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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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GFS also lower qpf in eastern Iowa. Although still has a foot for Iowa city. I guess I have to accept that we won’t be in the 12-18” band over here. 6-11” is the official NWS forecast and is probably pretty good. Although it’s a pretty wide range. 

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19 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

@Tom Finally is right!! Last few years everything has been either north or south of me. What are the chances this overproduces? 

50/50 I'd say...if you can get underneath a heavy band or two it can stack up.  The heaviest totals with this system are going to be very close to our area.  I don't think you'll benefit from the lake as much as on our side, but maybe later in the week when the next storm tracks to our south the lake can produce even more lake effect.

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So far, my area is in store for a 3-6 inch event, which I will gladly approve.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/page-3-16.jpg?w=632

  • Snow 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Boom...

 

Thanks Tom!!! Wow the snow shield for the state has really expanded! Bring on a back loaded winter baby! 

 

PS. Smoking some ribs and poor man's burnt ends and will be routing on my Buffalo Bills! We have a layer of ice from last night's snow/drizzle throw on the snow we are about to receive and things are gonna be slick as heck. 

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Another burst of snow after I went to bed boosted my overnight snow total to 2.6"... an overperformer.

Regarding the big storm, it's just not ideal to have the system shearing out as it traverses the region.  The snow band over se NE into sw IA should be quite intense.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wave1 about to kick in mby!

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
332 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-250845-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
332 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An inch or two of snow is expected today as an upper level frontal
system moves across the region.

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1142 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

MIZ068>070-075-076-241815-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,
and Detroit
1142 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...

WEATHER...

 * Light to occasional bursts of moderate snow will move through
   the greater Detroit metro region, Ann Arbor, and remaining
   areas between I-94 and M-59 through early afternoon.

 * Quick snowfall rates of around a half inch per hour will lead
   to snow-covered roadways as temperatures remain in the mid 20s,
   and will lead to slippery and hazardous travel conditions
   especially for untreated roadways. Untreated surfaces such as
   sidewalks and parking lots will also become slippery as a quick
   coating of snow is achieved.

 * Snow will taper off to periodic snow showers by 1 to 2 pm.

IMPACTS...

 * Visibility less than one mile within any heavier bursts of
   snow.

 * Accumulating snow may lead to slippery roads particularly on
   bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.
  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UK has dropped totals a few inches in eastern Iowa. Had 10.8” last night for IC. Down to 7” this run

We do have to remember that all model runs up to last night's 00z include the wave 1 snowfall.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yes model runs today look generally on track with what was expected last night save for the UK and HRRR which were actually drier, and the GFS which was wetter. That said, there is the possibility that models are weakening the snow too quickly as it goes east. All that said, OMA and LNK are locked in for 8” or more. I still could feasibly see 10” or more in CR/IC, but 8” is a more reasonable bet. We’d be locked in for a foot if only the wave didn’t decay so fast. Sad!

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Looking like we'll actually see snow ratios in the realm of 12:1 (per a coalition of RAP/NAM), in contrast to the ~10:1 ratios previously expected. Canadian guidance starts ratios out at 14:1 early tomorrow morning before narrowing a bit towards 12:1 ... all in all, looking like the Kuchera maps could be a little more realistic (at least locally) than I was under the impression of.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

They must feel darn confident....I'm not really surprised though, the models are pretty much locked in for E NE/IA folks.  As I expected, LOT just issued a watch for our region!  I'm digging this set up for my locale.  Congrats on another Winter Storm warning buddy...keep 'em coming as they say.

 

Congrats amigo! I bet it feels great to be in the game. Looks like I'll be waiting longer to get blue boxed. Had such hopes after early Euro runs like this one. Been trolled by that model way too much the past 3 seasons.

 

20210120 12z Euro h138 Snow KCH.png

  • scream 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NWS Omaha tinkering with the WSWarning text within the last half hour:

 

Quote

1056 AM CST Sun Jan 24 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO
3 AM CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 13
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Nebraska and
  southwest Iowa.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 3 AM CST Tuesday.

 

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Congrats amigo! I bet it feels great to be in the game. Looks like I'll be waiting longer to get blue boxed. Had such hopes after early Euro runs like this one. Been trolled by that model way too much the past 3 seasons.

 

20210120 12z Euro h138 Snow KCH.png

Thanks Jaster!  It does feel nice to finally be in the mix, however, the weakening of the wave as it heads East has me a bit concerned.  As of now, I’m thinking the 6” threshold is a safe bet, not including the wild card for lehs.  I feel for ya bud, you and I have been on the sidelines way to much in recent years.  Hey, at least you’ll get something rather than nothing or a RN/SN mix slop fest.  Gotta look at the bright side of things.

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Taking 12z GFS verbatim: 1.5 QPF at KLNK with temps in the mid 20s, falling as all snow. Literally something you would see at hour 360, not hour 24. Kind of a random comment, but it just feels unreal. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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5 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Taking 12z GFS verbatim: 1.5 QPF at KLNK with temps in the mid 20s, falling as all snow. Literally something you would see at hour 360, not hour 24. Kind of a random comment, but it just feels unreal. 

Things are looking really good for Omaha and Lincoln... this looks to be the type of Winter storm system that we have all been waiting several years for. One thing that is going to be a big bonus with this storm is that the heaviest snow will be falling during the day time hours.  

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