CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Looks like qpf is amped up from 00z, but track is very similar. Maybe slightly further north, especially on the north end of the snow shield. I would agree completely with your assessment. Just a little more north as I study previous runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Does wave 2 reach mby on 12z Euro? I know that map is both systems combined. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: I would hate to be sitting in Norfolk right now. Oh no. Anyway... 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks a tad north i think.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 I’m buying my sister in law’s used snowblower. Bc of this storm $150 for one that’s $800 brand new and works fine is worth it I think! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z Euro through 102 hours at 10:1 ratio. I’d take these numbers in a second. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, james1976 said: Does wave 2 reach mby on 12z Euro? I know that map is both systems combined. james the Euro only shows 1" for Waterloo and surrounding areas from wave 1. So subtract 1" from the map and that is what wave 2 shows for you. Definitely gives you some snow this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, bud2380 said: james the Euro only shows 1" for Waterloo and surrounding areas from wave 1. So subtract 1" from the map and that is what wave 2 shows for you. Definitely gives you some snow this run. Thanks yeah I was just breaking down both waves. Looks like I get a few inches from the Monday system this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Kuchera has 22-23" for Omaha/Lincoln through Wednesday. Southern OMA surburbs and southwards over 2 feet. Not even posting because that's just outrageous, but I think we should have a double digit snow depth by Wednesday. GFS/NAM still giving me pause though. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Michigan gets hosed on the Euro. The precip shield collapses before reaching them. Uff. Punched in the gut. Still keepin hopes up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Sharp cutoffs on N and S side. Any little wobble could make a big difference in those areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 As we recover from the Euro, snowflakes are beginning here with wave 1. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 25 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Michigan gets hosed on the Euro. The precip shield collapses before reaching them. True, but like Jaster saids: that same scenario was forecasted w GHD-2 and then eventually, it held together eastward and walloped SMI. Still plenty of time for changes (2 more days). So far, i am in the 3-6" range, which is totally accepted by me. Btw: "I think" sampling starts tomorrow AM as that piece of energy moves onshore finally. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGEN NationalWeather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1255 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 NEZ052-053-066>068-089-090-240300- /O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0002.210125T1200Z-210126T1200Z/ /O.CON.KOAX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210124T0900Z/ Douglas-Sarpy-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Gage-Johnson- Including the cities of Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, La Vista,Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City, Beatrice, Tecumseh,and Sterling 1255 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and icea accumulationsof a light glaze. For the Winter Storm Watch,heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 48 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Hate to throw around Kuchera bc it's probably overdone, but..... I would hate to be sitting in Norfolk right now. 37 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: Kuchera has 22-23" for Omaha/Lincoln through Wednesday. Southern OMA surburbs and southwards over 2 feet. Not even posting because that's just outrageous, but I think we should have a double digit snow depth by Wednesday. GFS/NAM still giving me pause though. It's been noted that the WxBell Euro Kuchera algorithm seems off (too generous) compared to others. Confirms my statements earlier this season that it's "an over-promising liar" map. Which has been especially horrible to experience due to all the borderline thermals around here. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 The watch for counties not in the advisory are saying 5-10 inches Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, Niko said: True, but like Jaster saids: that same scenario was forecasted w GHD-2 and then eventually, it held together eastward and walloped SMI. Still plenty of time for changes (2 more days). So far, i am in the 3-6" range, which is totally accepted by me. Btw: "I think" sampling starts tomorrow AM as that piece of energy moves onshore finally. Southern wave has 2000 more miles til it's fully onshore (as of 12z this am), and the N piece is over data-sparse far N territories in Canada so there may yet be some tweaks pending. I'm really hoping one of them is to get back to the system maintain strength for us on the eastern end of the Sub as we saw the past several days via the globals. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Surprised to see OAX put out the watch so early, I figured it'd be around 4. The totals seems to be on the low side though only 5-10" in the heaviest area. Still plenty of time to increase totals and for models to shift, so it makes sense. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, snowstorm83 said: Surprised to see OAX put out the watch so early, I figured it'd be around 4. The totals seems to be on the low side though only 5-10" in the heaviest area. Still plenty of time to increase totals and for models to shift, so it makes sense. Just means they have high confidence it will happen, not that they have totals nailed down. Not sure what the min is for a Watch out there, but anything above that shows even more confidence imho. You should do well. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 So I'm in line for somewhere between 1-20" of snow, fantastic Read on OAX's AFD that they expect snow ratios just under 10:1, so 10:1 maps provide a general good guidepost for this event. Total precipitation map from the 12z ECMWF is attached, ending midday Thursday. Subtract about an inch in Omaha for tonight's event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 58 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I’m buying my sister in law’s used snowblower. Bc of this storm $150 for one that’s $800 brand new and works fine is worth it I think! Which model did you get? Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 As of now DVN has me down for another 1-3” Monday night. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, dubuque473 said: Which model did you get? Don't mean to hijack the thread, but Airens are very good. More solid frame in 2 stage. Stay away from tank tracks. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Have a light dusting now, starting to stick on roads Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, dubuque473 said: Which model did you get? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 ...and now it’s pouring sleet yikes 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Southern wave has 2000 more miles til it's fully onshore (as of 12z this am), and the N piece is over data-sparse far N territories in Canada so there may yet be some tweaks pending. I'm really hoping one of them is to get back to the system maintain strength for us on the eastern end of the Sub as we saw the past several days via the globals. Thanks for the sampling update! Yes, expect to "hopefully" see some changes, starting tomorrow, once the energy is onshore. That is what I have been waiting for the whole time. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, Niko said: Thanks for the sampling update! Yes, expect to "hopefully" see some changes, starting tomorrow, once the energy is onshore. That is what I have been waiting for the whole time. Just heard that this mornings data from weather balloon sites in the southwest did not make it into 12z modeling so expect changes to occur as soon as all that Data is injested into future model runs 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Coming down pretty good atm (east lincoln) 20210123_140309.mp4 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 View from backyard 20210123_140511.mp4 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Ended up changing back to snow here. That was weird. Tiny flakes, hardly anything on the grass even though road is covered. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z NAM looks like it's stepping towards Euro so far. Also ripping now with much bigger flakes! Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 (Still snowing) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Full run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looks like it never completely stops snowing in Southeast Neb through the end of the run as wave 3 moves in. 18z GFS will be very interesting to see if there's a shift. Also ripping pretty hard rn, probably around 3/4". Should easily get 1-2" today. 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 Local met Rusty Lord with the big time damper on the mood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Local met Rusty Lord with the big time damper on the mood I can understand conservative forecasting but this flies in the face of not only model guidance but the WSW ... almost like he took the latest ECMWF run and pushed it south for some reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z RGEM. Looks like it may have ticked north a little more with the heaviest snow. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Local met Rusty Lord with the big time damper on the mood God he is terrible. He's not consistently conservative for any reason other than to own the weenies. I'll never forget the 2/23/2019 blizzard where he wrote an essay ranting on social media weather profiles and then forecasted, like, an inch as a direct counter to them. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted January 23, 2021 Report Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said: God he is terrible. He's not consistently conservative for any reason other than to own the weenies. I'll never forget the 2/23/2019 blizzard where he wrote an essay ranting on social media weather profiles and then forecasted, like, an inch as a direct counter to them. If you're gonna be petty, might as well be consistently petty! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.