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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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21 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Personally- and I think others on here would agree with me- this has the potential to miss many on here to the N. Still too much time and that was a REALLY big adjustment N

Really? I've been harping all along that this was more likely to slide south than it is to go north. That TPV in Canada out ahead of the system and anomalous NW passage block will keep this track pretty flat and south.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Β 

(1/1: 6.4")

Β 

Β 

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2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

@GrizzcoatΒ you feel it may come N a bit more yet? Gut feeling or what you seeing?

Also, can we put much stock in a 18z run with no upper air?

Valid point. The non upper air should be mostly mitigated as the system was nearly on shore at 18z (should be for 00Z runs). Others also had non upper air at 18Z.

Gut feeling based on theΒ  rather large jump N in just 6 hours with nearly 72 hours to go for main system in IA. Expect more changes.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The HRRR and NAM say Cedar Rapids/Iowa City will be lucky to get an inch from wave 1.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"Β  Β  Β  '21-22: 27.1"Β  Β  Β  '20-21: 52.5"Β  Β  Β  '19-20: 36.2"Β  Β  Β Β '18-19: 50.2"Β  Β  Β Β '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Clear trend with guidance tonight to shear the wave as it heads east. The Canadian is obviously the most impressive of the bunch in this regard, and probably a bit overzealous, but all of the 00z models so far have done it.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Β 

(1/1: 6.4")

Β 

Β 

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57 minutes ago, whatitdo said:

lmfaooooΒ 

Ikr

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β  Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.1Β Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"Β  (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = xx.x"Β 

Avg = 45.0"Β  (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β  Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β 

Avg = 49.7"Β  (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β  Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β  Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β  Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β  Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β  Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β  Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β  Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β  Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z GFS featured some nice winds, even over to SMI. I think it's been a full decade (GHD-1) without a wind-driven storm of any size here at my place. Would like to see this come back around to being a possibility.

Β 

20210122 18z GFS 78hr Wind Gusts.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)Β Β Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)Β  Β Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9Β Dec: 7.5Β Jan: 31.7 Feb:Β 6.0 Mar: 4.1Β Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"Β  (Harrison):Β 2023-24 = xx.x"Β 

Avg = 45.0"Β  (KDTW):Β 2022-23 = 33.5"Β  Β 2021-22 = 35.6"Β Β Β Β 

Avg = 49.7"Β  (KRMY):Β 2020-21 = 36.2"Β  Β 2019-20 = 48.0"Β  Β 2018-19 =Β 56.1"Β  Β 2017-18 =Β 68.3"Β  Β Β 2016-17 =Β 52"Β  Β Β 2015-16 =Β 57.4"Β  Β Β 2014-15 =Β 55.3"Β  Β Β 2013-14 =Β 100.6"Β (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)Β Β 2012-13 =Β 47.2"Β  Β Β 2011-12 =Β 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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