1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm

[East Dubzz]

This storm just dying the further it heads East sucks.

[Hawkeye]

The RDPS came back down to Earth and is more similar to other models.

[Stormhunter87]

Snow has made it to the KS/NE border. Now we wait

[OmahaSnowFan]

26 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

My kids school (that was in remote learning earlier) said if we get a snow day- were treating it like before CV-19. so no school. Had one in the blizzard. Maybe tomorrow?? I like it- let the kids enjoy the snow!!!

My wife’s a teacher and she said we might just let her miss school tomorrow

[DSM WeatherNut]

41 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Probably more realistic-

Still incredible in the short term..  most models seem all in on the details. 

[The Snowman]

27 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Rgem

RGEM with a clear vendetta against Omaha

[Grizzcoat]

GFS

[jcwxguy]

Gfs

[Grizzcoat]

I don't think it can physically snow that hard that quick in IA-- those lake effect rates. unreal

[bud2380]

GFS still right at a foot for Iowa city. I hope it’s right. 

[Hawkeye]

If you're the NWS, what do you do about the hw20 corridor in Iowa (Waterloo, Fort Dodge).  The current NWS snow map says 0-4" in Fort Dodge and 1-7" in Waterloo.  Waterloo is in the advisory area and Fort Dodge has no advisory at all.  The NWS has been hammering south, south, south.  However, both NAMs and the GFS show 6-10" in the Fort Dodge to Waterloo corridor.

[Jaycee]

I’m going 3-6” here in the city. Have fun Nebraska! Take vids and pics

[Bellona]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

If you're the NWS, what do you do about the hw20 corridor in Iowa (Waterloo, Fort Dodge).  The current NWS snow map says 0-4" in Fort Dodge and 1-7" in Waterloo.  Waterloo is in the advisory area and Fort Dodge has no advisory at all.  The NWS has been hammering south, south, south.  However, both the NAMs and the GFS show 6-10" in the Fort Dodge to Waterloo corridor.

I'm actually wondering that myself; and not just because I live in the south side of Waterloo. Lol. 

[hlcater]

4 minutes ago, Bellona said:

I'm actually wondering that myself; and not just because I live in the south side of Waterloo. Lol. 

The CAMs are north too in Iowa, or actually rather wider with the snow band than some of the op runs are. They are also wetter and do bring 9-10" through CR/IC.

These model runs are historic for Nebraska though. It is not impossible that there are a few 18s or 20s in OAX's CWA. With our climo, that's gotta be a 1 in 100 year storm for any one location.

[bud2380]

GFS v16 shows 15” of snow for Omaha between noon and 6pm.  

[jaster220]

0z GFS and NAM for here giving 3-4" at 10:1 or 4-6" via Kuchera. Meanwhile my office text has me at 2.5"

As much as I'd like to have confidence in the models, this winter has proven that the low-ball call is $$

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

GFS v16 shows 15” of snow for Omaha between noon and 6pm.  

TSSN

[The Snowman]

Just now, bud2380 said:

GFS v16 shows 15” of snow for Omaha between noon and 6pm.  

Can you imagine having a GFS run with HRRR snow dynamics? Give me runs with 48 hours of 5" snow rates 

[The Snowman]

Operational GFS with Kuchera snow totals. Typical caveats with these Kuchera calculations apply.

[Grizzcoat]

HREF 24 hr ensemble MEAN (not max) snowfall totals. (through 6pm tomorrow) -- still snowing.

[jcwxguy]

6 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS v16 shows 15” of snow for Omaha between noon and 6pm.  

 

[BMT]

canadian 

[jcwxguy]

03rap

[Grizzcoat]

For sure a N trend and expansion of snow field in iA with most guidance tonight. Exactly what you want if your in IA and like snow.

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

03rap

For MICHINDIO, these are waayy south of the globals. Guessing they include sleet as there's nothing supporting 6+ of snow in IWX's southern counties.

[jaster220]

20 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Operational GFS with Kuchera snow totals. Typical caveats with these Kuchera calculations apply.

I'd like to have seen a modern day Kuchera map version of this:

 

[Hawkeye]

GFSv16 storm total

[The Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

GFSv16 storm total

Perfect counter to the RGEM's Omaha donut hole

[jaster220]

v16 continues to show the luv here. Been rock steady for several runs in that regard. Hope it scores a coup

Meanwhile @whatitdo Dude, where r you??

Looks like the bleeding may have stopped for us and maybe we get a little last-minute bump even?

Either way, we "could" be looking at the best event of the season. I know the Stach-trio are on the road, but you should be here with some comments, eh?

This don't look so bad tbh:

 

[hlcater]

UK is on the low end of the spectrum but not as bad as the NAM/Euro. Is probably an 8" storm for CR/IC.

[Hawkeye]

This is why several models are now spreading the snow so far north in Iowa.  The 500 mb low has crept up into central IA.

[Hawkeye]

1 minute ago, hlcater said:

UK is on the low end of the spectrum but not as bad as the NAM/Euro. Is probably an 8" storm for CR/IC.

The UK is not the only model dropping more snow on Waterloo than Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

This is why these models are now spreading the snow so far north in Iowa.  The 500 mb low has crept up into central IA.

Why I'm not a fan of the go north, turn right systems. Unless ofc you're on the NW side like Nebraska is

[Hawkeye]

The Wednesday wave has crapped out on the models, and shifted south.

[hlcater]

10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The UK is not the only model dropping more snow on Waterloo than Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.

The models doing that are also the ones that are super crappy in CR.

 

Also that wednesday wave never really looked good for more than an inch for our area.

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow has begun. Huge flakes. 

[james1976]

Really liking the N trend! Like Hawkeye said, it will be interesting to see what the NWS does for the corridor between Waterloo and Ft Dodge. Tonight's Euro will have something to say about that.

[DSM WeatherNut]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This is why several models are now spreading the snow so far north in Iowa.  The 500 mb low has crept up into central IA.

Go away now.... lol

[james1976]

Driving home tonight from the TC there was quite a bit of fog north of Albert Lea into N IA. Definitely some low level moisture. Idk if that means anything with the incoming system but it made me think bout it.

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Snow has begun. Huge flakes. 

Another vid that is just the control bar and nothing above it. Anyone know what's the cause?