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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Does wave 2 reach mby on 12z Euro? I know that map is both systems combined. 

james the Euro only shows 1" for Waterloo and surrounding areas from wave 1.  So subtract 1" from the map and that is what wave 2 shows for you.  Definitely gives you some snow this run. 

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Just now, bud2380 said:

james the Euro only shows 1" for Waterloo and surrounding areas from wave 1.  So subtract 1" from the map and that is what wave 2 shows for you.  Definitely gives you some snow this run. 

Thanks yeah I was just breaking down both waves. Looks like I get a few inches from the Monday system this run.

 

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Kuchera has 22-23" for Omaha/Lincoln through Wednesday. Southern OMA surburbs and southwards over 2 feet. Not even posting because that's just outrageous, but I think we should have a double digit snow depth by Wednesday. GFS/NAM still giving me pause though. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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25 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Michigan gets hosed on the Euro.  The precip shield collapses before reaching them.

True, but like Jaster saids: that same scenario was forecasted w GHD-2 and then eventually, it held together eastward and walloped SMI. Still plenty of time for changes (2 more days). So far, i am in the 3-6" range, which is totally accepted by me.

 

Btw: "I think" sampling starts tomorrow AM as that piece of energy moves onshore finally.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGEN NationalWeather Service Omaha/Valley NE

1255 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

NEZ052-053-066>068-089-090-240300-

/O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0002.210125T1200Z-210126T1200Z/

/O.CON.KOAX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210124T0900Z/

Douglas-Sarpy-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Gage-Johnson-

Including the cities of Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista,Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, Beatrice, Tecumseh,and Sterling

1255 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST

SUNDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE

MONDAY NIGHT...

 

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation.

  Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and icea accumulationsof a light glaze. For the Winter Storm Watch,heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska.

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48 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Hate to throw around Kuchera bc it's probably overdone, but.....

1611662400-bFmy20wabeY.png

I would hate to be sitting in Norfolk right now. 😄

 

37 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Kuchera has 22-23" for Omaha/Lincoln through Wednesday. Southern OMA surburbs and southwards over 2 feet. Not even posting because that's just outrageous, but I think we should have a double digit snow depth by Wednesday. GFS/NAM still giving me pause though. 

It's been noted that the WxBell Euro Kuchera algorithm seems off (too generous) compared to others. Confirms my statements earlier this season that it's "an over-promising liar" map. Which has been especially horrible to experience due to all the borderline thermals around here.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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31 minutes ago, Niko said:

True, but like Jaster saids: that same scenario was forecasted w GHD-2 and then eventually, it held together eastward and walloped SMI. Still plenty of time for changes (2 more days). So far, i am in the 3-6" range, which is totally accepted by me.

 

Btw: "I think" sampling starts tomorrow AM as that piece of energy moves onshore finally.

Southern wave has 2000 more miles til it's fully onshore (as of 12z this am), and the N piece is over data-sparse far N territories in Canada so there may yet be some tweaks pending. I'm really hoping one of them is to get back to the system maintain strength for us on the eastern end of the Sub as we saw the past several days via the globals.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Surprised to see OAX put out the watch so early, I figured it'd be around 4. The totals seems to be on the low side though only 5-10" in the heaviest area. Still plenty of time to increase totals and for models to shift, so it makes sense. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Just now, snowstorm83 said:

Surprised to see OAX put out the watch so early, I figured it'd be around 4. The totals seems to be on the low side though only 5-10" in the heaviest area. Still plenty of time to increase totals and for models to shift, so it makes sense. 

Just means they have high confidence it will happen, not that they have totals nailed down. Not sure what the min is for a Watch out there, but anything above that shows even more confidence imho. You should do well.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So I'm in line for somewhere between 1-20" of snow, fantastic

Read on OAX's AFD that they expect snow ratios just under 10:1, so 10:1 maps provide a general good guidepost for this event. Total precipitation map from the 12z ECMWF is attached, ending midday Thursday. Subtract about an inch in Omaha for tonight's event.

ecmwf total precip.png

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58 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I’m buying my sister in law’s used snowblower. Bc of this storm😛

$150 for one that’s $800 brand new and works fine is worth it I think!

Which model did you get?

Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter


 


78.1"  Total snowfall


February Snowfall 32.5"


City salt usage  : 12,211 tons


Days of measurable snow  : 40

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1 minute ago, dubuque473 said:

Which model did you get?

Don't mean to hijack the thread, but Airens are very good. More solid frame in 2 stage. Stay away from tank tracks.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Southern wave has 2000 more miles til it's fully onshore (as of 12z this am), and the N piece is over data-sparse far N territories in Canada so there may yet be some tweaks pending. I'm really hoping one of them is to get back to the system maintain strength for us on the eastern end of the Sub as we saw the past several days via the globals.

Thanks for the sampling update!

Yes, expect to "hopefully" see some changes, starting tomorrow, once the energy is onshore. That is what I have been waiting for the whole time.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15 minutes ago, Niko said:

Thanks for the sampling update!

Yes, expect to "hopefully" see some changes, starting tomorrow, once the energy is onshore. That is what I have been waiting for the whole time.

 

Just heard that this mornings data from weather balloon sites in the southwest did not make it into 12z modeling so expect changes to occur as soon as all that Data is injested into future model runs

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Looks like it never completely stops snowing in Southeast Neb through the end of the run as wave 3 moves in. 18z GFS will be very interesting to see if there's a shift. Also ripping pretty hard rn, probably around 3/4". Should easily get 1-2" today. 

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Local met Rusty Lord with the big time damper on the mood

6CBC8369-8C34-41D9-98E5-B82D9CC7D8CE.jpeg

God he is terrible. He's not consistently conservative for any reason other than to own the weenies.

I'll never forget the 2/23/2019 blizzard where he wrote an essay ranting on social media weather profiles and then forecasted, like, an inch as a direct counter to them.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

God he is terrible. He's not consistently conservative for any reason other than to own the weenies.

I'll never forget the 2/23/2019 blizzard where he wrote an essay ranting on social media weather profiles and then forecasted, like, an inch as a direct counter to them.

If you're gonna be petty, might as well be consistently petty! 😂

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