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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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I'd expect tonights  GFS and CMC to continue to hold S or even move more SE and if they do- so will the UKie and Euro and it's pretty much Katy Bar the Door.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Nice little curveball on GFS--- really lingers snow in C.IA from 1st wave. Or maybe 2nd wave further N and qucker? Interesting devlopment.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Well, the read I'm getting from tonight's 00z suite is the fact that we are now seeing some consistency in a general swath of heavy snow from near KC/N MO/S IA/N IL/N IN/S MI.  I'd like to see tomorrow's 12z suite show another run before getting to excited but I do like where I sit ATM.  The 00z Euro held serve with nearly an identical swath of snow but tempered the snow totals which were just not realistic in parts of IA compared to yesterday's 12z.

Gosh, when was the last time the south side of Chicago got hit with a major snowstorm and N side was on the edge?  It has to be during the Feb '18 Blitz when the SW burbs got 12-16"+.  @indianajohn and the others in N IN are probably pretty stoked with the latest model runs.

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00z Euro Control...

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00z EPS...

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Dmx liking the Euro-(Round two)

After a brief break in precipitation midday Sunday, round two
arrives quickly with a shortwave ejecting out of the southwest
quickly on the heels of the departing system. Recent model runs have
come into better agreement, however there is still enough spread to
decrease forecast confidence going into this period. The
deterministic Euro continues with a northerly solution with moderate
to heavy precipitation across central and southern Iowa while the
GFS remains further south. Important to note here, however is
that both the Euro and GFS ensembles have trended in the direction
of the deterministic Euro solution in the northerly track. It
also appears likely that a wintry mix across the south will be
likely again across the south within the warm sector of the
cyclone. Though confidence is not high, the recent trends within
ensembles have helped narrow the range of possibilities with this
second round Sunday evening through Monday.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I wonder if that watch will be expanded thru the TC. MSP calling for a widespread 3-6". Should end up in an advisory at the least.

Solid advisory-level event. There really doesn't appear to be any banding with the snow so I wouldn't think there will be any surprises with higher totals locally. It's gonna snow and we will enjoy it! Safe travels up here! 

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Nice read from NOAA w this potential Winterstorm:

The second system of perhaps greater interest will generate as a
Pacific Wave out of Baja California ejects into the TX/OK and
interacts with a baroclinic zone. A developing low pressure system
will push northeast into the Ohio Valley late Monday into early
Tuesday. The ECMWF and the vast majority of the EPS suite has locked
in on this solution over the past 24 hours, where the GEFS is just
now converging on this solution with the latest 00Z run, placing the
cyclone center over the Ohio Valley by 00Z Tuesday, alongside the
EPS SLP average. If this pans out, Cluster Phase Space Analysis of
similar solutions show some interesting trowal dynamics over southern
Michigan, where a strong u component of the wind lines up around
Metro Detroit down into the Ohio Valley -- highlighting an area of
interest where strong forcing and efficient moisture transport line
up. The WPC extended winter weather outlook highlights this exact
area, showing a 30-50 percent chance of exceeding .25 inch liquid
equivalent of snow. 
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Any chance this comes north about 50-75 miles?  If not, I'm out.

I M Out GIF by memecandy

What do you care, you will be in Toledo. Enjoy it there!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The 12z RGEM has moved NW. Nice progress.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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