Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 The ICON is not a top model, but a significant fade back southeast isn't good. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'd expect tonights GFS and CMC to continue to hold S or even move more SE and if they do- so will the UKie and Euro and it's pretty much Katy Bar the Door. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Icon continues S shift on 2nd wave. Clinton is only one on here ( that I know) that gets accumulation. Less than an inch for me, very weak run by the ICON. The 18z run gave me 5-7 lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Yes definitely weak look for others to follow suite. Hopefully not weak like the icon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Nice little curveball on GFS--- really lingers snow in C.IA from 1st wave. Or maybe 2nd wave further N and qucker? Interesting devlopment. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2nd wave is further NW on GFS compared to 18Z-- it really never stops snowing in C.IA for nearly 48 hours. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 What a mess. Waves are so close together. Still like that I'll be in the TC this weekend. Should get something up there. I could get missed north and south down here in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 CMC with a slight shift NW as well. Not as much as GFS- but a good sign that the S trend may have stopped. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 UK coming in now. I'd really like to see it hold onto its morning nw solution. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 UK is another crusher, but south of 12z. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 C'mon, blocking. Relax just a wee bit more, please. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Really would like to see that NWS Blend of models for 00Z..... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS 24 HR precip about a 75 mile shift NW from 18Z in IA 18Z- 00Z - 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 We needed blocking but now have too much. Dang! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro is slower and a bit back north. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro Kuchera- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well, the read I'm getting from tonight's 00z suite is the fact that we are now seeing some consistency in a general swath of heavy snow from near KC/N MO/S IA/N IL/N IN/S MI. I'd like to see tomorrow's 12z suite show another run before getting to excited but I do like where I sit ATM. The 00z Euro held serve with nearly an identical swath of snow but tempered the snow totals which were just not realistic in parts of IA compared to yesterday's 12z. Gosh, when was the last time the south side of Chicago got hit with a major snowstorm and N side was on the edge? It has to be during the Feb '18 Blitz when the SW burbs got 12-16"+. @indianajohn and the others in N IN are probably pretty stoked with the latest model runs. 00z Euro Control... 00z EPS... 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 00z UKIE and GGEM...heading in the right direction over across the lower lakes region...the Canadian is slowly correcting NW... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 NWS Blend for Wave 1... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 06Z GFS- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 DVN more concerned with the Mon/Tues storm... Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Dmx liking the Euro-(Round two) After a brief break in precipitation midday Sunday, round two arrives quickly with a shortwave ejecting out of the southwest quickly on the heels of the departing system. Recent model runs have come into better agreement, however there is still enough spread to decrease forecast confidence going into this period. The deterministic Euro continues with a northerly solution with moderate to heavy precipitation across central and southern Iowa while the GFS remains further south. Important to note here, however is that both the Euro and GFS ensembles have trended in the direction of the deterministic Euro solution in the northerly track. It also appears likely that a wintry mix across the south will be likely again across the south within the warm sector of the cyclone. Though confidence is not high, the recent trends within ensembles have helped narrow the range of possibilities with this second round Sunday evening through Monday. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 I wonder if that watch will be expanded thru the TC. MSP calling for a widespread 3-6". Should end up in an advisory at the least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, james1976 said: I wonder if that watch will be expanded thru the TC. MSP calling for a widespread 3-6". Should end up in an advisory at the least. Solid advisory-level event. There really doesn't appear to be any banding with the snow so I wouldn't think there will be any surprises with higher totals locally. It's gonna snow and we will enjoy it! Safe travels up here! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 06z Euro holding serve for 2nd wave.*** Slight tint N *** edit 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 6z EC 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 31 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z EC I assume all that in Iowa is wave 2 except for far north. That would put me back in the 2-3" range. Better than nothing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, james1976 said: I assume all that in Iowa is wave 2 except for far north. That would put me back in the 2-3" range. Better than nothing! Yes it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 12z NAM much further south than most models. Smashes KC and mby. Still snowing in KC at hr84 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Any chance this comes north about 50-75 miles? If not, I'm out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 NWS Model Blend 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z NAM much further south than most models. Smashes KC and mby. Still snowing in KC at hr84 come on Nam!! make us folks in kc and lawrence happy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Nice read from NOAA w this potential Winterstorm: The second system of perhaps greater interest will generate as a Pacific Wave out of Baja California ejects into the TX/OK and interacts with a baroclinic zone. A developing low pressure system will push northeast into the Ohio Valley late Monday into early Tuesday. The ECMWF and the vast majority of the EPS suite has locked in on this solution over the past 24 hours, where the GEFS is just now converging on this solution with the latest 00Z run, placing the cyclone center over the Ohio Valley by 00Z Tuesday, alongside the EPS SLP average. If this pans out, Cluster Phase Space Analysis of similar solutions show some interesting trowal dynamics over southern Michigan, where a strong u component of the wind lines up around Metro Detroit down into the Ohio Valley -- highlighting an area of interest where strong forcing and efficient moisture transport line up. The WPC extended winter weather outlook highlights this exact area, showing a 30-50 percent chance of exceeding .25 inch liquid equivalent of snow. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Any chance this comes north about 50-75 miles? If not, I'm out. What do you care, you will be in Toledo. Enjoy it there! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Anyone have the 06z EPS mean??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Tom said: Anyone have the 06z EPS mean??? Here ya go. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 The 12z RGEM has moved NW. Nice progress. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 Earlier I posted the wrong ICON. Here is the 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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