1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[james1976]

Would a further N trend on wave 1 help pull wave 2 northward?

[jaster220]

I suppose in this warm winter this will be the best we can muster on the old WPC d3-7 maps. "Heavy Precip"

 

[james1976]

4-6 with iso 7" now in the advisory for the TC

[Grizzcoat]

7 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Would a further N trend on wave 1 help pull wave 2 northward?

I dont think so either way. Wave 1 is really a totally separate system- more like a clipper. "Wave 2" is also significantly later than 1--- around 36 hours or more. My .02 is too far apart to interact much if at all.

[james1976]

1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said:

I dont think so either way. Wave 1 is really a totally separate system- more like a clipper. "Wave 2" is also significantly later than 1--- around 36 hours or more. My .02 is too far apart to interact much if at all.

I'm feeling that. I've noticed the GFS has trended toward the Euro with the gap between both waves. GFS had em connected couple days ago.

[Hawkeye]

Euro wave 1

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro is a good bump nw from the 12z for southeast Nebraska, but no change for areas farther east.  Once the system begins to shear out, the precip shield quickly collapses.  This run is actually south of the 18z for many of us.

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Kuchera- still snowing in spots-

[james1976]

Fully sampled?

[james1976]

Missed by 20 miles lmao. I've had a pretty good winter....bound to happen 

[DSM WeatherNut]

17 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro Kuchera- still snowing in spots-

I'd take this in a minute, but probably be more like 7 inches.

 

[jcwxguy]

Bet we probably see watches issued by Saturday afternoon/evening for Monday

[Tom]

00z Euro...holding steady for N IL and the Lower Lakes region...it does appear that the wave weakens as it heads farther east but is slow to exit the region and hangs back some precip over the area which allows for farther accumulation.  This system is loaded with precip.  Snowfall totals for N IL bumped up a bit more and possibly due to colder 850's/2m temps.  I did notice that the 2m temps don't get above 30F for the duration of the event for Chicago and nearly 30+ hours of NE winds off the lake.  This is shaping up to be one of those golden storm opportunities that tap into multiple ways for maximum snow potential into NE IL.  For example, this run shows it snowing for 30+ hrs into NE IL and allows for maximum Lehs/LES. I understand this is just 1 run but the consistency is keeping me excited about the potential.  Been a while since many of us around here enjoyed a legit winter storm.

 

 

00z Euro Control...

 

00z EPS...trending towards a more widespread significant winter storm from the Plains to the Lakes...#sharethewealth

 

 

 

 

[centralweather44]

That north shift continues. Not sure how much more we see of that but it won’t take much for us to be out the game either. Never the best feeling in the bullseye 2 days out. 
 

 

[clintbeed1993]

14 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

That north shift continues. Not sure how much more we see of that but it won’t take much for us to be out the game either. Never the best feeling in the bullseye 2 days out. 
 

 

 

Lincoln is in about as good a spot as you can get for this one. I'm on the outside of the trends now sitting down In St Joe. Looks like this place will defeat from the jaws of victory ONCE AGAIN.  Unbelievable.

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS looks overdone as usual. But it's placement seems on par with most others.

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

06z GFS...still showing a nice hit for N IL...Lehs signal continues to enhance totals lakeside...

 

[jcwxguy]

Oax

 

[Grizzcoat]

6z CMC- shifting N also-

 

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Euro Kuchera-

 

[Grizzcoat]

Maybe a 25-50 mile wabble here or there- but things are getting locked in with system being sampled now. You can see things congealing , though some models and the ultimate result still pending- but it's getting closer.

[Grizzcoat]

Raw #'s for just NW of DSM-- that's some serious QPF along with rather cold 850's

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.60  LON =  -93.88

                                            06Z JAN23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
SAT 06Z 23-JAN -10.6    -6.3    1029      65      50             550     528    
SAT 12Z 23-JAN  -8.8    -5.0    1028      53      78             552     530    
SAT 18Z 23-JAN  -4.3    -4.1    1026      41      74    0.01     552     533    
SUN 00Z 24-JAN  -2.4    -3.8    1020      47      98    0.00     551     536    
SUN 06Z 24-JAN  -1.7    -5.0    1018      58      95    0.03     551     537    
SUN 12Z 24-JAN  -2.1    -3.8    1019      65      62    0.00     550     536    
SUN 18Z 24-JAN  -0.1    -3.3    1021      64      46    0.00     551     535    
MON 00Z 25-JAN  -3.5    -4.0    1020      84      56    0.00     551     536    
MON 06Z 25-JAN  -4.2    -3.1    1019      81      61    0.00     551     536    
MON 12Z 25-JAN  -4.1    -1.3    1014      81      65    0.00     549     538    
MON 18Z 25-JAN  -5.1    -2.9    1011      83      95    0.09     545     537    
TUE 00Z 26-JAN  -4.7    -3.8    1009      86      98    0.40     542     536    
TUE 06Z 26-JAN  -5.5    -8.4    1011      87      97    0.35     541     532    
TUE 12Z 26-JAN  -5.8    -9.3    1013      87      98    0.13     539     529    
TUE 18Z 26-JAN  -6.3    -9.8    1018      86      96    0.12     541     527    
WED 00Z 27-JAN  -6.0    -9.7    1020      87      97    0.05     542     527  

[CentralNebWeather]

At least for much of Nebraska, you could add a Wave 3. NWS Hastings getting more concerned for Wave 2 using the Euro for the area as snow conference and chances are increasing. Yes. They then mentioned lingering snow until Wave 3 comes. Just like the Euro and Canadian are showing. Said headlines probably coming. Still mentioned NAM and GFS not as bullish yet. All valid points. 

[Grizzcoat]

Folks in E.NE and IA - this is going to be AN epic week for snowfall.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just looked at all my weather apps and totals keep increasing. Now my interest has been peaked. Could get rather exciting in this area Sunday night through Wednesday morning. Snow Day?  Haven’t missed one minute this year in our school district for snow, ice, or Covid. Rather remarkable actually. 

[bud2380]

My point forecast says 5-9”

[dubuque473]

Looking at 1-2” here for tonight.

[BMT]

Seems 12z NAM and HRRR are trending better for CR area tonight.  Maybe we will manage to get more than 1"

[St Paul Storm]

Latest model runs lifting the heavier axis of snow a bit father north. Now reaching parts of the TC. Liking the trends this morning. Good chance at reaching the higher end of the forecasted amounts. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z NAM. Only goes to 84 hours. Wave 3 is still in Southwest Kansas ready to move northeast, so add more inches later imo. 

[Hawkeye]

Southern Iowa appears to be locked in.  I'd like to see the snow band lift a bit more northward.

[Tom]

@Clinton, you got the 06z EPS?

[bud2380]

The RDPS is going crazy with totals.  It just keeps snowing.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The RDPS is going crazy with totals.  It just keeps snowing.  

 

Wouldn’t you think these are overblown?  Great to look at though. We just rarely ever see totals anywhere near these in the Central Plains. 

[Hawkeye]

It's too bad waves 1 and 2 could not overlap a bit more more.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is holding.

[Sciascia]

[tStacsh]

15 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS is holding.

A tick south for me.  But Chicago gets pummeled.