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1/23 - 1/26 Two Wave Major Winter Storm


Tom

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Another vid that is just the control bar and nothing above it. Anyone know what's the cause?

same thing happened to me on work computer (probably doesn't support that type of file) -- but it worked on my phone.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'm still thinking a solid 6"+ snowstorm is in the works for Chicago and the burbs which seems like its been centuries ago.Β  I don't like howΒ the modelsΒ showΒ the precip shield split into two waves.Β  We're going to have to bank on the energy that hangs back in the defo zone.Β  Hopefully the thunderstorms down across the OHV don't rob us of the moisture.

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The Euro still spitting out 0.60"-0.70"" of liquid for Chicagoland and add to that the wild car Lehs/LES on the back side Tue-Wed.Β  While this won't be the potentially historic snowstorm that you guys out west are going to enjoy, I'll take my 6" or more of snow plusΒ the gusty winds any day of the week.Β  Add to that the LES bonus and its a win-win in my book.Β  You can't win them all in a season that has been such a struggle.Β Β 

00z Euro... @jaster220Β and MI crew, not the greatest but not the saddest run we've seen this season...

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

NWS forecast...

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I think this is what you get when you goto "hourly weather forecast" on your local NWS page. Here is an example for KDSM- right where the 11 is-- add these up and you get 10.9"image.thumb.png.ff81e954cdecb40bc6c8aa173ed05df0.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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What will be a big clue to see if the lake will be our friend, is if the lake effect band that develops later this morning is anything noteworthy.Β  The higher rez models show a burst of lake effect snow into Cook/Lake/DuPage counties later this morning.Β  Hopefully that will provide us with a nice teaser.

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Noticeable trend tonight on guidance to linger light snow well into tuesday across much of Eastern Iowa. This is a different evolution than was previously forecast and may be some of the reason that the bleeding has stopped. NAMs show 8-10" for CR/IC.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8")Β 

(1/1: 6.4")

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i think this is what the short range and NAM are seeing for moving the precip back S- DRY AIR- dewpoints around 0Β  that will eventually be advected in--- I see not much - if any- extension of current headlines in IA. image.thumb.png.cfa4fb2f8f0de95a6328ed479aa64a05.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Hmmm, this has perked my interest...as we get closer in time, it appears the LES potential on the backside of the storm looking better.Β  The NAM fam try to keep a lake plume (convergence)Β into NE IL for hours on end...that would be a fantastic development if true.

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Some hefty localized totals for NE IL...

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Maybe not 1 in a million - but like 1 in 1000. Literally if you do the math, it's pretty darn close. Here's a toast to those enjoying their biggest snow event in many years. Old school here, if you know Trixter, you've had some BIG DOGS!!!Β  Your time is coming for those not seeing this event. KEEP THE FAITH.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Getting some nice appetizer snow bands before the main course today. Should have a couple inches on the ground by sunrise.Β  That heavy snow band with 12+ inches is just a couple counties south of me on models, let's see if I can get a nice surprise. Should snow like crazy for 12 hours. Will only get a few hours of sleep tonight, but WORTH IT.Β  My call for Aurora Nebraska is 10 inches

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^^ could still happen-- but been my thoughts for sometime. I think HRRR and RAP over the last few years have been able to read into that.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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