bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z GFS wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The GFS is making progress. The northern trough is gradually being pulled back up into Canada, closer to what the Euro is showing. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Wave 2 on the GFS stays south. The main difference between the Euro and GFS is the SLP placement. The GFS has been showing it running along the Missouri/Arkansas border, where the Euro has it through central MO. So until that resolves, there won't be any agreement in regard to snow placement between the two. Euro is a little stronger as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: The GFS is making progress. The northern trough is gradually being pulled back up into Canada, closer to what the Euro is showing. If you look at the 500mb trough, it is trending away from a flatter wave into a more closed low...another tick N also as it deepens into the 990's... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 57 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said: Your dual residency is proving to be quite nice so far this winter! Things looking pretty good up here for Saturday. MPX holding off on a Watch for now, but that might change if today's model runs stay the course. Haha I know right?! Was literally thinking that earlier 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Well, this looks darn nice..... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Canadian is back north a bit. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 hours ago, Tom said: The last 5 runs from the GEFS are showing a distinct trend towards a comma head look in the central MW along with a juicier trend. It's def heading towards the LRC and the Euro op. That's Tuesday morning right? Isn't that a lot slower by like a day than the Euro tho? Thought this was a Monday event over our way. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z GGEM took a big step towards the Euro...develops a strong SLP tracking through the S MW/OHV... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: That's Tuesday morning right? Isn't that a lot slower by like a day than the Euro tho? Thought this was a Monday event over our way. It's a 24-hr precip accumulation so you have to consider that as well..but ya, its a tad slower as well.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, Tom said: If you look at the 500mb trough, it is trending away from a flatter wave into a more closed low...another tick N also as it deepens into the 990's... Certainly positive trends and that LOT disco nails the issue wrt all the possible scenarios. Models going to dance around like always until the final 48 hrs when sampling is secured. The LRC is going to prove a very useful tool if this comes to fruition. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GGEM took a big step towards the Euro...develops a strong SLP tracking through the S MW/OHV... GEM's going to keep Indiana Peeps dreaming. I'm still thinking I-80 will be the southern cut-off of decent amounts. Doubt it is much south of that line. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro is still by far the furthest north model. The Canadian had a great run yesterday, before flipping back further south. It's still significantly further south than the Euro. And the 00z Euro actually shifted further north from the 12z. So I don't think there is much disagreement of a 2nd wave, simply where it will setup at this point. I'm hoping the Euro holds serve (actually a slight nudge south would be great for me). I still trust it the most at this time frame. Historically the Euro performs very well within 5 days, but certainly has been wrong from time to time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 UK should come north as the northern stream trough gets pulled back up into Canada more this run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 UK is MUCH farther north. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Liking the trends so far today and sitting pretty good I think for most of us. North has been the theme so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Ukie= good sign. It's overall a stingy model when it comes to precip. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 UK 2 3 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Man oh Man on the UK...this could be a Biggie 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Hawkeye said: UK If Euro comes in hot again then we may have something here fellas. Good to have European models on your side. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: UK Throw in some lake enhancement and lake effect and we finally have ourselves a winner 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 GEM,GFS, and ICON have the ULL hitting KC sometime Monday.(Good snow amounts as of today's 12z runs) Temperatures are yet again very borderline and immediately turn warm after the storm. So, another very wet snow should it happen. Still good chance KC will be all rain. We'll see how this trends. Data after this storm still looks very warm relative to averages. KC is going to finish the second month of meteorological winter 6.5-8 degrees above average. I wonder if that has ever happened. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Glad we have the cold in place before these arrive. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro weak with wave 1 over much of Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The Euro has always been weakest with the first wave and it's now even weaker. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Euro going to be south with wave 2. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Further south than 00z for sure, but still looks like it's gonna hit the south half of Iowa hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 SLP track is closer the GFS, shifted significantly south. South of I80 in Iowa gets hammered. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The northern stream is a fair amount more suppressed over the lakes, so the result is this. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 I don't know. Looks like a big hit to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 And West Michigan is out of it. Just as predicted. GFS sniffed it out much quicker. Should have known the Euro was wrong again. It's been trash outside of 3 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 If I get missed to the north by wave one and then missed to the south by wave two, I'm going to be severely disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Gotta love those sharp cutoffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Final totals in Iowa. 14.3" combined, 13" from wave 2 alone for Iowa City. Sign me up please. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stacsh said: And West Michigan is out of it. Just as predicted. GFS sniffed it out much quicker. Should have known the Euro was wrong again. It's been trash outside of 3 days. GFS is not even close to being right. It has been playing catch up for days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Regional view 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 I am anxiously waiting for sampling to start tomorrow or early Saturday. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The northern half of Iowa through southern Wisconsin needs Canada to play ball. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, Stacsh said: And West Michigan is out of it. Just as predicted. GFS sniffed it out much quicker. Should have known the Euro was wrong again. It's been trash outside of 3 days. Looks pretty darn good to me 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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