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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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5 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Ok, we gotta start praying for a 100 mile shift to the north now. Haha

I'm literally in the screw hole between both waves. Still a few days to go. At least the TC looks decent for wave 1 so im hoping that pans out at least since I'll be up there.

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5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I'm literally in the screw hole between both waves. Still a few days to go. At least the TC looks decent for wave 1 so im hoping that pans out at least since I'll be up there.

Me too. I live between Hwy 63 and Highway 20. In no way would I ever believe someone was going to get 20+ inches anyway, but to miss north and south in a matter of days would really suck.

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Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis

The good news is I will be in Toledo monday!

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9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis

thinking your correct.  just hope we can maintain north side and get some good ratios.  

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

UK

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

GRR talking WWA event after seeing the UK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(j/k)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not saying cuz iam in the pink, but that blend is probably the way to go. Thanks for sharing  Bud!! Keep sharing that one when/if you can.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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My PM Package from NOAA is not too impressed w this storm for my area. Its all up in the air as far as NOAA is concerned:

If there is a current "trend" in model solutions for the 12z cycle,
it would be weighted toward a more southern solution that bypasses
(or brushes) the area in terms of snowfall from the shortwave
eventually tracking into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
Confidence, however, remains low at this point. The trouble with
this will be the sharp gradient that appears will set up on the
northern edge of the snow shield this system will produce as
relatively minor differences in the track with equate to large
swings in potential snowfall accumulations.

 

Note: sampling tomorrow or Sat is key.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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DMX thoughts on the bigger system.

Some light wintry precip may linger into Sunday, but then the atmosphere
quickly reloads as a lead shortwave ejects from the mean western
conus trough. There remains significant differences between the
latest deterministic Euro and GFS both in track and intensity.
GEFS mean leans more toward the more northerly and robust Euro.
PoPs were boosted above the NBM output for Sunday night into
Monday across southern into central Iowa to reflect increasing
confidence in another round of snow moving through. The
significant model spread hinders confidence in possible snowfall
amounts, but moderate to heavy snow is not out of the question.

 

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21 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

DMX thoughts on the bigger system.



Some light wintry precip may linger into Sunday, but then the atmosphere
quickly reloads as a lead shortwave ejects from the mean western
conus trough. There remains significant differences between the
latest deterministic Euro and GFS both in track and intensity.
GEFS mean leans more toward the more northerly and robust Euro.
PoPs were boosted above the NBM output for Sunday night into
Monday across southern into central Iowa to reflect increasing
confidence in another round of snow moving through. The
significant model spread hinders confidence in possible snowfall
amounts, but moderate to heavy snow is not out of the question.

 

More from LOT
So again, to sum it up, it`s increasingly likely
that we`re entering into an active period of wintry weather. Stay
tuned for latest updates, in particular for late Sunday night-
Monday night, which may have the ingredients to potentially make
it largest and most impactful event in at least a couple winters,
if everything comes together.
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Obviously things can change - lots of time left. Maybe it's slowing down also,( I can only see out to HR 90)  but I doubt it. Blocking appears to be winning out too much.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Good amount of moisture in SEMI.....A good stretch from Iowa, Chicago to SMI

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2021_01/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-greatlakes-snow_ge_3-1705600.thumb.png.563059dfbbef5e50b2acf36d295f3044.png

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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47 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro baby steppin south.

1611662400-klEFV7TikaY.png

First off- it seems that 6"+ band is getting thinner and thinner from run to run. Maybe 40 miles wide? Hopefully that trend stops with 00Z. Also- let's just say 18Z Euro happens. Mason City / Grand Forks continue their misery. Unreal how they keep getting missed.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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