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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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Even if we end up getting a solid hit, this morning's Euro run is likely the best-case scenario and we won't see any additional runs this good.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220, I think you commented on this storm a few days ago...have you been manifesting on it??

Haha. Yeah was gonna bump my post from December?? About this being the one single LRC event that showed promise back then. Can this go big enough to be meet the 98-99 analog? I'm optimistic about our first plowable snow of the season here and remaining hopeful this could go bigger. I will say that driving into work with my car thermo reading 23F mid-afternoon certainly seems like a significant pattern shift/improvement. Even tomorrow's torch has been muted by about 7-8F from earlier predictions. Not gonna lie, I'm allowing excitement to grow.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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DMX's thoughts--- After the warmth today and to a lesser degree tomorrow, colder temperatures and chances for snow return to the area for the weekend and into early next week. The best chance for accumulating snowfall Saturday resides across the northern half of Iowa and into Minnesota where a few inches may be possible and cause some travel hazards. Additional snowfall may linger into Sunday across the same or similar areas before subsiding. Unfortunately,(why they got be like that)?? additional snowfall chances may be quickly on the heels of the weekend chances with another system potentially working snow and a wintry mix into areas of southern and central Iowa Monday. With these events still a few days out, be sure to watch for forecast updates as details continue to come into better focus! Tab3FileL.png?e43062175bbbd69c4850b34334a5f249

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Skilling briefly showed the LR RPM model out to Tuesday and it had a very similar track as the 12z EPS that went through S IL/S IN. I’ve never seen this model go out that far but interesting to say the least.  Very strong winds associated with that particular model run as well.

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Man, the Euro n GFS are in 2 different worlds. The winner is.......???!! Tbh, the GFS has scored b4, just recently earlier in the season iirc, so that kinda concerns me. Its 4 days away, so plenty of time to get this ironed out. Hopefully, it caves towards the Euro.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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GFS has trended a bit toward the Euro with wave 1, although still stronger.  The northern stream trough position is quite a bit different compared to this morning (flatter).

snku_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS is still south with wave 2, but at least going in the right direction.

GFSv16 is actually farther south than the GFS now.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just now, bud2380 said:

Canadian significantly different this run. Still has the solid wave one. But not really a wave 2

Like previous GFS runs, the 00z Canadian digs the northern stream trough farther south into the US, which will suppress anything following wave 1.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another impressive run from the 00z Euro, for mby and for many on here along I-80, you can't ask for a better outcome esp for those of us out east who have been neglected.  There are still a lot of those in the S MW who have been missed and in IN, but that may change for the next one.  Gosh, it's eye candy to see back to back runs showing a major for N IL, including the metro.  The Lehs signal continues to show up as well for NE IL and into SE WI.  Looks like all of S MI stays all SN as the RN/SN mix line creeps up to the border and stops right there.

1.png

 

00z EPS...

2.png

3.png

 

 

00z Euro Control...it takes a very similar track as the Euro Op but a tad farther S across parts of the region near KC where the comma head forms and then heads E through S IL/S IN.  This map is only through HR 120 and doesn't include the rest of the storm across the eastern Sub.

4.png

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Nice write-up from LOT wrt to the Euro/GEFS latest trends...

Quote

The second waves of precipitation may be more impactful as a low
pressure system from the Southern Plains tries to lift northward
toward the Great Lakes. WPC statistical cluster analysis points
toward the strength of an upper-level ridge in central Canada as
the key source of statistical variance among the combined
ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensemble membership. In other words, the strength of
the upper-level ridge in Canada differs among forecast models,
and will determine how far north the low pressure system can
track. Additionally, the cluster analysis shows that individual
model systems are more or less in their own camp. For example, the
CMC/ensemble members keeping the low well south of our area and
the normally trustworthy ECMWF/ensemble members showing path that
would lead to impactful wintry weather to some if not all of
northern Illinois and northwest Indiana (the GFS/ensemble members
fall in between). When looking at ensemble analyses over the past
24 hours (increasing our number of individual ensemble members
analyzed from 90 to 360), the forecast has remained fairly steady
with about 50% of all ensemble members leading to impactful wintry
weather in our neck of the woods (though a very modest trend
upward in precipitation amounts over our area can be noted). Over
the next few days, the upper-level players will be more readily
sampled which should lead to increasingly converging model
solutions. Keep in mind it`s never a bad time to make sure your
winter kit at home or in your car is stocked and ready to go.

 

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Main wave moves in Friday or early Saturday on the west coast, which will determine the true outcome of the second wave. One thing is for sure, this boy has a ton of moisture w it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Another impressive run from the 00z Euro, for mby and for many on here along I-80, you can't ask for a better outcome esp for those of us out east who have been neglected.  There are still a lot of those in the S MW who have been missed and in IN, but that may change for the next one.  Gosh, it's eye candy to see back to back runs showing a major for N IL, including the metro.  The Lehs signal continues to show up as well for NE IL and into SE WI.  Looks like all of S MI stays all SN as the RN/SN mix line creeps up to the border and stops right there.

1.png

 

00z EPS...

2.png

3.png

 

 

00z Euro Control...it takes a very similar track as the Euro Op but a tad farther S across parts of the region near KC where the comma head forms and then heads E through S IL/S IN.  This map is only through HR 120 and doesn't include the rest of the storm across the eastern Sub.

4.png

Euro staying its course last couple runs. Rumors have it that the 6z Euro is identical to the 0z run.

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2 hours ago, james1976 said:

Dear God those maps are incredible. Yes please.

Euro has wave 2 hitting Iowa Monday morning if I'm not mistaken? I'll be heading back from St Paul late Sunday so this would be a perfect scenario for me.

Your dual residency is proving to be quite nice so far this winter!  Things looking pretty good up here for Saturday. MPX holding off on a Watch for now, but that might change if today's model runs stay the course. 

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