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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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2 hours ago, St Paul Storm said:

Latest model runs lifting the heavier axis of snow a bit father north. Now reaching parts of the TC. Liking the trends this morning. Good chance at reaching the higher end of the forecasted amounts. 

Looks like Ramsey County has been dropped to 3-5"

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...holding steady for N IL and the Lower Lakes region...it does appear that the wave weakens as it heads farther east but is slow to exit the region and hangs back some precip over the area which allows for farther accumulation.  This system is loaded with precip.  Snowfall totals for N IL bumped up a bit more and possibly due to colder 850's/2m temps.  I did notice that the 2m temps don't get above 30F for the duration of the event for Chicago and nearly 30+ hours of NE winds off the lake.  This is shaping up to be one of those golden storm opportunities that tap into multiple ways for maximum snow potential into NE IL.  For example, this run shows it snowing for 30+ hrs into NE IL and allows for maximum Lehs/LES. I understand this is just 1 run but the consistency is keeping me excited about the potential.  Been a while since many of us around here enjoyed a legit winter storm.

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00z Euro Control...

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00z EPS...trending towards a more widespread significant winter storm from the Plains to the Lakes...#sharethewealth

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Great trends. Poster child storm wrt sharing the wealth. Some say GHD-2 also showed weakening east at this range but in the end held together. Models giving my office every reason to not go Watch tho as usual. Kinda like 11-26-18 with Bliz Warn to Chicago then WWA for mby.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I had family visiting so I've been kind of playing catch up and it's surreal to see models showing such crazy amounts 2 days out. Things look to be falling into an 8"+ consensus for SE Neb except for the GFS. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This may be the best ICON map I have personally seen for this area since it became a global we look at/include in tracking. This is stout at 10:1 which seems to be the target ratio (mean) for the event as a whole. The Operationals continue to paint Warning level totals, but ofc the Ensemble Means look paltry by comparison. My office likes to pin storm numbers down way in advance for some reason that escapes me while LOT will take more of a wait and see approach. Much better way to go imo.

 

20210123 12z ICON h77 Snowfall.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, jaster220 said:

This may be the best ICON map I have personally seen for this area since it became a global we look at/include in tracking. This is stout at 10:1 which seems to be the target ratio (mean) for the event as a whole. The Operationals continue to paint Warning level totals, but ofc the Ensemble Means look paltry by comparison. My office likes to pin storm numbers down way in advance for some reason that escapes me while LOT will take more of a wait and see approach. Much better way to go imo.

 

20210123 12z ICON h77 Snowfall.jpg

Happy for you, Jaster. You’ve been patiently waiting for what seems like forever! I hope this pans out for you! 

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24 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

I had family visiting so I've been kind of playing catch up and it's surreal to see models showing such crazy amounts 2 days out. Things look to be falling into an 8"+ consensus for SE Neb except for the GFS. 

SE Nebraska Peeps look to be fully in this game and maybe even end up doing better than SMI Peeps. Really surprised y'all weren't following this more closely from the beginning. Has potential to be a doozy there imho. GFS is not that bad over there either, especially the GEFS.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

SE Nebraska Peeps look to be fully in this game and maybe even end up doing better than SMI Peeps. Really surprised y'all weren't following this more closely from the beginning. Has potential to be a doozy there imho. GFS is not that bad over there either, especially the GEFS.

Yeah I've been checking the board but hardly looked at models myself. Somebody mentioned this yesterday but I'd be surprised if OAX doesn't post watches with the afternoon package. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 minute ago, St Paul Storm said:

Happy for you, Jaster. You’ve been patiently waiting for what seems like forever! I hope this pans out for you! 

Thx SPS. Not so sure about the "patiently" part, lol. But yeah, waiting 3 years for a legit Watch to Warning event seems like forever tho I do realize others in our Sub have been there too. Not even sure at this point if we will get into a Watch with my office's history. Will easily be the first decent snow here this entire season tho, so there's that to look forward to as Iowa goes under a state of emergency and Chicago rakes. Oh well, we had 08-09 and 13-14 and I have no right to be selfish, it's just human snow weenie nature I guess. 🤣

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I hate my city in the winter.  Through 384 hours, there's four near misses to the north and south. 

Isn't KC in the decent snow swath on many if not most models? I thought it was. Maybe I need to get out a map

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Man this is looking like a heck of a storm out here. Could even be 12-15” in the max band. Not sure that’s CR/IC but probably just south of us as we are starting to reach a pretty tight track consensus. That said, gusts to 40-45 mph seem likely for most of the event, and combined with heavy snow, should allow blizzard criteria to be met for many in Iowa/perhaps N IL as well. Assuming watches will be hoisted in the afternoon package? Looking more and more like the highest impact winter event in DVN’s CWA since 11/25/18. 

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Well this is a change of tone lol

Quote

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1100 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

MNZ002-003-017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ039-049-052-053-232300-
Norman-Clay-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-South Clearwater-Hubbard-
West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-
Wadena-Grant-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead,
Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca,
Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake,
Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge,
Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning,
Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman,
Barrett, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman,
Rutland, and Wahpeton
1100 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

...Accumulating Snowfall Today...

Moderate snowfall rates across the region will lead to snowfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Travel impacts are possible due to
slick roads and reduced visibility.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx SPS. Not so sure about the "patiently" part, lol. But yeah, waiting 3 years for a legit Watch to Warning event seems like forever tho I do realize others in our Sub have been there too. Not even sure at this point if we will get into a Watch with my office's history. Will easily be the first decent snow here this entire season tho, so there's that to look forward to as Iowa goes under a state of emergency and Chicago rakes. Oh well, we had 08-09 and 13-14 and I have no right to be selfish, it's just human snow weenie nature I guess. 🤣

good luck jaster. Looks like I will be on the northern fringe of this one, though any subtle shifts north could put me in the game for more substantial amounts

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7 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Omaha update from a bit ago. I’m about 8 miles north of I80. I’d definitely feel better if I was further south in southeast Nebraska

I'm about half a mile NW of I-80. Game over for me 😆. But I think we should be fine. 12z Euro looks to be coming in hot once again, though bullseye is around Nebraska City/Plattsmouth. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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