO sample w/ a full DJF aggregate, rather than just December 2009 & December 2010. This is because Walker cell strength fluctuates on relatively short timescales due to internal factors, as well as on multi-year scales due to external factors, independent of ENSO forcing, which operates on a much lower frequency.

 

I mention this because, for example, December 2009 was more of a Niño/+Walker (strong) configuration..January 2010 flipped to more of a Niño/-Walker (weak) configuration. Also, it's important to note that the Walker Cell does not behave in the manner it did back in the 70s-90s era due to the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells (observed since the mid/late 1970s). So I'd only use years after 1998 in my aggregate.

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Excellent post newbigmack.  You do a good job of presenting your thoughts in a well thought out and organized manner.  Keep up the good work.  It's a shame that posts like this garner less attention than the run of the mill post on the 300 hour GFS.

 

The questions I would have are.....was there something during the fall that would have given us a clue that the walker cell behavior was going to be more nina-like for Dec?  And do we expect it to remain nina-like through the winter?

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Great post, appreciate the update.

 

Regarding your Walker Cell composites, I'd include a larger ENSO sample w/ a full DJF aggregate, rather than just December 2009 & December 2010. This is because Walker cell strength fluctuates on relatively short timescales due to internal factors, as well as on multi-year scales due to external factors, independent of ENSO forcing, which operates on a much lower frequency.

 

I mention this because, for example, December 2009 was more of a Niño/+Walker (strong) configuration..January 2010 flipped to more of a Niño/-Walker (weak) configuration. Also, it's important to note that the Walker Cell does not behave in the manner it did back in the 70s-90s era due to the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells (observed since the mid/late 1970s). So I'd only use years after 1998 in my aggregate.

 

I think you mean Nina to Nino in 2009-10...but of course, that was a strong Nino year. 

A forum for the end of the world.

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I think you mean Nina to Nino in 2009-10...but of course, that was a strong Nino year.

No, stronger Walker Cell in Dec '09, weaker in Jan '10.

 

http://catchmypicture.com/DzsNwM.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/zCTea0.jpg

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Great post, NBM. I've noticed people on a couple other forums commenting recently on how we've moved into more La Nina-like forcing in the tropics since the fall. Definitely good to see in a neutral/weak ENSO year. And like last winter, the -EPO tendencies seem very persistent.

 

I remain hopeful for you guys to score a good snowstorm/more cold air at some point this winter, hopefully this month.

 

Thanks for the kind words. -EPO has definitely been a theme this winter, don't see much reason for that to change at this point. 

 

 

Great post, appreciate the update.

 

Regarding your Walker Cell composites, I'd include a larger ENSO sample w/ a full DJF aggregate, rather than just December 2009 & December 2010. This is because Walker cell strength fluctuates on relatively short timescales due to internal factors, as well as on multi-year scales due to external factors, independent of ENSO forcing, which operates on a much lower frequency.

 

I mention this because, for example, December 2009 was more of a Niño/+Walker (strong) configuration..January 2010 flipped to more of a Niño/-Walker (weak) configuration. Also, it's important to note that the Walker Cell does not behave in the manner it did back in the 70s-90s era due to the poleward migration of the Hadley Cells (observed since the mid/late 1970s). So I'd only use years after 1998 in my aggregate.

 

The Walker Cell is still a totally new topic to me honestly. I still have plenty to learn, but figured I could use what I have learned to demonstrate the La Nina type tropical forcing we've seen thus far. Thanks for the info though, good to know for future reference :)

 

Excellent post newbigmack.  You do a good job of presenting your thoughts in a well thought out and organized manner.  Keep up the good work.  It's a shame that posts like this garner less attention than the run of the mill post on the 300 hour GFS.

 

The questions I would have are.....was there something during the fall that would have given us a clue that the walker cell behavior was going to be more nina-like for Dec?  And do we expect it to remain nina-like through the winter?

 

Thanks prime. I'm much more of a visual learner, so throwing pictures and illustrations together is something I enjoy, even if my post have more visuals than actual writing. As far as the walker cell behavior, one reason I've seen discussed is the warm pool in the IO. This warm pool helps to "pull" the WC further west than it would typically be located in an El Nino, which in the end, works out in our favor.

 

Another great post! Thanks newbigmack.

 

Much appreciated :)

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Where to begin.... Going to cover the current state of the MJO, why I feel our chances are better in Jan vs this month, and why the MJO is cycling in a La Nina type pattern, referencing the Walker Cell and Pacific MJO disruption...

Excellent post and learned a lot from it. Most of it made sense but some I still have to re-read to grasp. Great analysis and look forward to how it all plays out. Again, thank you so much!!!! :)

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I received a dusting (if you can even call it that) of snow at the end of last month, which was about 2 weeks after the initial blast of cold mid month. The models are starting to show signs of this quick hitting trough around the 8th/9th, and I see no reason to believe it won't verify based on the Typhoon Rule. It wasn't anything impressive the last go around, and I doubt it will be this time either, but at least it's something to watch. Not on my CPU right now, but if anyone would like to see what I mean by Typhoon Rule, I can post it a bit later on. Let me know :)

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Some models including one GFS based model and the ECMWF suggest the current MJO wave will move very slowly and could be in region 5 for quite some time. A nice window of opportunity for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some models including one GFS based model and the ECMWF suggest the current MJO wave will move very slowly and could be in region 5 for quite some time. A nice window of opportunity for us.

This event really looks to progress the same as mid-end of Nov. The comparisons above show exactly what I mean. I'll be posting some TR maps when I get home that I'm sure you'd find interesting.

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Wouldn't surprise me if the MJO wave maintains itself through a full cycle this time..-QBO is still dominating the export field, but I suspect the SSW/BDC may allow the wave to break through the wall.

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So what's the outlook for the next few weeks now?

 

 

Using that info, we can take locations to the west of the Bering Sea, and correlate them to the west. The Sea of Okhotsk would correlate to the west in general. In the image, you'll not only notice the ULL over the said location, but you'll also notice heights rising into the Bering Sea, which would be indicative of a cold west/ warm east scenario. The image is from the 21st of this month + 20 days = 10th January. Let's see how it plays out. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/egJIPqF.jpg

 

The above image, which I posted back on the 16th shows a low pressure system positioned close to where we'd like to see for a trough in the PNW. This was using the BSR, which correlates to the US 18-22 days later. Forecast was from the 21st+(18-22) days =  Jan 8th - 12th. We can now use the TR (Typhoon Rule) to help verify the BSR once we get closer. The BSR/TR are also able to help verify MJO based forecasts. Considering tropical forcing will shift to the West Pacific around the ~10th or soon after, our window is about over at that point in my opinion. There is a system on the 8th-9th that's worth watching, but after that, the PNA ridge will shift over the west, or just off the coast, while the mean trough position shifts to the east. As the MJO pushes further into the Pacific, the jet stream roars over the Pacific resulting in an Aleutian low, returning us to the stormy and atmospheric river setup we saw earlier this month. The current wave should die off around the dateline (phase 6/7), then return to the western Indian Ocean sometime around the 20th +/- a few days. This allows the Pacific jet to relax and a pattern reset to take place. Once we see the new wave push over the Maritime Continent, that's when our next chance will be. To give a time frame would probably be foolish of me due to extrapolating something that shouldn't be extrapolated in the first place, but I'd say keep an eye on early Feb for a return to cold and hopefully snow this time around. There has been lots of talk regarding a SSWE, which definitely plays a role on tropical forcing. I'm not knowledgeable of the subject however, so any interference by the SSWE could throw off this forecast greatly =P

 

 

Don't mind the big image... but I wanted to share because it's a great visual of the Typhoon Rule

 

http://i.imgur.com/0cL6Oru.gif

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East coast based forums are speculating whether or not the MJO will propagate into phases 7/8/1 this go around, due to the fact that those are favorable phases for cold in their location. Based off previous events and current configurations, I believe that once again we'll see the current wave die around phases 6/7 and reemerge over the western IO shortly after mid month. In the following image, the upper level convergence is apparent, which is acting as a wall against the eastward propagating MJO. This convergence is directly associated with the La Nina'ish Walker Cell we've see this year so far, which shows no signs of letting up currently. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/EmIHdBL.gif

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Would you elaborate on your chart? I'm not sure what its showing.  Does blue represent easterlies anomalies?

Of course, sorry about that. The blue represents westerlies actually (divergence), which can be associated with a convective regime. The yellow represents easterlies (convergence), which is associated with a suppressed regime. The MJO is made up of divergence in the upper levels, which produces convective thunderstorms. As the wave propagates and runs into the upper level convergence, the environment is no longer supportive of thunderstorm/convective activity, which typically will significantly weaken the wave.

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You can thank the dominant -QBO/low relative HC intensity for the elongated Walker Cell variance. Problem is these regimes are tough to maintain..so any break in the mass transfer/export fields will remove most longitudinal inhibition.

 

I'll give the current MJO wave a 40% chance to break the barrier set by the QBO.

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