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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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1 hour ago, Tony said:

Just heard that this mornings data from weather balloon sites in the southwest did not make it into 12z modeling so expect changes to occur as soon as all that Data is injested into future model runs

Appreciate the info Tony!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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16 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

God he is terrible. He's not consistently conservative for any reason other than to own the weenies.

I'll never forget the 2/23/2019 blizzard where he wrote an essay ranting on social media weather profiles and then forecasted, like, an inch as a direct counter to them.

I commented on his Facebook post saying literally none are showing this low of totals, and he said he thinks this zips on by but if it doesn’t he can “always up the totals tomorrow”.🙄

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NWS Omaha

 

Quote

Focus then shifts to a major winter storm that is expected to
impact the region Monday. Models remain in very good agreement
highlighting snow developing by daybreak Monday, mostly
along/south of Interstate 80 and continuing through early Tuesday.
With an expected closed low surface track to the south of Kansas
City, this puts portions of our forecast area in the favored track
for heavy wet snow, especially as a trowal/deformation zone sets
up from northeast KS through southeast NE, northwest MO and
southern IA. Current snowfall forecasts remain consistent from 6
to 10 inches, and in fact, some models suggest 10 to 13 inches
or even higher appear possible. After coordination with other NWS
offices and WPC earlier today, we did issue a winter storm watch
12z Monday through 12z Tuesday for heavy snow, along/south of
Interstate 80. The Interstate corridor has the highest potential
for uncertainty as the range could be 3-5 or 5-8, but would be
leaning toward the higher end amounts this time for south
periphery of the LNK/OMA/CBF metro areas. Our official peak forecast
range will mention 7-13" near Falls City. Snowfall rates Monday
afternoon could easily be 1-2" per hour. There is some
indication that there could also be marginal mid level
instability, and if that occurs, thudnersnow couldn`t be ruled out
south of I80 as well. Northeasterly winds will increase to 15 to
30 mph, with higher gusts.

 

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NWS Hastings siding with the GFS saying it has been more consistent. What?  The Euro and Canadian have hardly changed. They did say the Euro shows much heavier snow but are going with GFS. GFS has been garbage in this area all winter. Well, we will see which wins out. I’d typically side with King Euro. 

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DMX talking TSSN--

Regardless of the FZDZ/PL potential, the forcing is strong enough
to produce very heavy snow and cool the column to below freezing
throughout its depth. Thus, intense snowfall rates at times are
likely Monday afternoon into the evening during the height of the
frontogenetical forcing and lift. This will really impact the
evening commute from DSM southward. Cross section from around
Denison to Columbia, MO, shows enough negative EPV for CSI release
and thus leading towards the potential for TSSN at times over
southern Iowa. Plus, the strongest frontogenetical forcing between
650-600mb, but evident in 750-700mb and 850-800mb, over southern
Iowa/northern Missouri, only helps the snowfall intensity. The
caveat with all of this is the surface high pressure to the north
providing the aforementioned dry air entrainment and leading to a
sharp gradient of heavy snow to just trace amounts. A sharp
gradient is likely even countywide and thus ranges are likely a
bit drastic but viable. The trend has been that the heaviest band
continues to shift northward over the past couple of model runs,
but only by a half of an Iowa county or so. Regardless, the DSM
metro and along Interstate 80 corridor looks to be the northern
edge of the heavier snowfall and thus included this area within
the Winter Storm Watch. The consistency of the heavy snow is
likely to be very sticky and could stick to powerlines and trees
leading to the potential for power outages with the strong winds
associated with the system.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Looks like a more eastward movement in terms of the heavier snows.......

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210123/17d5f1cfc5e6657875d8a6ee78645433.jpg&key=2e13ef19e0e35744498ee0ce5b4f26985b94b40aa2cc218e6d9510f9009f1818

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I would've gone one tier further north with the watches if it were me. Pretty conservative usage which I don't really understand for an event with a ceiling as high as this one. The majority of guidance gets warning snows up into that tier of counties. 

Though perhaps they add a new watch for those counties overnight and the current watch is for the areas that could go under a blizzard warning? Not sure, just spitballing here. Though we will be flirting with or exceeding blizzard criteria in the areas of heaviest snow. Winds are marginal at 35-45mph, but snowfall rates will compensate for this in the visibility department.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

I would've gone one tier further north with the watches if it were me. Pretty conservative usage which I don't really understand for an event with a ceiling as high as this one. The majority of guidance gets warning snows up into that tier of counties. 

Though perhaps they add a new watch for those counties overnight and the current watch is for the areas that could go under a blizzard warning? Not sure, just spitballing here. Though we will be flirting with or exceeding blizzard criteria in the areas of heaviest snow. Winds are marginal at 35-45mph, but snowfall rates will compensate for this in the visibility department.

Surprised DMX issued watches this early. Event is still  39-42 hours out. They were forced to when CWA W and S did. Watches will likely be expanded at a later time, I am sure.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just now, Grizzcoat said:

Surprised DMX issued watches this early. Event is still  39-42 hours out. They were forced to when CWA W and S did. Watches will likely be expanded at a later time, I am sure.

I agree with you. Realistically its probably a threat/confidence thing. Right now watches are really only in the areas that are consistently modeled to receive more than a foot on guidance. Though from a wording perspective, I would've added those additional counties just to really make sure there's no conflicting messaging.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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I understand being in a "watch" is good sign and all, but in reality means just a good sign. But it's best to follow the trends in guidance and NWS will eventually get there. Blizzard Warning here a few days ago-- NEVER in anything before it- no watch etc. So keep the faith.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Jim Flowers, former Omaha TV meteorologist, with a Facebook video. Says ensembles are wrong. Thinks they have a bias. Says look for heaviest snow to move north. He thinks the Canadian has been the best. Says he might be missing something, but in his opinion the snow shield is forecasted too far south. Will be interesting. Not saying I agree one way or another, just sharing more information. 

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56 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

NWS Omaha graphical thinking... which makes me kinda have to eat my words some on Rusty's graphic, mainly since Omaha's in a 2-7" range here as opposed to the 4-8" WSW wording... strange

StormTotalSnow_OAX.png

Anywhere from a basic boderline nuisance event to a major snowstorm in Lincoln, got it lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Jim Flowers just put another video about the Euro and possible dry air getting wrapped into the storm in Southeast Nebraska. Very detailed and fascinating. If you have Facebook and are interested, you might check them out. 

I think that video has been out for a few hours

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Actually looks like much of what the GFS shows for Nebraska is Tues/Wednesday, though Monday totals are slightly higher. Looks like a more significant bump north with the GEFS, OMA/LNK look to be in the 6-9" zone for Monday. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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