Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Alright folks, I think its time to whip up a thread for our next storm system that is being advertised on the models for this upcoming weekend into the early part of next week. During the previous 2 LRC cycles, this system was a signature storm and one that produced a lot of precip, esp the 2nd stronger piece that the operational models are flashing. There is a lot of blocking in place during this period which will make tracking this system interesting. That's why I believe we are seeing some good runs and bad mixed into the bunch. With that being said, the ensemble trends are what I'm looking at this point in time and the EPS has been steadfast developing the 2nd wave which fits the LRC quite well. Let's dive into the data... 00z EPS mean pretty much shows the 1st wave delivering up North and then spreads the mean snow shield farther south. In fact, I think it did tick S a bit from previous run. Actually, I just checked and it did quite a bit esp across the lower lakes region since 00z 19th run. 00z Euro Control... I'd like to comment on the LRC and why I see support on the models that the 2nd stronger wave should develop into a widespread system with ample moisture. Back in LRC cycle #1, it produced a signature storm that had a massive comma shape trowal feature on radar Oct 28th-29th (http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=15&year=2020&month=10&day=28&hour=12&minute=0) During LRC cycle # 2 it produced a SLP that tracked along a frontal boundary right through the S MW/Lower Lakes region... To cap off this post, I am encouraged to see the uptick in moisture from the EPS as it fits this pattern in my opinion... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 6z GFS with a strong second piece very similar to what hit Oklahoma in the previous 2 cycles. Fingers crossed on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 To follow up my previous post 0z CMC very similar only further north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 New GFS similar to the original only a little further south with the snow Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 This blocking is currently massive! What concerns me is the suppression and that was my main issue from the start (couple of days ago ). Hopefully, it can lift further north, otherwise, it will be a miss (heaviest snow stays south for some peeps on here, including myself). Fingers crossed. Still several more days to track this potential. FWIW: Some of the ensembles show some good hits for SEMI, but some are blah. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 I'm squarely in the shaft zone on the GFS. It's been consistent run after run of having the heavy snow cutoff right along highway 30 in eastern Iowa. Nearly 5" for CR and only 1.5" in Iowa City. I live 10 miles south of the eastern Iowa airport, which is where the 4.8" amount is listed and the snow totals drop by about 75% in that distance. Just nudge south 30 miles GFS, you know you want to. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Also, here is the map at 10:1 so this is a high ratio event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 GFS is still suppressed and weak with wave 2, more than other models. Update: Wave 3 hits Kansas, then dies. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z GFS with 3 waves. Kinda weird 12z ICON looks to have a better handle on 2nd wave imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Canadian remains a best case scenario for my back yard. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 The GFS is on its own with the very suppressed and weak wave 2. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Kuchera maps from the Canadian. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 UK is better a bit farther south for wave 1, but suppressed for wave 2. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Model mayhem at its finest and of course we will pick what's best for our neck of the woods. Liking the Canadian and hoping it has a better physics wrt the blocking that is in place. At least the 1st wave/over running event on Saturday-Sunday looks to lay down a few inches for many in this forum so will have my eyes set on this one first and worry about early next week as we get closer to it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 I'm hopeful, but it's quite possible I only pick up an inch or two this weekend and then everything else gets suppressed. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Euro quite a bit north with wave 2 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Euro quite a bit north with wave 2 Holy smokes, it's coming in juiced! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 My goodness, this is prob the best share the wealth run all season for many of us along and north of I-80...not only that, this is a SLOW moving cutter and very cold temps in place... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatitdo Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 best op euro run yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z Euro...wave 1 and then both waves... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Euro and Canadian on the same page for at least today. I'm liking this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Euro is still pretty weak with wave 1, but I'll gladly take that if it means wave 2 can come north and amp up. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 For N IL peeps, the RN/SN line is to close for comfort at this range so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic at this range. Here's what I'm thinking about: 1) We have cold air in place 2) NE wind off the lake which can enhance snowfall lakeside 3) Ideal storm track through C IL 4) Slow moving, long duration event (24+ hours) 5) Copious moisture 6) Almost an identical storm track during LRC cycle #2 which I showed in my first post 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 @jaster220, I think you commented on this storm a few days ago...have you been manifesting on it?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Tom said: For N IL peeps, the RN/SN line is to close for comfort at this range so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic at this range. Here's what I'm thinking about: 1) We have cold air in place 2) NE wind off the lake which can enhance snowfall lakeside 3) Ideal storm track through C IL 4) Slow moving, long duration event (24+ hours) 5) Copious moisture 6) Almost an identical storm track during LRC cycle #2 which I showed in my first post This can only cut so far so actually liking where we sit right now. Expect bumps south in the future as that has been the case most of this winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Is there a break between wave 1 and 2 on the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: Is there a break between wave 1 and 2 on the Euro? Yes, about 8-12 hours by you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Tom said: Yes, about 8-12 hours by you... Sweet thanks. I'll be in the TC so ill have to watch for best travel home time. I'd love to be up there for wave 1 and be home for wave 2 haha. #selfish 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 21” for CR on the Euro. I’m cool with that 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 24 minutes ago, Tony said: This can only cut so far so actually liking where we sit right now. Expect bumps south in the future as that has been the case most of this winter. Nice looking storm for sure. Get a little more Gulf moisture into this puppy and we could be in for a serious snowstorm...not saying this run is mediocre by any means but lets go Big on this thing...we are definitely due. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Alright, lock in the Euro. We’re done here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 I don't like being in the bullseye this far out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z EPS is a bit farther S with the mean SLP track taking it through S IL/S IN...it's also farther N with the heavy precip shield compared to 00z run last night...trends are certainly becoming our friends for many...for NE IL folks, this is by far one of the best signals all season long for a widespread winter storm....not to mention, but the LEHS signal at this range is eye opening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 15 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z EPS is a bit farther S with the mean SLP track taking it through S IL/S IN...it's also farther N with the heavy precip shield compared to 00z run last night...trends are certainly becoming our friends for many...for NE IL folks, this is by far one of the best signals all season long for a widespread winter storm....not to mention, but the LEHS signal at this range is eye opening. I did forget about lake enhancement as that is definitely a bonus for our side of the pond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Canadian is at least close to the Euro. GFS at least has some overrunning snow. This might be the best chance yet for SWMI to get in on some action this year. Still not getting my hopes up until I see back to back to back runs of consistency. GFS being an outlier concerns me. Will be interesting to see GRR AFD afternoon update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 I will not be greedy with the 20”, I could make do with 17”. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 What does the EPS have for totals on the third wave on the 28th through the OV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 I decided to do a monthly subscription to Pivotal to check out some of their upgraded features. They have Kuchera maps for the Euro and some local views among other things. Here is a sample. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Euro showing potential blizzard conditions with this one. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Everything about this winter sucks here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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