Stacsh Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Tony said: Looks pretty darn good to me I'm bitter, I'm just north of all that. And the other models are a bit south yet. Except the south shift to continue. Euro will be further and further south no doubt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, james1976 said: Gotta love those sharp cutoffs Ok, we gotta start praying for a 100 mile shift to the north now. Haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bellona said: Ok, we gotta start praying for a 100 mile shift to the north now. Haha I'm literally in the screw hole between both waves. Still a few days to go. At least the TC looks decent for wave 1 so im hoping that pans out at least since I'll be up there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 This one has a close shave south written all over it. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 long ways to go with this one yet. no need for anyone to throw in the towel. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, james1976 said: I'm literally in the screw hole between both waves. Still a few days to go. At least the TC looks decent for wave 1 so im hoping that pans out at least since I'll be up there. Me too. I live between Hwy 63 and Highway 20. In no way would I ever believe someone was going to get 20+ inches anyway, but to miss north and south in a matter of days would really suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, hlcater said: Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis The good news is I will be in Toledo monday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 I knew that being in the Euro's bullseye yesterday wasn't good! This needs to come back north a bit. But seeing that the Euro came more in line with the other models this run, I don't know. I guess I'll ride the Ukie for now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Will be some interesting AFD's coming out later 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, hlcater said: Oh I’m not. Looking like this is going to be a sizeable storm for someone, though I’m not sure that’s us. If I had to place bets, I’d go Burlington to Gary to Toledo in the max axis thinking your correct. just hope we can maintain north side and get some good ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Bellona said: Me too. I live between Hwy 63 and Highway 20. In no way would I ever believe someone was going to get 20+ inches anyway, but to miss north and south in a matter of days would really suck. South side of Waterloo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: UK GRR talking WWA event after seeing the UK. (j/k) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, james1976 said: South side of Waterloo? Yeah, right along Byrne's Park/Irv Warren golf course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 NWS blend of models for wave 1 And both waves 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Not saying cuz iam in the pink, but that blend is probably the way to go. Thanks for sharing Bud!! Keep sharing that one when/if you can. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Nice to see areas in the GL that have been missed in the range for this storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z GFS Mean both waves 12z Euro Mean both waves 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 The 12z runs weren’t the best looking thing ever, but still a lot of time for this to change - both for better or worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z Euro Control...I'd say about 80% of the members are all showing a widespread 6"+ "share the wealth" snow storm from 12z EPS close up for the Lower Lakes... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 My PM Package from NOAA is not too impressed w this storm for my area. Its all up in the air as far as NOAA is concerned: If there is a current "trend" in model solutions for the 12z cycle, it would be weighted toward a more southern solution that bypasses (or brushes) the area in terms of snowfall from the shortwave eventually tracking into the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night. Confidence, however, remains low at this point. The trouble with this will be the sharp gradient that appears will set up on the northern edge of the snow shield this system will produce as relatively minor differences in the track with equate to large swings in potential snowfall accumulations. Note: sampling tomorrow or Sat is key. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 For those of you a little farther north, you are not out of the heavy stuff by any means. I expect the snow shield to expand as time goes on. Plenty of moisture with this wave and Euro seemed a bit stingy compared to the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Liking those ENS means. Not a bad look for 126 hr window. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 4-8" in the point for Saturday/night....although 3-6" is more likely at this point. Looking at the soundings for 0z Sunday, the DGZ appears to be pretty dang deep. 850s around -10C. This looks like a fluffy snow, something we really haven't seen yet this winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 DMX thoughts on the bigger system. Some light wintry precip may linger into Sunday, but then the atmosphere quickly reloads as a lead shortwave ejects from the mean western conus trough. There remains significant differences between the latest deterministic Euro and GFS both in track and intensity. GEFS mean leans more toward the more northerly and robust Euro. PoPs were boosted above the NBM output for Sunday night into Monday across southern into central Iowa to reflect increasing confidence in another round of snow moving through. The significant model spread hinders confidence in possible snowfall amounts, but moderate to heavy snow is not out of the question. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, FV-Mike said: DMX thoughts on the bigger system. Some light wintry precip may linger into Sunday, but then the atmosphere quickly reloads as a lead shortwave ejects from the mean western conus trough. There remains significant differences between the latest deterministic Euro and GFS both in track and intensity. GEFS mean leans more toward the more northerly and robust Euro. PoPs were boosted above the NBM output for Sunday night into Monday across southern into central Iowa to reflect increasing confidence in another round of snow moving through. The significant model spread hinders confidence in possible snowfall amounts, but moderate to heavy snow is not out of the question. More from LOT So again, to sum it up, it`s increasingly likely that we`re entering into an active period of wintry weather. Stay tuned for latest updates, in particular for late Sunday night- Monday night, which may have the ingredients to potentially make it largest and most impactful event in at least a couple winters, if everything comes together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 18z GFS still not playing ball with wave 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Not surprised Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Icon way south 2nd wave 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, bud2380 said: 18z GFS still not playing ball with wave 2. Continues to hit a brick wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 DVN increased me a bit to 2-4” Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Somewhat expected- 18Z Euro at hr 90 is S and weaker than 12Z. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Obviously things can change - lots of time left. Maybe it's slowing down also,( I can only see out to HR 90) but I doubt it. Blocking appears to be winning out too much. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 had to stop in...atleast its not a near miss... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Somewhat expected- 18Z Euro at hr 90 is S and weaker than 12Z. Color me shocked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z Euro baby steppin south. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Good amount of moisture in SEMI.....A good stretch from Iowa, Chicago to SMI 5 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Appreciate you guys and all the updates. Crossing my fingers on this one's potential. Don't know how I feel on being in the bullseye 3 days out. I have a feeling this thread is going to be on fire the next few days. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 47 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro baby steppin south. First off- it seems that 6"+ band is getting thinner and thinner from run to run. Maybe 40 miles wide? Hopefully that trend stops with 00Z. Also- let's just say 18Z Euro happens. Mason City / Grand Forks continue their misery. Unreal how they keep getting missed. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Icon continues S shift on 2nd wave. Clinton is only one on here ( that I know) that gets accumulation. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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