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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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The GFS is making progress.ย  The northern trough is gradually being pulled back up into Canada, closer to what the Euro is showing.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"ย  ย  ย  '21-22: 27.1"ย  ย  ย  '20-21: 52.5"ย  ย  ย  '19-20: 36.2"ย  ย  ย ย '18-19: 50.2"ย  ย  ย ย '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wave 2 on the GFS stays south.ย  The main difference between the Euro and GFS is the SLP placement.ย  The GFS has been showing it running along the Missouri/Arkansas border, where the Euro has it through central MO.ย  So until that resolves, there won't be any agreement in regard to snow placement between the two.ย  Euro is a little stronger as well.ย ย 

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS is making progress.ย  The northern trough is gradually being pulled back up into Canada, closer to what the Euro is showing.

If you look at the 500mb trough, it is trending away from a flatter wave into a more closed low...another tick N also as it deepens into the 990's...

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57 minutes ago, St Paul Storm said:

Your dual residency is proving to be quite nice so far this winter!ย ย Things looking pretty good up here for Saturday. MPX holding off on a Watch for now, but that might change if today's model runs stay the course.ย 

Haha I know right?! Was literally thinking that earlier๐Ÿ˜‚

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

The last 5 runs from the GEFS are showing a distinct trend towards a comma head look in the central MW along with a juicier trend.ย  It's def heading towards the LRC and the Euro op.

1.gif

That's Tuesday morning right? Isn't that a lot slower by like a day than the Euro tho? Thought this was a Monday event over our way.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)ย ย Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)ย  ย Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9ย Dec: 7.5ย Jan: 31.7 Feb:ย 6.0 Mar: 4.1ย Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"ย  (Harrison):ย 2023-24 = xx.x"ย 

Avg = 45.0"ย  (KDTW):ย 2022-23 = 33.5"ย  ย 2021-22 = 35.6"ย ย ย ย 

Avg = 49.7"ย  (KRMY):ย 2020-21 = 36.2"ย  ย 2019-20 = 48.0"ย  ย 2018-19 =ย 56.1"ย  ย 2017-18 =ย 68.3"ย  ย ย 2016-17 =ย 52"ย  ย ย 2015-16 =ย 57.4"ย  ย ย 2014-15 =ย 55.3"ย  ย ย 2013-14 =ย 100.6"ย (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)ย ย 2012-13 =ย 47.2"ย  ย ย 2011-12 =ย 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

That's Tuesday morning right? Isn't that a lot slower by like a day than the Euro tho? Thought this was a Monday event over our way.

It's a 24-hr precip accumulation so you have to consider that as well..but ya, its a tad slower as well..

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27 minutes ago, Tom said:

If you look at the 500mb trough, it is trending away from a flatter wave into a more closed low...another tick N also as it deepens into the 990's...

Certainly positive trends and that LOT disco nails the issue wrt all the possible scenarios. Models going to dance around like always until the final 48 hrs when sampling is secured. The LRC is going to prove a very useful tool if this comes to fruition.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)ย ย Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)ย  ย Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9ย Dec: 7.5ย Jan: 31.7 Feb:ย 6.0 Mar: 4.1ย Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"ย  (Harrison):ย 2023-24 = xx.x"ย 

Avg = 45.0"ย  (KDTW):ย 2022-23 = 33.5"ย  ย 2021-22 = 35.6"ย ย ย ย 

Avg = 49.7"ย  (KRMY):ย 2020-21 = 36.2"ย  ย 2019-20 = 48.0"ย  ย 2018-19 =ย 56.1"ย  ย 2017-18 =ย 68.3"ย  ย ย 2016-17 =ย 52"ย  ย ย 2015-16 =ย 57.4"ย  ย ย 2014-15 =ย 55.3"ย  ย ย 2013-14 =ย 100.6"ย (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)ย ย 2012-13 =ย 47.2"ย  ย ย 2011-12 =ย 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GGEM took a big step towards the Euro...develops a strong SLP tracking through the S MW/OHV...

gem_asnow_ncus_21.png

GEM's going to keep Indiana Peeps dreaming. I'm still thinking I-80 will be the southern cut-off of decent amounts. Doubt it is much south of that line.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)ย ย Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)ย  ย Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9ย Dec: 7.5ย Jan: 31.7 Feb:ย 6.0 Mar: 4.1ย Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"ย  (Harrison):ย 2023-24 = xx.x"ย 

Avg = 45.0"ย  (KDTW):ย 2022-23 = 33.5"ย  ย 2021-22 = 35.6"ย ย ย ย 

Avg = 49.7"ย  (KRMY):ย 2020-21 = 36.2"ย  ย 2019-20 = 48.0"ย  ย 2018-19 =ย 56.1"ย  ย 2017-18 =ย 68.3"ย  ย ย 2016-17 =ย 52"ย  ย ย 2015-16 =ย 57.4"ย  ย ย 2014-15 =ย 55.3"ย  ย ย 2013-14 =ย 100.6"ย (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)ย ย 2012-13 =ย 47.2"ย  ย ย 2011-12 =ย 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Euro is still by far the furthest north model.ย  The Canadian had a great run yesterday, before flipping back further south.ย  It's still significantly further south than the Euro.ย  And the 00z Euro actually shifted further north from the 12z.ย  So I don't think there is much disagreement of a 2nd wave, simply where it will setup at this point.ย  I'm hoping the Euro holds serve (actually a slight nudge south would be great for me).ย  I still trust it the most at this time frame.ย  Historically the Euro performs very well within 5 days, but certainly has been wrong from time to time.ย ย 

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UK should come north as the northern stream trough gets pulled back up into Canada more this run.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"ย  ย  ย  '21-22: 27.1"ย  ย  ย  '20-21: 52.5"ย  ย  ย  '19-20: 36.2"ย  ย  ย ย '18-19: 50.2"ย  ย  ย ย '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GEM,GFS, and ICON have the ULL hitting KC sometime Monday.(Good snow amounts as of today's 12z runs)ย Temperatures are yet again very borderline and immediately turn warm after the storm. So, another very wet snow should it happen. Still good chance KC will be all rain. We'll see how this trends.ย ย 

ย 

Data after this storm still looks very warm relative to averages. KC is going to finish the second month of meteorological winter 6.5-8 degreesย ย above average. I wonder if that has ever happened.

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The Euro has always been weakest with the first wave and it's now even weaker.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"ย  ย  ย  '21-22: 27.1"ย  ย  ย  '20-21: 52.5"ย  ย  ย  '19-20: 36.2"ย  ย  ย ย '18-19: 50.2"ย  ย  ย ย '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The northern stream is a fair amount more suppressed over the lakes, so the result is this.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"ย  ย  ย  '21-22: 27.1"ย  ย  ย  '20-21: 52.5"ย  ย  ย  '19-20: 36.2"ย  ย  ย ย '18-19: 50.2"ย  ย  ย ย '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

And West Michigan is out of it.ย  Just as predicted.ย  GFS sniffed it out much quicker.ย  Should have known the Euro was wrong again.ย  It's been trash outside of 3 days.ย ย 

GFS is not even close to being right. It has been playing catch up for days

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I am anxiously waiting for sampling to start tomorrow or early Saturday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Areaย 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"ย  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The northern half of Iowa through southern Wisconsin needs Canada to play ball.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"ย  ย  ย  '21-22: 27.1"ย  ย  ย  '20-21: 52.5"ย  ย  ย  '19-20: 36.2"ย  ย  ย ย '18-19: 50.2"ย  ย  ย ย '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

And West Michigan is out of it.ย  Just as predicted.ย  GFS sniffed it out much quicker.ย  Should have known the Euro was wrong again.ย  It's been trash outside of 3 days.ย ย 

Looks pretty darn good to me

imageproxy.jpg

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