Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Even if we end up getting a solid hit, this morning's Euro run is likely the best-case scenario and we won't see any additional runs this good. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Even if we end up getting a solid hit, this morning's Euro run is likely the best-case scenario and we won't see any additional runs this good. NONE of the GFS ensembles has this scenario. Wouldn't count on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 ^GFS is on it's own on the 12z runs so we shall see which models win out. The Canadian has been showing a farther north scenario for a couple runs now and UK has been nudging slightly north with each run. We shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z GFS through 6am Sunday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z ICON looks like its trending towards the Euro, just a little slower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 The new GFS is further south with the first wave here in Iowa. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 hours ago, Tom said: @jaster220, I think you commented on this storm a few days ago...have you been manifesting on it?? Haha. Yeah was gonna bump my post from December?? About this being the one single LRC event that showed promise back then. Can this go big enough to be meet the 98-99 analog? I'm optimistic about our first plowable snow of the season here and remaining hopeful this could go bigger. I will say that driving into work with my car thermo reading 23F mid-afternoon certainly seems like a significant pattern shift/improvement. Even tomorrow's torch has been muted by about 7-8F from earlier predictions. Not gonna lie, I'm allowing excitement to grow. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2021 Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 DMX's thoughts--- After the warmth today and to a lesser degree tomorrow, colder temperatures and chances for snow return to the area for the weekend and into early next week. The best chance for accumulating snowfall Saturday resides across the northern half of Iowa and into Minnesota where a few inches may be possible and cause some travel hazards. Additional snowfall may linger into Sunday across the same or similar areas before subsiding. Unfortunately,(why they got be like that)?? additional snowfall chances may be quickly on the heels of the weekend chances with another system potentially working snow and a wintry mix into areas of southern and central Iowa Monday. With these events still a few days out, be sure to watch for forecast updates as details continue to come into better focus! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2021 Skilling briefly showed the LR RPM model out to Tuesday and it had a very similar track as the 12z EPS that went through S IL/S IN. I’ve never seen this model go out that far but interesting to say the least. Very strong winds associated with that particular model run as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 I like where we sit in southeast Nebraska here as of Wednesday, although I know better than to trust in the models. We all know how things can change in 5-7 days. I sure hope we can cash in but really not trying to get my hopes up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Man, the Euro n GFS are in 2 different worlds. The winner is.......???!! Tbh, the GFS has scored b4, just recently earlier in the season iirc, so that kinda concerns me. Its 4 days away, so plenty of time to get this ironed out. Hopefully, it caves towards the Euro. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just give me 3" at this rate. Cover the ground so this can at least resemble winter here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS is really struggling with the Sun energy. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS has trended a bit toward the Euro with wave 1, although still stronger. The northern stream trough position is quite a bit different compared to this morning (flatter). Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS is still south with wave 2, but at least going in the right direction. GFSv16 is actually farther south than the GFS now. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The new GFS drops 5” for Iowa city and 7” for Cedar Rapids on wave 1. But wave two is south and weak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Canadian significantly different this run. Still has the solid wave one. But not really a wave 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, bud2380 said: Canadian significantly different this run. Still has the solid wave one. But not really a wave 2 Like previous GFS runs, the 00z Canadian digs the northern stream trough farther south into the US, which will suppress anything following wave 1. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 GDPS - wave 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 UK - wave 1 The UK should be suppressed again with wave 2. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro - wave 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro looked less good initially, but it's coming in hot for Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro Kuchera- 4 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Another impressive run from the 00z Euro, for mby and for many on here along I-80, you can't ask for a better outcome esp for those of us out east who have been neglected. There are still a lot of those in the S MW who have been missed and in IN, but that may change for the next one. Gosh, it's eye candy to see back to back runs showing a major for N IL, including the metro. The Lehs signal continues to show up as well for NE IL and into SE WI. Looks like all of S MI stays all SN as the RN/SN mix line creeps up to the border and stops right there. 00z EPS... 00z Euro Control...it takes a very similar track as the Euro Op but a tad farther S across parts of the region near KC where the comma head forms and then heads E through S IL/S IN. This map is only through HR 120 and doesn't include the rest of the storm across the eastern Sub. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 06z ICON trending towards the Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 00z GEFS also took a big step towards developing the second stronger S stream wave... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Nice write-up from LOT wrt to the Euro/GEFS latest trends... Quote The second waves of precipitation may be more impactful as a low pressure system from the Southern Plains tries to lift northward toward the Great Lakes. WPC statistical cluster analysis points toward the strength of an upper-level ridge in central Canada as the key source of statistical variance among the combined ECMWF/GFS/CMC ensemble membership. In other words, the strength of the upper-level ridge in Canada differs among forecast models, and will determine how far north the low pressure system can track. Additionally, the cluster analysis shows that individual model systems are more or less in their own camp. For example, the CMC/ensemble members keeping the low well south of our area and the normally trustworthy ECMWF/ensemble members showing path that would lead to impactful wintry weather to some if not all of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana (the GFS/ensemble members fall in between). When looking at ensemble analyses over the past 24 hours (increasing our number of individual ensemble members analyzed from 90 to 360), the forecast has remained fairly steady with about 50% of all ensemble members leading to impactful wintry weather in our neck of the woods (though a very modest trend upward in precipitation amounts over our area can be noted). Over the next few days, the upper-level players will be more readily sampled which should lead to increasingly converging model solutions. Keep in mind it`s never a bad time to make sure your winter kit at home or in your car is stocked and ready to go. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The GFS is also trending in the right direction with wave 2...last 5 runs below.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The last 5 runs from the GEFS are showing a distinct trend towards a comma head look in the central MW along with a juicier trend. It's def heading towards the LRC and the Euro op. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Dear God those maps are incredible. Yes please. Euro has wave 2 hitting Iowa Monday morning if I'm not mistaken? I'll be heading back from St Paul late Sunday so this would be a perfect scenario for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: The last 5 runs from the GEFS are showing a distinct trend towards a comma head look in the central MW along with a juicier trend. It's def heading towards the LRC and the Euro op. Good sign 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Main wave moves in Friday or early Saturday on the west coast, which will determine the true outcome of the second wave. One thing is for sure, this boy has a ton of moisture w it. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: Another impressive run from the 00z Euro, for mby and for many on here along I-80, you can't ask for a better outcome esp for those of us out east who have been neglected. There are still a lot of those in the S MW who have been missed and in IN, but that may change for the next one. Gosh, it's eye candy to see back to back runs showing a major for N IL, including the metro. The Lehs signal continues to show up as well for NE IL and into SE WI. Looks like all of S MI stays all SN as the RN/SN mix line creeps up to the border and stops right there. 00z EPS... 00z Euro Control...it takes a very similar track as the Euro Op but a tad farther S across parts of the region near KC where the comma head forms and then heads E through S IL/S IN. This map is only through HR 120 and doesn't include the rest of the storm across the eastern Sub. Euro staying its course last couple runs. Rumors have it that the 6z Euro is identical to the 0z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Going to be a fun 24-48 hrs of model hyping on this thread and hoping its a positive hype. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 06z ECM clusters looking mighty fine 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Henry Margusity's model interpretations and nice graphics he's generated. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, james1976 said: Dear God those maps are incredible. Yes please. Euro has wave 2 hitting Iowa Monday morning if I'm not mistaken? I'll be heading back from St Paul late Sunday so this would be a perfect scenario for me. Your dual residency is proving to be quite nice so far this winter! Things looking pretty good up here for Saturday. MPX holding off on a Watch for now, but that might change if today's model runs stay the course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 ICON more south. Euro on an island. Northern Illinois Indiana and Ohio do well. I'll be in Toledo next week for work so maybe I have to chase the snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 06z GEFS...baby stepping... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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