1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[hlcater]

This stuff is pure fluff. 2.2” down just now. Very picturesque winter night. Should get to 2.5 when all is said and done. 

[Hawkeye]

6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This stuff is pure fluff. 2.2” down just now. Very picturesque winter night. Should get to 2.5 when all is said and done. 

I also just reached outside and measured 2.2" on the deck, although I can't take my official measurement there because the wind is blowing off the roof.  Radar says we are about done.

[Grizzcoat]

06 NAM is N fwiw

[Grizzcoat]

as is 3KM and a bit W-- hopefully a sign with new 06Z data- that D**n Euro though.....

[Grizzcoat]

3KM NAM - basically in between waves in IOWA- 10:1

[Tom]

31 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This stuff is pure fluff. 2.2” down just now. Very picturesque winter night. Should get to 2.5 when all is said and done. 

Gorgeous landscape!  Very nice way to start off a Sunday morning, eh???  Snow-on-Snow is something just beautiful.  Keep building the glacier out there!

[Tom]

00z Euro did weaken a bit more this run but still solid 6-10" across N IL which has been my thinking the last couple days.  I do wonder how much lake influence there will be since 850's will not be terribly cold and result in a marginal set up.  Nevertheless, I'm still impressed to see how consistent it has been for several days now.  Like Grizz said, we're pretty much locked on track just the finer details to iron out.

 

NWS Blend looks pretty solid...I would imagine watch's be extended farther east later this morning, if not the next couple hours.

 

[Hawkeye]

My snow total tonight is 2.3".  I'm quite happy with that.

[Hawkeye]

06z RDPS back north.  Obviously, the enormous totals are nonsense.

[Grizzcoat]

Watches expanded in IA- and Warnings issued for most previous Watch areas. Unreal early.

[Grizzcoat]

[Tom]

06z NAM/ICON show some solid qpf for N IL...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Watches expanded in IA- and Warnings issued for most previous Watch areas. Unreal early.

They must feel darn confident....I'm not really surprised though, the models are pretty much locked in for E NE/IA folks.  As I expected, LOT just issued a watch for our region!  I'm digging this set up for my locale.  Congrats on another Winter Storm warning buddy...keep 'em coming as they say.

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
305 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

...Potential Increasing for a Significant Winter Storm Across
Northern Illinois Monday Afternoon into Tuesday...

ILZ006-013-103>108-INZ001-241800-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0001.210125T2200Z-210126T2300Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein,
Gurnee, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard,
Carol Stream, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine,
Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange,
Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, Park Forest,
Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan,
Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, Beecher, Gary, Hammond,
and Merrillville
305 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow, heavy at times. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9
  inches possible. Northeast winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northeast Illinois and parts of Northwest Indiana.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Hazardous conditions
  may impact the Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freezing rain or sleet may mix in with the
  snow at times, mainly late Monday afternoon and evening for
  locales south of I-88. Some power outages are possible due to
  the combined effects of the expected wetter nature of the snow
  and strong and gusty winds.

 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX moving N and up'ing totals-

[Tom]

Boy, you guys in SE NE and prob into parts of S IA stand a good chance to see thundersnow...that's a beauty of a setup to deliver the goods...thunderstorms in KS wrapping into the cold sector where the ULL will track.  You guys are in for a treat.

[Tom]

Question, for anyone who wants to contribute...how much snow do you have OTG currently???  Based off of this map, its rather spotty in WI while IA/N IL is generally underneath a solid snowpack.  Our members in MN (except for the northern most members) are generally doing well also.

 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX really hammered it in the  AFD. Odd- that I don't  agree- but hey, they get pensions and not me!!

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Question, for anyone who wants to contribute...how much snow do you have OTG currently???  Based off of this map, its rather spotty in WI while IA/N IL is generally underneath a solid snowpack.  Our members in MN (except for the northern most members) are generally doing well also.

 

1" at KDSM,, lots of bare spots mixed in with 2-3" Avg is 1"-- even after the paltry .4" of last night. Just enough to send traffic into the puckerbrush with little/no road crews out.

[Tom]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

1" at KDSM,, lots of bare spots mixed in with 2-3" Avg is 1"

Wow, you guys melted a lot of that snow from earlier last week?  That kinda stinks.  Hey, can't complain in an AN pattern to see the amount of snow you have been lucky to.  Cheers for more snow to come this week!

Btw, I, to, have about 1" OTG with some spotty grassy areas showing up where the sun hits longer throughout the day and esp near darker objects.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Gfs is N.

 

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Wow, you guys melted a lot of that snow from earlier last week?  That kinda stinks.  Hey, can't complain in an AN pattern to see the amount of snow you have been lucky to.  Cheers for more snow to come this week!

Btw, I, to, have about 1" OTG with some spotty grassy areas showing up where the sun hits longer throughout the day and esp near darker objects.

That's been the routine here since late Summer/early fall. Lots of precip- than nothing with warmup- than more precip. This pattern has repeated itself , but now seems to be increasing with events.

[Grizzcoat]

Can't remember the last time Warnings were issues this far advance here. Might be good (should)- but who knows. Sometimes instead of being gun shy- they let'er her loose only to get the low end. That's still not outta of the question.

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter Storm Warning. NWS Hastings points out this is only until 3 AM Tuesday and doesn’t include Wave 3. Kind of odd. I wonder if they extend later or change to advisory on Tuesday. Let’s rock. Hoping for a snow day or two?  

[Grizzcoat]

When your hot - your hot. I still don't think I'am splitting those ten cards - yet. (Blackjack talking) - I shoudve left the casino last week.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings has most of the area between 6-11”, again not counting the Tuesday into Wednesday AM event that is probably a 2-4”.  The area then would be in for 8-15”totals using their predictions. Hard to be upset with those numbers. 

[Grizzcoat]

Glad I stayed around.... The drinks are stiff...

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings has most of the area between 6-11”, again not counting the Tuesday into Wednesday AM event that is probably a 2-4”.  The area then would be in for 8-15”totals using their predictions. Hard to be upset with those numbers. 

From sitting on the sidelines a few days ago, to now being in the bullseye!  Quite the turnaround for NE peeps...good luck out there!

[Grizzcoat]

Long Range RAP--- 25" in OMA-

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

From sitting on the sidelines a few days ago, to now being in the bullseye!  Quite the turnaround for NE peeps...good luck out there!

It is rather amazing to be honest. Would be our largest event since Feb. 1-2, 2016 blizzard if it verifies. Thanks @Tom

[CentralNebWeather]

06 GFS through 108 hours. 

[Grizzcoat]

From experience- don't get  greedy with those higher Kuchera totals and than be let down. Expect about 10:1 or less. Still- likely the best event of the winter. Looking at around 7-9" here.

[CentralNebWeather]

06 NAM 

[Grizzcoat]

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

06 GFS through 108 hours. 

That site is usually conservative based on ratios they use. Good sign.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

That site is usually conservative based on ratios they use. Good sign.

That is what I thought. 

[Grizzcoat]

One can see this baby wrapping up in extreme S.CA / N Baja.  I always love seeing where storms are- before they come. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-14-24-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[CentralNebWeather]

Local grid forecast. Tonight 1-3”, Monday 5-8”, Tuesday 2-6”. Not too shabby. 

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Local grid forecast. Tonight 1-3”, Monday 5-8”, Tuesday 2-6”. Not too shabby. 

Winter is Back!

[clintbeed1993]

I find it kind of hilarious that the least trustworthy run of the GFS is the first one that's actually matched all the other models

[clintbeed1993]

Here's another one I'll have to drive back to my parents in Aurora NE for. A chin hair miss to the North at my house.

[Grizzcoat]

Been awhile since I've seen WPC with 8" progs like this for my area.